PAW Rule Changes for 2013 - Page 2 - TennisForum.com
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #16 of 18 (permalink) Old Nov 10th, 2012, 05:11 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: 56°N 102°E
Posts: 3,063
                     
Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by SamR03A View Post
I disagree, I think this will only lead to more picking of favourites. We are aiming for something like betting odds (but without the bookmaker margin), so let me pick some real bookmaker odds close to your matches to illustrate.

Azarenka vs Goerges, Linz - 10595 v 1965, 6-17 instead of 4-23.
Betting average (from tennisexplorer.com): 1.06-9.59 - estimated probability of winning: Azarenka 90 %, Goerges 10 %. Expected points under old system: Azarenka 3.6, Goerges 2.3.

Hercog P v Pavlyuchenkova A, Beijing - 816 v 1430. 12-8 instead of 13-8.
Betting average: 3.57-1.28. Estimated probability: Hercog 27 %, Pavlyuchenkova 73 %. Expected points: Hercog 3.5, Pavlyuchenkova 5.8.

For your Sharapova-Stevenson example, this breaks down because bookmakers can't give odds less than 1 (and I haven't found any matches where the top players played so weak players), but Azarenka-Brianti at Roland Garros had odds of 1.01-50 on [censored site, but it is a betting exchange rather than a bookmaker], indicating 98 %-2 % probability, and the old system gave 3-37 (and the new system would give 4-23).

It is tempting to go for the big points, but in the long run it will not work.
I completely agree and with your calculations, and with a conclusion: "...this will only lead to more picking of favourites".
But I wished to make so. To increase quantity of picks by favorites.
purtov is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #17 of 18 (permalink) Old Nov 10th, 2012, 06:35 AM
Senior Member
 
Chiquitita.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bonn, NRW
Posts: 24,398
                     
Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by purtov View Post
I completely agree and with your calculations, and with a conclusion: "...this will only lead to more picking of favourites".
But I wished to make so. To increase quantity of picks by favorites.


I disagree because I would like the expected points to be about even on both players in a match, but that is opinion, not mathematics

kijk es goed
ze heeft toch iets
Halep Muguruza SuárezNavarro Азаранка Кузнецо́ва Павлюче́нкова vanUytvanck Beck Barthel Larsson Watson Mitu
Bertens Siniaková Țig Hogenkamp deVroome King Pfizenmaier Andrianjafitrimo Eikeri Stokke Arvidsson | twitter
Chiquitita. is online now  
post #18 of 18 (permalink) Old Jan 5th, 2013, 10:06 PM Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
sdtoot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,988
                     
Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

From the start of the 2013 season, the PAW Board have decided to introduce the following Tie-Break Rules for the case where several players have the same number of points in the final league table:-

Tie-Break

In case several players have the same number of points, the following rules will be used to determine their ranking:-

1. The greater number of won picks.
If there is still a tie then:
2. The greater points of a single pick.
If there is still a tie then the greater second-best pick, and so on.
Note - A No pick will be considered better than 0 pts.
3. If there is still a tie then players will stay tied.
sdtoot is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the TennisForum.com forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Image Verification
Please enter the six letters or digits that appear in the image opposite.

Registration Image

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome