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View Full Version : Venus chances to make the YEC


backhanddtl4
Sep 13th, 2004, 03:47 AM
What are her chances?..I really hope she makes it...

ys
Sep 13th, 2004, 04:42 AM
My question would be: Is she even interested in playing this fall? I would not be surprised if she doesn't play before Sydney.. By her standards, the year has been wasted and there is not much left to play for.. Would she play full schedule in Europe just for the purpose of qualifying in LA? I am not sure.

WF4EVER
Sep 13th, 2004, 04:59 AM
Maybe she's not concerned about qualifying for the YEC; I really don't think she is, but she may want to get her ranking up a bit going into the AO.

SelesFan70
Sep 13th, 2004, 05:03 AM
Slim to none..but no one in Los Angeles will attend anyways. Move it back to NYC! :mad:

shap_half
Sep 13th, 2004, 05:04 AM
They better move it back to NYC

treufreund
Sep 13th, 2004, 05:52 AM
GO SERENA! MARIA and CAPPY! ;)

just kidding ;)

LenaDFan
Sep 13th, 2004, 05:59 AM
I hope the Williams sisters don't make it...I hate it when they win..

Knizzle
Sep 13th, 2004, 06:33 AM
Let's assume she wants to make it, because otherwise, the question is moot.

01 MAURESMO......... 4527.00 18
02 MYSKINA.......... 4155.00 20
03 DAVENPORT........ 4057.00 15
04 HENIN-HARDENNE... 4004.00 13
05 DEMENTIEVA....... 3368.00 22
06 KUZNETSOVA....... 3014.25 21
07 CLIJSTERS........ 2815.00 10
08 CAPRIATI......... 2598.00 14
09 SHARAPOVA........ 2570.00 18
10 WILLIAMS......... 2273.00 09
11 ZVONAREVA........ 2146.00 24
12 WILLIAMS......... 2145.00 13

01-04 are just too far ahead.
Venus is currently earning 165 points per tournament (ppt).
She defends nothing the rest of the year.
So add 165 * 4 = 660 points to her total.
That's 2805. That WOULD get her in. BUT....
Serena will also only add points, and she's ahead of Venus, and earning more ppt.
Jenn will also only add points, and she's ahead of Venus, and earning more ppt.
Kim is ahead of Venus, but she's defending points.
Justine is just too far ahead.
Venus' best case scenrio, playing as she is now, is

01 MAURESMO
02 MYSKINA
03 DAVENPORT
04 HENIN-HARDENNE
05 DEMENTIEVA
06 KUZNETSOVA
07 CAPRIATI
08 WILLIAMS, S
09 SHARAPOVA
10 WILLIAMS, V

Looks to me like one out of Capriati, Sharapova, S.Williams isn't gonna make it.
Venus would have to win a Tier I, plus something else.
If she plays (and wins) Zurich AND Moscow, she could make it.


It doesn't matter who is defending points unless you are referring to players being under pressure to defend their points therefore making them less likely to gain alot of points at a certain tournament.

Knizzle
Sep 13th, 2004, 06:35 AM
Volcana I would think someone who deals with stats as much as you do would know that the race to the champs standings are used to see who gets in the YEC not the 52 week rankings.

tennisIlove09
Sep 13th, 2004, 06:37 AM
i think right now Vee is still in the top 8 point collectors for this season ;) if she's healthy, I'm sure she'll play

Lemonskin.
Sep 13th, 2004, 06:47 AM
She'll be ousted by Maria :D

VSFan1 aka Joshua L.
Sep 14th, 2004, 12:27 AM
I don't like the top 8 thingy :(

spartanfan
Sep 14th, 2004, 12:31 AM
The player who needs to worry about the YEC is Clijsters, who won the thing last year. Before the USO she was in 17th place to go and was like 1200 points from 8th place, which is far from the 800 or so points she won last year after the USO and before the YEC. And at the YEC she won over 700 points. It looks like she may not even end the year in the TOP 10.

William Hunt
Sep 14th, 2004, 01:10 AM
They should make it 16 players again instead of 8 !

WF4EVER
Sep 14th, 2004, 02:05 AM
If Venus intends to qualify for the YEC the two tournaments she's committed to doesn't demonstrate that.

Also, as far as I know, the YEC points have nothing to do with defending. They are earned per match won and do not have to be defended from one year to the next, just like Knizzle said. Of course not getting into the YEC could sink Kim lower than ever because her rankings points will be in jeopardy. Is there any possibility of her qualifying if she plays about six tourneys?

Again I say I don't believe Venus cares about qualifying, but if she adds a tournament or two we'll know for sure. Perhaps these commitments were based on her hope that she would do well leading into the USO and out of it.

Volcana
Sep 14th, 2004, 03:14 AM
If Venus intends to qualify for the YEC the two tournaments she's committed to doesn't demonstrate that.

Also, as far as I know, the YEC points have nothing to do with defending.It doesn't matter who is defending points unless you are referring to players being under pressure to defend their points therefore making them less likely to gain alot of points at a certain tournament.You're both absolutely right. That was a stupid post and I'm removing it.

switz
Sep 14th, 2004, 03:51 AM
i think venus always has a chance. i would argue indoors is one of best surfaces, whereas capriati is usually terrible during the european indoor season, sharapova is kind of untested by unlikely to have a major impact judging from the US, and Zvonareva is a great player but again this is not her best surface and she would probably wilt under pressure of securing a place.

if venus plays well (which i have a feeling she will) i think serena is going to be her biggest hurdle.

then again i have just realised that i was looking at volcana's ranking which are 52 week - so i don't know hoe close she is.

patty is going to win every indoor event anyway so she will take another place

tennischick
Sep 14th, 2004, 04:46 AM
switz i adore your confidence in Patty. ;)

VSFan1 aka Joshua L.
Sep 14th, 2004, 04:03 PM
Oddly enough, Patty is exceptional at indoors.

Ted of Teds Tennis
Sep 14th, 2004, 04:25 PM
Don't forget that the WTA can, under "exceptional circumstances", arbitrarily select the 8th player. If Sharapova ends up at #9 in the race, do you think they'll pick her over either Crapriati or Venus Williams?

Infiniti2001
Sep 14th, 2004, 05:20 PM
Don't forget that the WTA can, under "exceptional circumstances", arbitrarily select the 8th player. If Sharapova ends up at #9 in the race, do you think they'll pick her over either Crapriati or Venus Williams?

I'm thiniking they will, after all she did win a slam this year.

VSFan1 aka Joshua L.
Sep 15th, 2004, 12:22 AM
I don't think JC or Venus would get shafted.....perhaps a lesser known player.

Volcana
Sep 15th, 2004, 01:33 AM
Don't forget that the WTA can, under "exceptional circumstances", arbitrarily select the 8th player. If Sharapova ends up at #9 in the race, do you think they'll pick her over either Crapriati or Venus Williams?Wimbledon does become a very interesting tournament, if it comes down to a choice between Williams and Sharapova.

Seles-Sharapova
Sep 15th, 2004, 01:36 AM
The YEC needs Sharapova more than Sharapova needs YEC, so its really up to them if Maria participates or not, if she finishes outside top 8.

I'm not sure if Venus can make it though.

Infiniti2001
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:44 AM
The YEC needs Sharapova more than Sharapova needs YEC, so its really up to them if Maria participates or not, if she finishes outside top 8.




And what happens if Maria never becomes the hotshot some people think she already is? :rolleyes: :shrug:

LucasArg
Sep 15th, 2004, 05:38 AM
If Venus plays in the fall she is in! Capriati sucks on indoors and Maria is not playing consistently enough to get the points IMO.

GO VENUS!!! :wavey:

MrSerenaWilliams
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:14 AM
I think she'll continue her regular tournament schedule and try to get her ranking up for OZ so her draw isn't SCRWED TO HELL (a la US Open). If she makes it, she makes it, if not, no big deal. I think 2005 is her biggest priority and making up for a mediocre (according to Williams standards) year.

maya
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:19 AM
First of all, I don't think they will change the 8th place (not unless it's someone like Vera Zvonareva, non-american and not fanmous enough) - they won't change Venus, Jennifer or Maria, no mather who qualifies, they are all big enough draws.

Secondly, I believe if Venus really wants to be there (and will thus play enough tournaments - I think at least 3-4) she will get there, even if she doesn't play fantastic in the fall and wins tournaments. She is not playing her best now (and indoors was never her best surface either), but she should still beat most players and progress deep enough into tournaments to get lots of points. I think from now on (no special seeding) she will at least live up to her seeding. I still think special seeding was (and always is) stupid decision, and for Venus too - now she can try to beat higher ranked players and get more bonus points sooner.

chris whiteside
Sep 15th, 2004, 07:02 AM
I'm not sure that Venus has the incentive any longer and on her CURRENT form I also really don't think she would make the top 8.

Of course the WTA is a law onto itself but after the recent bad publicity over the USO Serena/Jennifer quarter and Amelie's rise to #1 surely they wouldn't be crass enough to try and shaft any of those finishing in the top 8, no matter who they were?

Players are already getting at least double points for their performances in Slams so if they have won one but still not managed to make enough points to be among the qualifiers it means that overall their performance can't be that good. At the end of the season let the 8 players with the best points totals go to the YEC. No messing!

Williams Rulez
Sep 15th, 2004, 08:39 AM
she is only 3 pts behind maria, and 155 pts behind jennifer... i think if she plays well enough, wins 1 or 2 tournanments, or reaches 2-3 finals, she's in...

VSFan1 aka Joshua L.
Sep 15th, 2004, 01:53 PM
I'm not sure that Venus has the incentive any longer and on her CURRENT form I also really don't think she would make the top 8.

Of course the WTA is a law onto itself but after the recent bad publicity over the USO Serena/Jennifer quarter and Amelie's rise to #1 surely they wouldn't be crass enough to try and shaft any of those finishing in the top 8, no matter who they were?

Players are already getting at least double points for their performances in Slams so if they have won one but still not managed to make enough points to be among the qualifiers it means that overall their performance can't be that good. At the end of the season let the 8 players with the best points totals go to the YEC. No messing!
Venus has the incentive....trust me.

lizchris
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:05 PM
The YEC needs Sharapova more than Sharapova needs YEC, so its really up to them if Maria participates or not, if she finishes outside top 8.

I'm not sure if Venus can make it though.

The YEC needs good players who are good draws. Of the six people who are up for the last three slots, only Jennifer, Venus and Serena have proven this.

Having said that, Venus must play very well this fall, coupled with Jennifer and Maria not playing well to have a shot at the last spot.

raquel
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:26 PM
My question would be: Is she even interested in playing this fall? I would not be surprised if she doesn't play before Sydney.. By her standards, the year has been wasted and there is not much left to play for.. Would she play full schedule in Europe just for the purpose of qualifying in LA? I am not sure.
I think the incentive for Venus to play Europe could be Europe itself. I don't know where she is committed to but places like Zurich and Moscow are the kind of places I think Venus would like to see again for the city itself and if she picks up some guarantee money as a big drawing card and wins a few matches with no real pressure on, it could all work out well for her. It would probably be more fun than staying at home at least.

boggs570
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:39 PM
The YEC needs Sharapova more than Sharapova needs YEC, so its really up to them if Maria participates or not, if she finishes outside top 8.

I'm not sure if Venus can make it though.

The YEC does not need sharapova if it's held in CA you definitely need the williams sisters that's how they will make the $.

boggs570
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:42 PM
I'm not sure that Venus has the incentive any longer and on her CURRENT form I also really don't think she would make the top 8.

Of course the WTA is a law onto itself but after the recent bad publicity over the USO Serena/Jennifer quarter and Amelie's rise to #1 surely they wouldn't be crass enough to try and shaft any of those finishing in the top 8, no matter who they were?

Players are already getting at least double points for their performances in Slams so if they have won one but still not managed to make enough points to be among the qualifiers it means that overall their performance can't be that good. At the end of the season let the 8 players with the best points totals go to the YEC. No messing!

