Ranking Preview - Doha
Last year, she played the Dubai event where she gained 4 points after losing in the second round of the quallies. These points are less than her 17th-best event over the past 52 weeks which is S'Hertogenbosch. There, she got 16 points for a round of 16 result at a Tier III $170K event. Therefore, she can only gain points at Doha.
A win over #200 Ting Li will get her 25 points, replacing the 16 from S'Hertogenbosch.
A win over either #53 Zheng or #15 Kuznetsova will give her 49 points.
If she makes it to the quarterfinals, her point total will (should) be 821.75.
#20 Pennetta and #22 Groenefeld are the top two seeds at a Tier III in Mexico City. Should they do decently there, they should stay ahead of Maria. Although Pennetta won this event last year, those point were already removed since it was played a week prior to last year. This is why Pennetta went down from #18 to #20. Neither Pennetta nor Groenefeld have any points to defend going into Acapulco.
However, #21 Jankovic played in Dubai last year and made the finals. (NOTE: Doha and Dubai switched dates this year, so although Dubai has already been played this year, the points from last year's Dubai tournament still count now). She has 137 points to defend from that tournament. Even if she makes the semis at Doha, she'll lose points and just enough to fall behind Maria K.
Therefore, Maria should move up to #22 barring anything bizarre happenning, like someone beneath her doing really well this week. But Maria has some sizable distance between her and anyone ranked out of the Top 25, so there's no reason for concern here.
QUESTION: Am I spending too much time thinking about this?
Fan since Roland Garros '04