Originally Posted by TheSeth1119
The odds of Jennifer Capriati winning the FO are the same odds of Martina Hingis and Monica Seles playing at the FO in 2004!
This statment is mathmatically impossible. The odds of Martina and Monica playing are ZERO. Any player in the draw has at least a teeny tiny chance to win. Even Martina N. has a least a 1 in a hundred trillion chance to win. And one in one hundred trillion is still a greater chance than 0.
Also, let's look at the contenders..
1. Justine- should be the fave, but has missed a lot of time
2. Amelie-Has had great results in warmup events but hasn't won a major yet and feels a lot of pressure playing in her home Grand Slam
3. Serena-won two years ago but was just beaten by Jen. So I guess she can't win, right?
4. Venus. Hasn't won a major in a couple years. Hasn't won more than a title or two in a year since 2002. Hasn't beaten Serena since 2001. Started the year off poorly, but is having a great claycourt season. Sound familliar? In fact, Jen's had similar statistics over the past couple years. Since their results are so similar than Venus doesn't have a shot either, right?
5. Linsday. Has never won this tournament and skipped Berlin and Rome. She should contend for the title though.
6. Anastasia-Has never done well at RG, nor has she ever won a major. Was creamed by Jen in Berlin and lost early at Rome, so she can NOT be a contender, right?
7. Nadia Petrova. Beat Jen here in the 4th round last year. She is hot and cold though so it's hard to predict. She will have a lot of pressure to defend her SF points from last year.
8. Elena D- The last time she made a slam semi was 2000
9. Svetlana K-has been hot this year but is still unproven in majors
10. Vera Z-quarterfinalist last year and potential darkhorse
11. Ai? She's older than Jen. She's won fewer titles than Jen.
12. Chanda-she's been out for a while, has never won a major and is older than Jen
And now Jen:
A former champ of Roland Garros and has made the semis on two other occasions. Has a new coach and has gotten over an injury. Slow start to the season but great performances in Berlin and Rome. Has won a major more recently than Venus or Linsday.
Jen will be seeded between 5 and 7. That means that she should be favored to do better than 120-122 players (nobody can be favored to do better than 128 players). This would mean that by your theory, 120-122 players would have a LESSER chance of winning RG than Martina H and Monica would have of playing RG!
It would be one thing if Jen had a crappy record on clay. But she doesn't. If you said Andy Roddick doesn't have much of a chance, than I might agree. Since there are more surface specialists in the mens game, you can't always apply math to figure out the favorites.
Also, the odds really don't mean squat. Anyone who plays has a chance to win. The top players could all do really well, or some or all of them could lose early. The odds are that the top players will at least make the 4th round, but that doesn't mean they will. If someone had said that Jennifer Capriati would win the 2001 Australian Open the day before the tournament, someone would have said, "Yeah right. She has about the same chances of winning the tournament as Chris Evert and Steffi Graf have of playing it" (again mathematically impossible).
And Jen wound up winning that event if I remember correctly.