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Hard Courts American Style: Sam's happy hunting ground

84K views 3K replies 39 participants last post by  annetcl 
#1 ·
Last time a thread was created for the US hard court season great things happened, so I figured it was a good time to start a fresh thread again. I have a good feeling about this season:)

Things are already looking up: Sharapova has pulled out of Stanford (sorry Huntress, but it's apparently nothing serious, otherwise I would try to appear not quite so happy;)). The field looks pretty weak, and barring at least 2 higher ranked WCs Sam should have a top 4 seeding. A great opportunity to get things off to a good start.:bounce:

Go Sammy!:cheer:
 
#3 ·
At this point the seeding in Stanford will be as follows:

1. Agnieszka Radwanska
2. Marion Bartoli
3. Samantha Stosur
4. Dominika Cibulkova
5. Jamie Hampton
6. Sorana Cirstea
7. Varvara Lepchenko
8. Urszula Radwanska

Unseeded players:

Hantuchova
McHale
Paszek
Goerges
Wickmayer
Schiavone
Rybarikova
Niculescu
Morita
Voegele
Keys
Bertens

As top 4 seed, Sam will get a R1 bye. Not always a good thing, but she'd be unlucky to draw a R2 opponent who she can't handle. And I'm assuming she's had her portion of bad luck for this year. Once she gets a match under her belt I would give her a very good chance against anyone in the draw. Aga and Marion would obviously be tough, but she doesn't have to worry about them before the SF.
 
#4 ·
Let's all now watch as:
a) Sam draws Goerges in R2
b) After months of headcasery and bad results, Julia mysteriously returns to GOAT form, which ...
c) mysteriously disappears the next day, when she loses to Morita

:hearts:
 
#7 ·
I'll be optimistic and say that Sam could just draw Schiavone in the 2nd round...FO2010 final Schiavone, of course :yeah:

(The more pessimistic we are here, the likelier it is that it's going to be a good draw, right? That's how reverse jinxes work, right? Right?!)
 
#8 ·
Yes that is how reverse jinxes work; except the bracketed section of your post will have alerted the tennis deities of our wicked plan, thereby counter-jinxing our reverse jinx :sad:
 
#10 ·
You know with all this reverse jinx/super jinx reversal (I have no idea how to word it really) we will be laughing/crying when some GOAT playing scrub outside the top 100 knocks her off with Sam having a positive W/UE. I don't know what I will do if that happens
 
#11 ·
This has been such a miserable year for Sam that we've hardly noticed that she has more or less stopped getting beaten by such lower ranked players. If you discount her retirement against Bouchard in Charleston, Sam's worst losses of the year rankingswise were the three in Australia, against players ranked 41, 42 and 40. Since then she hasn't lost to anyone outside the top 30. At the same stage last year she had chalked up losses against players ranked 54, 59, 105, 63, 262 and 72.
 
#14 ·
Sorry guys, I just can't do this whole reverse jinx thing, just don' t have the discipline for it. Tbh, I'm not even 100% sure it even works. I am at least prepared to accept the possibility that there may be other factors affecting Sam's results other than our neurotic ramblings:lol:
 
#16 ·
^Ah, the good old overly confident double-triple bluff with a backflip jinx. Good thinking! :):p
 
#18 ·
Well, if there are they probably have a good idea about what the relationship between what I said and Maxwell Smart is, because I have no idea :p

More of an Austin Powers kind of guy to be honest.
 
#20 ·
You must have an intuitive affinity:



Although it's not shown in this compilation, his other big catchphrase was "Good thinking 99". He often combined the two, as in "Ah, the old horseshoe in the teeth trick. Good thinking 99". I thought that was your inspiration.:)
 
#21 ·
Well it's nice to know that almost everything that I say is derivative of some TV show somewhere :p

So many others have used that joke that I didn't even realise it had a definite cultural point of origin. I thought it was more a generic knock-knock kind of joke :lol:
 
#22 ·
It's always a comfort to know that one's life and values are built on a solid basis of TV sitcoms.

So many young people these days taking refuge in fleeting things like literature, arts and sciences, but at the end of the day it's the simple things that really matter.
 
#23 · (Edited)
Marion too busy celebrating her Wimbledon win to make it to Stanford. Draw just keeps getting better and better for Samantha.

I'm not going to have the time/internet access to post too much or follow Sam's matches over the next week or so, so I will be relying on all of you to provide match commentary. Don't let me down! :)
 
#25 ·
Hey guys! :wavey: I really hope so Sam has a good run/draw in Stanford. I feel like she needs a good start here in the US after her relatively decent play in the grass court season. At the moment I don't really care if she plays fantastic, I just want her to get some wins under her belt :sobbing:
 
#26 ·
Hey Winlaw, good to see you:wavey:

I completely agree that she needs a good start in America. She finally has had a bit of luck with the field thinning out in Stanford (although she could still get unlucky and meet an on-fire Goerges or Keys in R2), so it's really important that she takes advantage by having a deep run. Anything less than a SF would be very disappointing, the more so since the time is running out for her if she wants to secure a top 12 seeding at the USO.

The thing is, with so many players bunched up close together in the rankings, results in one tournament can have serious knock-on effects in later tournaments. With a good result at Stanford she can secure a top-12 seeding in both Toronto and Cincy, which means she gets to avoid Serena, Masha and Aga until the QF at the earliest in Toronto, and the same three plus Vika in Cincy. She has done well in those places in the past, so with a good draw she could go quite deep, in which case she could well get back into the top 10 before the USO.

But if she bombs out early in Stanford and again in Toronto, it will become increasingly difficult for her to accumulate serious points, because she will keep running into the big guns in the round of 16
 
#29 ·
Actually, this may not be as bad as it looks. We have been a bit traumatized by Sam's losses to Julia and Sori, but they're both in pretty ordinary form, especially Julia, who would be the bigger threat if she played well I think. There is of course the fact that players in crap form always suddenly turn GOAT for 1 match against Sam, but as long as she keeps her head cool I fancy her chances to get past them both.

Still, it is weird that she draws 2 of the 3 players I explicitly named as potential early dangers. The jinx theory is starting to look plausible. Either that or the draws are rigged.
 
#28 ·
Its alright. Sam needs all the help she can get :p

Not that her draw is exactly the best she could have ended up with but I think she should do ok here. But if Sam can play relatively well and get through Julia and Sori, well I can see her making the final but who knows what will happen. Just a few wins would be nice Sam.
 
#30 ·
Getting in early for Toronto: Sam should be fine there as long as she doesn't draw Davis, Watson, Larsson or Soler Espinosa in the early rounds, and as long as she's in Serena's or Masha's quarter:angel:
 
#31 ·
:lol: love it!

I am shocked how unlucky she has had it with draws all year. On paper and form Sam should easily beat Goerges and Cirstea but knowing the history you just know it wont be that simple. Either way I can't wait for her to play again. :bounce:
 
#32 ·
:facepalm: NID

Maybe she'll get a Bartoliesque USO draw to compensate for it all...
 
#38 ·
Can you edit the "maybe" out of this one? That should do the trick;)

The uncanny thing about Sam's shitty draws since her injury is how perfectly tailored they seem to be to her personally. I mean, for most of the top 20, Jools in current form would probably constitute a pretty good draw. But against Sam she can't fail to get a surge of confidence, and if Sam allows herself to get tentative she could be in trouble.

On clay Sam drew clay goats CSN and JJ (2X), but as soon as they moved onto grass she copped Lucie and Sabs firing bombs at her.:mad: It's hardly an exaggeration to say that her best recent draw was Rome, because at least Petra and Vika both suck on slow clay.

How might her last 2 slams have gone if her R3 opponents had been switched. I'm pretty sure she could have taken Bine out on clay, and I think she'd have fancied her chances against JJ on grass as well.:shrug:
 
#35 ·
Julia is tough opponent for the first match on hard but she can lose to Govortsova and Sorana can lose to Morita or Niculescu :)

I think Goerges will be the biggest test, if Sam gets through her means she's in fine form and Cirstea won't be a big problem.

The remained players are more easy for Sam to deal with... Dani, Domi, Ula, prob Aga in the final!
 
#39 ·
#41 ·
They've already announced that Sam will play the feature match on Tuesday, at 7pm local time. Crappy time for me, 4am, but will I be able to sleep through it and wait to find out the score when I wake up? No frikkin way:sobbing:

Better time for you guys, work commitments notwithstanding: about lunchtime if I've done my sums right.
 
#44 ·
Yeah, it sucks for me too due to my crappy work schedule this week. Plus, I don't like when Sam plays evening matches for some reason. No jinx intended, but there's magical powers in those Oaks and just something about beautiful sunshine that really accentuates the guns. Oh well.... ;)

Hope you guys will be able to find a good stream and I will be anxiously awaiting some fantastic commentary when I get home from work. Go Sam! :yeah:
 
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