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post #2463 of (permalink) Old Oct 10th, 2012, 09:39 AM
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Re: Donna Vekic

Quote:
Originally Posted by ma re View Post
Nothing is inherently wrong with playing qualies, but being ready and focused for a whole of 3 quali rounds might be a challenge for someone of Donna's age and experience level, which we witnessed in NY. And since she showed in Tashkent that she has what it takes to beat a top 100 player, it migth be a safer route to serious points. Besides, by the time AO starts, 40 or even 65 points won't matter too much for her ranking. If she bombs out in R1 it's not the end of the world, she doesn't lose a lot of points by not going through qualies and gets a new tennis experience of sorts. Especially if she bombs out to a big name
I guess that's true but think about it this way:
The chances of Donna winning R1 is about 1/3 or 2/5 right. The chance of her winning R1 in Qualifying is About 3/4 or 4/5. She will be very highly seeded and it would give her a great chance to qualify. She should be better by the time she plays in Australia then in the US Open, and she go quite a difficult draw there. Even though it would sound stupid in the short run, I think that playing 25Ks to guarantee you make MD of a Grand Slam when Qualifying would be more beneficial to her development, is not the best move for a 16 year old But your points are the most valid I have seen

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