It's not about struggling in the early rounds, she easily loses her serve in any round and to anyone (no way that could be an advantage when the match is close). Can she win it ? Sure she can. But i wouldn't give her more than 10% at this state.
Haven't followed this topic for some time, so don't know if you mentioned her interview where she said she only uses second serve and she's unable to serve with power 'cause of that arm/elbow problems. And that's the reason she gets broken so much, but it also says how dominant she is when she can easily win matches even without first serve.