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Wimbledon 2012

3K views 21 replies 6 participants last post by  WIMBY 
#1 ·
Last year three British women made it through to the second round of the ladies singles, do you see this happening again this year?

The cut off for direct entry is 14th May so Baltacha and Keothavong both have direct entry. Watson is currently at 113 so it depends on how she preforms in Estoril and Cagnes-sur-Mer on her climbing back above 108 by the 14th. Laura Robson & Naomi Broady on wildcards.

I don't Webley-Smith getting a wc as her ranking has dropped this year so like Melanie South and Tara Moore she will need to go through qualifying.
 
#3 ·
I think we'll have at least one make a 2nd round appearance this year. I'd love to see Sam murray get a WC but more than likely they would give her one for the q-draw.
 
#4 · (Edited)
My guesses are: (providing Heather makes the cut-off)

1) Robson- for obvious reasons
2) Broady- again, for obvious reasons, although she's had an awful start to the year
3/4) Murray/Moore/Windley/Stephenson- with the exception of Tara, whose been injured and seems to be sweeping british tour events (i take it she's playing them because the LTA aren't funding her), all of them have had some good results this year.
4or5) Dean- she's had some good results last year, but the LTA award a WC to a good junior, yes?

I hope they award 5 to british players, but I can only see 4 being awarded this year.
 
#5 ·
to be honest I think only Robson and Broady will get the female wc for the UK this year as the rest are all outside the top 300..

Watson looks like she is playing well again and will probarly be safe with a direct acceptance she climbs above 108 by next week.
 
#6 ·
Hmm. Yeah. No-one even close to the cut-off.

Watson (should she just miss the cut), Robson and Broady are obvious.

And very few of the lower-ranked girls are on an upwards trajectory. Fran Stephnson and Sam Murray are the two whose ranking has improved since YE2011, though most of that improvement came over winter, not recently. Fran also has age on her side - she's still only 18. Sam is older but only came back onto the circuit after college, so has actually shown decent improvement over the last two seasons.

But it's hard to imagine that they have much of a chance for a MD win, even with the most favourable draw imaginable. Even a QR1-win would be an achievement.

I think the 250 guideline is about right, though I think it could be somewhat fluid in the case of a player coming back from injury, being very young or showing massive recent improvement.
 
#9 ·
I suspect they'd stretch to 270ish, if it was a young up-and-comer, rather than someone bimbling around that sort of ranking for most of their career.

One reason I think 250 is about right (with some leeway for teenagers and special cases) is that basically it would cover anyone who would have had to go through qualifying, or who had hopes to make the cut for qualifying. So it works as a kind of upgrade from Q-draw to main draw.

Most players ranked below that will have very little chance to win a main draw round, even with home advantage, and the most favourable draw imaginable.

It's a round number, but that doesn't automatically make it wrong.
 
#16 ·
It's a round number, but that doesn't automatically make it wrong.
Obviously, round numbers must be right sometimes. If a number divisible by 50 is always chosen, there is approximately a one in fifty chance that the best possible cut off ranking has been chosen. If more thought went into choosing the cut off ranking, it would be less likely that a number divisible by 50 would be chosen.

I still think that 250 is too low but that 300 would be too high.
 
#14 ·
Now at 281, so hope she keeps climbing :)
 
#11 ·
She was, but she was only just 20, had started the year ranked 399, and ended it ranked 167, so she was young and showing promise and making progress up the rankings.

Mel's had 4 QWCs and won one qualifying match, and 5 MDWCs, and won one MD match. It's quite a lot of WCs really, and now she's 26, and probably past the mid-point of her career.

But still, she's the only British lady QWC to win a round last year, and the nearest to the criteria they've set, so I can imagine them stretching a point if she's close.
 
#15 ·
Mel and Em won today, would be great to see them back up in the ranks at Wimby :):)
 
#17 ·
I don't think it's possible to come up with some magic 'best possible' number. But 250 seems a reasonable choice.

However, I think that individual circumstances should come into play.

I'd always rather have a young player currently on form, climbing the rankings, managing to beat a few players ranked above herself, than the opposite, even if the player on a downward spiral was ranked 50 places above the one on the rise.
 
#20 ·
I posted the OOP for today for the Q wildcard playoffs in the Wimbledon forum!
 
#22 ·
Looks like Heather will get in Main Draw and not need her wildcard .....
 
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