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View Full Version : 'Race' to top sixteen (16) seeds at Roland Garros


Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:39 AM
I've dropped the Warsaw, Berlin and Rome points, and added the 18ths.
This is what you get.

-- ---- - 426 503 510 519
-- ---- - --- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- -----------------

01 6913 = ... 440 ... ... (--) [01] 7353 HENIN-HARDENNE [GS-RC]
02 5669 = ... 295 402 ... (57) [02] 6280 CLIJSTERS [T1-RC]
03 2996 = ... ... ... ... (--) [04] 2996 DAVENPORT
04 2770 = ... ... .89 ... (31) [05] 2828 MYSKINA

05 2575 = 354 161 367 ... (--) [03] 3457 MAURESMO [T1-RC]
06 2296 = ... .27 .77 ... (02) [06] 2398 PETROVA
07 2192 = ... ... ... ... (02) [09] 2192 DEMENTIEVA
08 2167 = ... ... 170 ... (--) [07] 2337 WILLIAMS, S [GS-RC]

09 1946 = ... 177 .93 ... (--) [08] 2216 CAPRIATI [GS-RC]
10 1904 = ... ... ..1 150 (01) [12] 1904 RUBIN
11 1902 = ... ... 178 ... (27) [10] 2053 SUGIYAMA
12 1728 = 131 157 ... .79 (32) [11] 1984 ZVONAREVA

13 1671 = 183 ... ... ... (--) [13] 1854 WILLIAMS, V [T1-RC]
14 1611 = ... ... ... .48 (01) [15] 1611 SUAREZ
15 1605 = ... ... ... 183 (01) [16] 1605 FARINA ELIA
16 1503 = ... .31 .83 ... (01) [14] 1616 KUZNETSOVA

17 1498 = ... .56 .46 ... (01) [17] 1599 SCHNYDER
18 1299 = ... ... 159 ... (01) [18] 1457 MARTINEZ [T1-RC]
19 1283 = ... ... ... ... (--) [21] 1283 SHARAPOVA
20 1181 = 119 .42 ... ... (27) [19] 1315 DOKIC [T1-RC]

21 1154 = 100 .25 ... ... (01) [22] 1278 SCHIAVONE
22 1132 = .71 .61 .48 ... (16) [20] 1296 SMASHNOVA-PISTOLESI
23 1003 = .99 .90 .56 .24 (01) [23] 1247 ZULUAGA
24 1174 = ... ... .46 ... (01) [24] 1219 Maleeva

NOTE: The slams are NOT WTA tournaments. Roland Garros will and should seed however they like. Please don't bother posting that they should follow the rankings. They usually do, and if they don't, they have defensible reasons, even if we don't agree with them. The seeds will be basically fair. They aren't stupid. Neither are we.

NOTE: RG Seeds are determined BEFORE Madrid and Strasbourg points come off. I provide those as a courtesy, but they are not included in any calculations involving RG seeds.

NOTE: If they suddenly decide to give props to ex-champs, these are the players that might benefit, in rank order.

Williams, S
Capriati
Pierce
Sanchez-Vicario*
Majoli
Seles

NOTE: Monica? Might get a seed, but it won't be top sixteen. My guess is they won't jump an ex-champ ahead of another ex-champ. Especially when the relevant individual is Mary Pierce.

NOTE: [T1-RC] Won a Tier I on red clay

NOTE: [GS-RC] Won a Roland Garros

NOTE: (--) 18th tournament

NOTE: [##] current rank

NOTE: Serena #6 w/ six tournaments

Looks to me like the top five ranking positions are basically set, barring injury. Serena could go on a terrifying run and wrest #5 from Amelie, but the odds on that are slight. At any other slam, they might GIVE Serena that spot, but I can't see them doing anything that hurts Amelie's chances. They might make Serena #5, and Amelie #6, but they won't make Serena #4, and Amelie #5.

Actually, the players who will occupy the top EIGHT ranking posistions are probably set. The order might change. Capriati is battling her back, and she's giving away 200 points. Zvonareva is just too far back to get all the way to #8.

Schnyder is currently holding the transition spot. If anyone doesn't play, she's a top sixteen seed. With a nice 200 point cushion on Martinez and Sharapova. However, as the highest ranking headcase on the tour, I wouldn't bet my own money on holding off Conchi.

If the tournament started tomorrow, Sharapova would probably be a top sixteen seed, given the injury situation. However there are a heapin' helpin' of players who know what they're doing on dirt piled up behind her. If you have an extra shekel to lose, bet Zuluaga to be seed #16. You'll get great odds, and with all the injuries, plus her ability on the surface, it's a good sneaky bet.

faboozadoo15
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:42 AM
monica will probably seeded as if shes the #18 player, making it VERY possible that she could attain a top 16 seed, especially how people are dropping out these days. i don't have my fingers crossed or anything, but if she plays, it's likely.

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:49 AM
Yes, Monica's SSR *should* be 18. (Which, really makes her 19th seed, right?)

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:52 AM
Oh, and Šprem would be ahead of Zuluaga as far as that table shows. She has 1003.25 and loses nothing until after the seeds are done.