I totally agree.

boggs570
Sep 15th, 2004, 02:44 PM
I think the incentive for Venus to play Europe could be Europe itself. I don't know where she is committed to but places like Zurich and Moscow are the kind of places I think Venus would like to see again for the city itself and if she picks up some guarantee money as a big drawing card and wins a few matches with no real pressure on, it could all work out well for her. It would probably be more fun than staying at home at least.

Moscow, if I was in Venus' place I sure would not be going there.

*Karen*
Sep 15th, 2004, 04:57 PM
Venus and Maria probably won't make it unless they start reaching atleast the quarters of tournements. Serena won't make it because she won't play enough.

WF4EVER
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:02 PM
Even if venus opted not to chase the Chase (?) I seriously doubt we'll see Venus playing Sydney. She hasn't been there since 99?

Contrary to a statement I read somewhere about Venus coming back too early, I think Venus returned at the right time and didn't do better in OZ because she twisted her ankle in her first match. I saw her match versus Sharapova in HK and she looked just fine to me. Maybe she can play HK again as her preparation for OZ. If she is healthy she should do better in 2005.

TomTennis
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:14 PM
I think venus can qualify. I think that her schedule, two tier ones show that she want s to play at the highest level to get the most points, but doesnt want to play too much to shatter her confidence (if she losses) or risk ANOTHER injury. Had she only played one tier 1 and a tier 2, then it would have looked like she doesnt care, but i can asure you she does.

i think, she may even be a late added entry to advanta champs (if she does well enough at mosow and zurich) to try and qualify for the YEC. Without venus, it wont be very good.

Paneru
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:32 PM
Is it really all that important?

I don't think it much matters one
way or the other as far as I'm concerned.

I just want her to do well in
Moscow and Zurich.

mboyle
Sep 15th, 2004, 06:50 PM
i think right now Vee is still in the top 8 point collectors for this season ;) if she's healthy, I'm sure she'll play
she is no. 10. Two out of Capriati, Williams, Williams, and Sharapova will make the YEC. Vera has a shot, but she is many points behind, despite playing like 20 tournaments already this year.

Capriati has not earned more than a point indoors since what, 2001? Therefore, I think she's going to be stuck with her current 2300 points, more or less. Sharapova is going to play Seoul, which is pretty much an automatic 120 points, and nothing more. She is also playing Tokyo, an also nearly automatic title worth (I believe) 150 points, give or take a little. That is just 270 points, but it already passes Capriati. Maria is also playing Shanghai and one other tournament, but I don't think she will win either, though maybe a combined 200 or 250 points isn't out of the question, depending on which she plays. That means Maria will probably end up with 2650 points or so. Vera would have to win a tier one and do extremely well in her other tournaments to catch Maria, so I think she is out of the picture. Venus might play all of two tournaments, but she would have to get alot better to earn 500/600 points. I don't even know what tournaments Serena is playing. I think Shanghai, but I don't think she'll win there (add like 150 points for a SF,) and she isn't superb indoors, when she plays even. Still, Serena has fewer points needed to gain than Venus, so she will probably be the eighth to qualify, but I doubt either Venus or Serena will decide to play, leaving the true eighth spot open for Vera Zvonareva (who should do well enough to surpass Jennifer.)

ktwtennis
Sep 16th, 2004, 01:38 AM
If Venus plays in the fall she is in! Capriati sucks on indoors and Maria is not playing consistently enough to get the points IMO.

GO VENUS!!! :wavey:Indoors will be grass-like, and Maria should do fairly well...

Rocinante
Sep 16th, 2004, 02:11 AM
The only trouble is Maria isn't commited to any indoor tourneys :)

thelittlestelf
Sep 16th, 2004, 02:34 AM
I'd say her chances are pretty good, she has absolutely nothing to defend from here on out.

starr
Sep 16th, 2004, 04:42 AM
The only trouble is Maria isn't commited to any indoor tourneys :)
I don't know how much more she can play. She is still under playing restrictions.