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View Full Version : Latest Newsweek poll has Kerry up 49% to 46% over Bush


Volcana
Oct 3rd, 2004, 06:22 PM
Meaning not too fucking much, except it's the first poll since the Republican convention that's had Kerry ahead. It's also the first poll since a couple weeks into the SwiftVet smear campaign where that he's polled that high. Still you have to figure the Republican will steal a couple states with the Diebold machines, so until Kerry hits a double digits lead, I figure he's really behind.

Bacardi
Oct 3rd, 2004, 06:41 PM
I don't know, I think the polls don't accurately tell the entire story. I think mostly they are lies put out in front of the media to give the Republicans an edge. Because they feel a lot of people won't vote for a lie.

Also, those polls don't accurately get everyone in the 18-25 year old voters polled, and I can tell you very few of those, if any will vote for the Bush administration.

gweeny
Oct 3rd, 2004, 06:48 PM
I just hope this "Vote or Die" and "choose or lose" campaigns works for the democrats. If young people register and VOTE, then Kerry has a great chance.

Bacardi
Oct 3rd, 2004, 06:54 PM
Because think, how many 18-25 year olds visit sites like CNN/NEWSWEEK/ETC? Not very many. Plus the mail polls that have been mailed out, at least around here has been mailed out to older registered voters. I did however get a phone call, last week, from a Charlottesville, VA news channel with a recording wanting me to tell them who I'm voting for.

I just don't believe the polls, especially when I see how Bush is connected to Clear Channel which controls most of the news/media/radio. It's all a vicious circle. Besides if we recall correctly back when it was Bush vs. Clinton, all the polls had Bush ahead as well, until time came to record the ballots and Clinton won it big time. I think the same thing's going to happen this year.

Volcana
Oct 3rd, 2004, 09:06 PM
I don't think the polls are inaccurate per se. I think that, in many ways, they reflect the reality how people get their news, and the resources availble to the two candidates.

Bush has given fewer news conferences than have been recorded for any President. Certainly since the Civil War. His handlers very carefuly control his images. When he gives interviews, it's Republican-controlled interviewers Answering carefully scripted questions. When he finally agreed to appear before the 9/11 commission, it was only with Cheney at his side, and only questions of a very limited scope. To get into a campaign event, you have to have a ticket, and usually sign a loyalty oath. And the only way to get a ticket, for 90% of people, is to work on a Republican phone bank. He simply doesn't take independent questioning.

The one time people have SEEN Bush react under pressure before this past debate is captured for all to see in Fahrenheit 9/11. When informed of the 2nd plane hitting the World Trade Center, he completely froze. He was totally unable to give commands in a crisis.

The other side of the coin is, Bush has alomst 200 million dollars to spend onhis advertising campaign, and a lot of it has been spent denigrationg Kerry, and funding/supporting things like the SwiftVets smear campaign.

The result of all this? Bush supporters, AND 'undecideds', thought Bush is a vastly smarter, more competent leader than he is. Bush supporters, AND 'undecideds', thought Kerry vastly LESS competent, less principle, and less consistent than HE is.

And then the debate came. And Kerry turned out to be calmer, better informed, and more cogent than Bush relentless campaign advertising had led people to believe. And Bush was exposed as, well, unfocused, and unthinking, capable of repeating what he's trained to say, but almost without the ability to think on his feet, or accept challenge calmly.

People saw that there's less to Bush than he carefully crafted image, and that there's more to Kerry than they'd been led to believe.

But it's all about what people have an actual chance to see. The polls have refected people's intentions based on what they've seen of both candidates. The debate was the first time they got to see them measured directly against each other.

There's a website I very much like caled http://pollingreport.com

They give you the results of all the most recent polls. Kerry got as big a bounce off the debate as Bush did off the Republican convention.

ptkten
Oct 3rd, 2004, 09:40 PM
Also, polls don't take into account newly registered voters, much of which are young students.

wta_zuperfann
Oct 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
What is especially interesting is how the Swift Boat Veterans's lies had an immediate impact on the ratings. It took a while but eventually their lies became exposed and fully refuted. Thereafter, their lies about Kerry's heroism had no further impact on the campaign.

Today, the Bushsh¡t campaign is desperately trying to put down Kerry through attack ads that feature the foulest lies imaginable. Note how these lies have not impacted on the poll ratings. I guess the reason is that people have finally awakened to the truth that Bushsh¡t, Fox, and the Republican party are the biggest liars anywhere and that they have absolutely no credibility whatsoever.

It's time for a change = let's send Bush and his lies out to pasture. :fiery:

MisterQ
Oct 3rd, 2004, 10:12 PM
I think CNN said that new CNN/Gallup poll results are being announced at 6 pm ET today.

of course we must always be skeptical of the results. but i'm always happy if I see potentially good news, lol. ;)

Bacardi
Oct 3rd, 2004, 10:27 PM
This from Newsweek.com

Kerry’s perceived victory may be attributed to the fact that, by a wide margin (62 percent to 26 percent), debate watchers felt the senator came across as more confident than the president. More than half (56 percent) also see Kerry has having a better command of the facts than Bush (37 percent). As a result, the challenger’s favorability ratings (52 percent, versus 40 percent unfavorable) are better than Bush’s, who at 49 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable), has dipped below the halfway mark for the first time since July. Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likeable than Bush (47 percent to the president’s 41 percent).

MisterQ
Oct 3rd, 2004, 11:43 PM
I think CNN said that new CNN/Gallup poll results are being announced at 6 pm ET today.

of course we must always be skeptical of the results. but i'm always happy if I see potentially good news, lol. ;)

Here are the new Gallup Poll results: :eek:


candidate...................likely voters................registered voters

Bush............................49%............... .............49%
Kerry...........................49%............... .............47%
Nader............................1%............... ..............1%

Bacardi
Oct 3rd, 2004, 11:46 PM
Why the hell can't they kick Nader out? I mean I agree with his stance on things, but even I know a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush in the end.

It's going to be a nailbiter. But I still think that Kerry's going to win it by an over 10% margin in the polls Nov 2nd

MisterQ
Oct 3rd, 2004, 11:52 PM
When I look at percentages in polls, I am encouraged (as a Kerry supporter). But when I look at the electoral college map (blue vs. red states, and the swing states), I am more nervous.... :scared:

Freewoman33
Oct 4th, 2004, 12:44 AM
When I look at percentages in polls, I am encouraged (as a Kerry supporter). But when I look at the electoral college map (blue vs. red states, and the swing states), I am more nervous.... :scared:

My sentiments exactly.



Seeing that the polls show both in a dead heat, I'm just waiting for the next terror alert from the government.

jbone_0307
Oct 4th, 2004, 01:10 AM
You guys should seriously hear what some people are saying about Bush. Its ridiculous. In a way, I want Bush to win, so he can show all of his supporters how worse it could get, and they would still probably deny it and blame it on other. If you guys would hear some of their comments, its funny, but at the same time sad, I think he has them brainwashed. I know Sen. Kerry isn't the picturisque candidate. Some of those guys were blaming the troops death on Kerry and just about everything. And they wont say anything when I say, "If we weren't over there, then none of this were to be happening" and his response is well we are over there. Its like they cant even admit when their candidate makes a mistake.

CC
Oct 4th, 2004, 01:13 AM
:banana: :banana: :banana: :banana:

CJ07
Oct 4th, 2004, 01:38 AM
Regardless of what the polls say, Georgie's gonna win

You know he'll steal it again if he has to

Yes I'm Republican, but that was just rediculous