KoOlMaNsEaN
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:55 AM
Jelena needs to pick up her game and FAST

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 12:58 AM
Monica will probably seeded as if shes the #18 player, making it VERY possible that she could attain a top 16 seed, especially how people are dropping out these days. i don't have my fingers crossed or anything, but if she plays, it's likely.I gave it a lot of thought, and I have my reasons for doubting that. Monica does have an injury ranking, in the WTA. The ITF is in no way bound to honor that. But Monica is an ex-champ, and if she plays, they'll WANT to give her as high a ranking as is defensible. However, what I DON'T expect them to do is seed her ahead of another ex-champ, OR ahead of a member of their Fed cup team, especially if they win the upcoming tie. Now look at the ranks of those players.

01 HENIN-HARDENNE
03 MAURESMO
07 WILLIAMS, S
08 CAPRIATI
25 DECHY
27 LOIT
35 PIERCE

Seeding Monica ahead of Mary could cost Mary a seed. Not happenin'. Not at RG. I could not know this, obviously, but I'd bet the French hold Mary closer to their hearts than Monica.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:02 AM
Oh, and Šprem would be ahead of Zuluaga as far as that table shows. She has 1003.25 and loses nothing until after the seeds are done.
No doubt. She just was't ranked high enough now for me to worry about. In most years, I wouldn't even consider a player outside the top 20 as a potential top 16 seed at a slam. But this year has been a train wreck.

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:02 AM
3 times winner > 1 time winner, imo.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:04 AM
3 times winner > 1 time winner, imo.
French > not-French

Member of current Fed Cup team > past opponent of Fed Cup team.

They ARE the defending Fed Cup champs, remember.

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:04 AM
No doubt. She just was't ranked high enough now for me to worry about. In most years, I wouldn't even consider a player outside the top 20 as a potential top 16 seed at a slam. But this year has been a train wreck.
Definitely, a couple of moderatly good showings and she could crack 16s

faboozadoo15
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:06 AM
Seeding Monica ahead of Mary could cost Mary a seed. Not happenin'. Not at RG. I could not know this, obviously, but I'd bet the French hold Mary closer to their hearts than Monica.
lol, but i think that's where you're wrong. i mean no offense, but mary is hardly beloved by the french... imo, she plays fed cup to save face. they haven't generally liked her in the past.

and also, the special rankings given to all the money makers have directly translated into seeding even in the slams.

mary is going to have to pull her ranking up to get seeded no matter how u slice it unless players pull out in which case monica could end up top 16 and mary top 32. i'd be shocked if monica plays and isn't seeded, and there's no seed behind mary because she's likely to just make it.

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:06 AM
French vs not-French

Member of current Fed Cup team vs past opponent of Fed Cup team. They ARE the defending champs, remember.
possibly, either way.... Monica has won Slams from many different seeds, so it matters not. :p

:lol:

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:11 AM
lol, but i think that's where you're wrong. i mean no offense, but mary is hardly beloved by the french... imo, she plays fed cup to save face. they haven't generally liked her in the past.We can't know. A bunch of french guys in a smoky room will make those decisions. But if face-saving comes into it, their pride in their Fed Cup champs will trump the past, I'm thinking.

And one rather distasteful note, the war in Iraq may influence this. It should not, I'm sure we all agree. But if Bushie and his friends start mouthing off about the French again in the next month, it will be less popular for the tournament committee to jump an American over three Frenchwomen.

faboozadoo15
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:30 AM
yea, the french, for their flaws, and the americans for their flaws don't necessarily carry that into tennis, person to person sport... it would be one thing if the usa were going to be playing france or something immediately, but i believe even then monica, a tennis legend, 3 time champ, and fan favorite is above all that by all means.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 01:44 AM
yea, the french, for their flaws, and the americans for their flaws don't necessarily carry that into tennis, person to person sport... it would be one thing if the usa were going to be playing france or something immediately, but i believe even then monica, a tennis legend, 3 time champ, and fan favorite is above all that by all means.
Ah but you're a fan. And you're you. The real issue is who the tournament director is a fan of.

As for 'above all that', think if the decision was being made this time last year, when US newspapers headline said things about the French like 'Axis of Weasel' and 'French Are Terrorist Sympathizers'.

Still, we both want you to right about that. I'm just more cynical than you.

faboozadoo15
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:05 AM
perhaps, i hope im right too, of course. i just have a hard time seeing monica being rejected a seed based on her special ranking, that's all.

lol, and who isn't a monica fan? what tournament director wouldn't want her in at least the 4th round?

anyway, i totally get your point, though.

Knizzle
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:10 AM
I think the seeds will be given according to ranking. The only exceptions are those with special seedings where the WTA will ask the French to seed them at their special seedings. I doubt the French is going to deny Monica, Venus and Serena to be seeded at their special seeding.

Jarrett
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:10 AM
They aren't "bound" to the SR but when was the last time this didn't consider it?

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:11 AM
On to other things. If Amelie wins Berlin, makes the SF at Rome,and Kim plays, any chance Amelie #2 and Kim #3?

