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post #1616 of (permalink) Old May 23rd, 2013, 12:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Clay Court 2013: Sam on the Road to Roland Garros

Just been doing a few quick sums to see what Sam stands to gain or lose at RG in terms of rankings. It's a pretty sobering picture. Her lack of good clay results has robbed her of a big part of her buffer, so she really needs a strong run to avoid getting hit pretty hard.

If, heaven forbid, she were to lose in R1 she would drop straight down to at least #13. The silver lining is that even in that case she'd be desperately unlucky to go any lower than #15, because the current #16 and #17 were defeated by our Sammy in respectively the QF and R4 last year, and so would need to go at least one better than that to have any chance of edging Sam.

If Sam can win at least two or three matches she should end up around #12. If she can reach the QF she would stay in the top 10 unless at least one of the players in the 11-15 range also reaches the QF. Aside from Vinci and maybe Ivanovic, I can't see any of those players doing that, and in any case Ivanovic would need to reach the SF to outrank Sam in that case.

If she can reach the SF she will still need Caro to lose in R1 to avoid dropping back to #10 (this is why I'm developing a grudge against Caro). But if she does get that far it would take an extraordinary run from one of the lower ranked players to push her out of the top 10.

To have any chance of improving her ranking she'd have to win the title. She could go as high as #7 in that case, but that would require Errani and Kvitova to lose before the QF, and Kerber to lose before R3.
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