Just to summarise, the cutoff for the Australian Open maindraw is based on the WTA rankings of this Monday, 3rd December. Donna needs to be #108 or higher to officially get direct acceptance into the Australian Open maindraw. She's provisionally #106. The only players who can overtake her are those playing $75K Dubai this week. The ones who could potentially overtake her are Kristyna Pliskova, Elina Svitolina, Karolina Pliskova, Kimiko Date-Krumm and Yulia Putintseva.
It seems that Dulgheru is the only player able to use a SR, so really Donna needs to be at least #107 and only one of those five players can overtake her
in order for her to make it in.
Here are the rounds that those five players need to reach to overtake Donna.
Kr.Pliskova: second round
Svitolina and the Ka.Pliskova have already won their first rounds, the other three are yet to play.
The way the draw is done makes things a bit more complicated. For example, it's impossible for Putintseva to be in the final if Svitolina is in the semifinal (as they're in the same quarter and they could potential play in the quarterfinals). It's the exact same situation for Ka.Pliskova and Date-Krumm. Kr.Pliskova is in a different quarter to the others, and only needs a second round to overtake Donna anyway. So basically a maximum of three of these players can overtake Donna. So at worst Donna will be #109 and if Dulgheru chooses to use her SR she'll need to rely on two withdrawals to get direct entry into the maindraw, probably Kanepi (who is apparently extremely unlikely to play) and one other.
If she just misses out she's going to be relying on people withdrawing, but I want Donna to get in on her own accord to be 100% sure.
I don't know about you guys but I'm going to be watching these results very closely
Hope I didn't confuse you all but I think I have it right
All in all she'd need the worst possible outcome for Dubai to happen, plus Dulgheru to use her SR, plus less than two people ranked above her to withdraw for her not
to make it in
It's fairly certain she'll just scrape in though.