RG did this with Steffi and Lindsay a few years back.

If Mary P is the #33 player, what's the odds they seed her, and drop #32?

Knizzle
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:16 AM
On to other things. If Amelie wins Berlin, makes the SF at Rome,and Kim plays, any chance Amelie #2 and Kim #3?

RG did this with Steffi and Lindsay a few years back.

If Mary P is the #33 player, what's the odds they seed her, and drop #32?
When is the last time a GS changed the order of seedings without a special seeding?? I thought in 2001 when they changed to 32 seeds, they vowed to use the rankings for seedings.

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:19 AM
They can't adjust the seeds like that. I believe the ITF rule is that anyone in the Top 32 will be seeded Top 32. However, within that 32....anyone can be anywhere.

So, #33 can't be seeded. But #32 can be seeded #1.... if RG seed committee opts to do it.

faboozadoo15
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:31 AM
what if the top 32 players are healthy but there are 1 or 2 ppl with special rankings between 32-1

VRULES
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:34 AM
On to other things. If Amelie wins Berlin, makes the SF at Rome,and Kim plays, any chance Amelie #2 and Kim #3?

RG did this with Steffi and Lindsay a few years back.

If Mary P is the #33 player, what's the odds they seed her, and drop #32?
They won't Give Amelie the #2 seed over Kim. I mean she with everything lost is still 2673 point ahead of the number 3 player Lindsay, and Amelie can't win enough to even be considered. If they were closer they might do that, but slams don't usually mess with the seeds outside of rankings except WImby because grass season is so short!!

AjdeNate!
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:35 AM
what if the top 32 players are healthy but there are 1 or 2 ppl with special rankings between 32-1
Then 32, 31, and 30.....etc... will be bumped down/off the seed list.
So if they give Moniker 18. Then she's really *19* and 32 is off/not seeded. So really with SSR's to Venus, Monica, and Serena (most likely)... players will need to be 29 and up to be seeded.

Jarrett
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:44 AM
Not really. Venus and Serena are already in the top 32, so they aren't bumping anyone off the list. Since Monica is out of the top 32, she will bump someone off.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:45 AM
Then 32, 31, and 30.....etc... will be bumped down/off the seed list.
So if they give Moniker 18. Then she's really *19* and 32 is off/not seeded. So really with SSR's to Venus, Monica, and Serena (most likely)... players will need to be 29 and up to be seeded.
I find this interesting. I really don't think RG will honor any SSR's. I jumped to the ITF website, and came upon an interesting fact. This ITF doesn't own the slams. They work with them, but each slam is an independent entity. Which is to say that the fact that RG is governed by precedent set by OZ.

OTOH, protecting the seeds, and hence the marketability of the tournament, is why we have this benighted 32 seed system in the first place. So if they do alter seeding to protect their investment, where do they stop?

Lindsay was well ahead of Steffi in the rankings when she got seeded #3 and Steffi #2.

I think I would like it better if they seeded the slams by surface.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 02:50 AM
Dokic won Rome a few years back. She's completely one-dimensional, but very good within that dimension. Any chance of a semi out of her this year?

NOTE: Hantuchova is probably not going to be seeded. She's down to #45!!! And she's defending a Berlin QF and a Rome fourth round. She could be out of the top fifty by RG. I am now saying 'eating disorder' out loud.

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 03:24 AM
BTW, any of the Russians have anything for this? After watching Zvonareva lose to Venus, I have no faith she's a threat for the title. Could make a semi, but no more. With clay slowing her serve, Petrova is Dokic, and Dementieva's serve ...

Myskina 'court generalship should serve her til the QFs, but she's no spinmeister.

Kuznetsova on clay? You tell me.

Nothing in Sharpova's game says 'RG champ'. Krasnouroutskaya is a year away from threatening on ANY surface. And Litttle Sister Safina does has the brute strength of Big Brother.

What's coming 'From Russia with Love'?

LucasArg
Apr 21st, 2004, 05:39 AM
I really hope Paola Suarez ears big point in Warsaw, Berlin, Rome and Roland Garros! She has only 48 pts for Quarters in Madrid to defend, so it s now her chance to reach the top ten, cos then she has to defend 4th round in Wimbly, Semis in Toronto, Quarterfinals at US Open and this are big points.

Good luck Paola! :wavey:

Volcana
Apr 21st, 2004, 05:49 AM
I really hope Paola Suarez ears big point in Warsaw, Berlin, Rome and Roland Garros! She has only 48 pts for Quarters in Madrid to defend, so it s now her chance to reach the top ten
I'd like to see that, but she may have waited too late to start her push. Now she's in drag race with Venus and Silvia Farina-Elia. She could play killer tennis and still just miss the top ten.

Daniel
Apr 21st, 2004, 09:30 AM
I really hope Paola Suarez ears big point in Warsaw, Berlin, Rome and Roland Garros! She has only 48 pts for Quarters in Madrid to defend, so it s now her chance to reach the top ten, cos then she has to defend 4th round in Wimbly, Semis in Toronto, Quarterfinals at US Open and this are big points.

Good luck Paola! :wavey:
i agree :wavey: