IMO Sam is very beatable on HC in this match-up since Slava's game can bother her A LOT. Sam's top spin and kick serve won't be effective against a player like Slava because our champ is tall, has a great return of serve and powerful flat groundstrokes. If anything, Slava doesn't like a player who plays low balls, she deals with top spin much much better. High boucing balls is always good for Slava. Her FH becomes better when the bounce of the ball is high. She can easily puinish any high ball with her FH or BH.
No wonder Slava won the only meeting between them and that happened in 2009 when Slava was out of the top 100 I believe.
She is a much better player now.
Errani is a good example of a player who plays with top spin but we all know what would happen if she meets a good Slava on ANY surface. It's simply a bad match up for Errani.
Sam is better than Errani for sure and has a great serve and FH but her ROS is still poor which means Slava can still win her serves game even if her serve is inconsistent. Also Slava is a much better mover than Sam, so Slava should have the upper hand in the long rallys. And we shouldn't forget that Slava can expose Sam's BH wing with ease because our champ has a world class backhand.
However, mentally Sam is way stronger than Slava. That's the only thing we all Slava fans worry about, her mental state. Maybe that's the only thing that makes this match-up harder than it actually is for Slava.
All in all, Slava potentially
is a bad match up for Sam. That's what I believe in. I think it's 55-45 in favour of Slava at the moment but if Slava was just decent mentally then it would be more like 65-35 in her favour.
This is just my opinion about this match-up.