Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 12:36 AM Thread Starter
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Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

Tory victory at next general election 'likely'
By Stephen Fisher
Last Updated: 11:43PM BST 02/05/2008
Labour did so badly and the Conservatives so well in the local elections that comparable historical benchmarks are practically exhausted.
David Cameron and Boris Johnson
PA
The Conservatives have dealt Labour a heavy blow

With only 24 per cent in the BBC projected national share of the vote, Labour suffered their lowest share since this kind of exercise in the early 1980s.

Not only has Gordon Brown done worse than Michael Foot, but you need to go back to the late 1960s to find a result that looks worse for Labour.

The Conservative share, at 44 per cent, is its greatest for the last quarter century, excepting 1992, when the conjunction of the local and general elections gave the Tory local share a substantial boost.
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So do these results herald a Conservative victory at the next election?

Comparison with the 1990s suggests yes.

The Labour share this year is marginally lower than the worst result the Conservatives ever suffered under John Major.

In terms of the relative standing of the two major parties, this year looks like the reverse of 1995, when the then new Labour leader, Tony Blair, achieved a projected national share of the vote of 46 per cent and the Tories a dismal 25 per cent.

That result was followed by a similar one in the 1996 local elections and a Labour landslide in the general election.

But the link between local and general election performance is far from straightforward.

After all, Labour’s 2004 local election share of 26 was, as this year, comfortably its worst since records began, and yet they went on win the 2005 election with a comfortable majority.

The key difference between then and now is that the Tories then were much weaker, with only 38 per cent of the 2004 local vote share, whereas now they are much stronger in both local election performance and the opinion polls.

Moreover, unlike in some recent local elections, the Conservative’s advances were not confined to their heartlands.

Labour were fortunate indeed to win a general election on 36 per cent of the vote, and it is unlikely to happen again in face of rejuvenated Tory party.

The Liberal Democrats consistently do about 10 percentage points better in their local election share compared with their general election or poll performance, but they tend to rise and fall together.

This year marks a continued steady decline since their local election share of the vote since the record high of 29 per cent in both 2003 and 2004. This dropped to 27 per cent in 2006, 26 per cent in 2007, and 25 per cent this year.

This is not the only sign that electoral consequences of the Iraq war might be fading. Wards with high proportions of Muslims, which swung heavily away from the government in 2003 and 2004, seem to be returning to Labour.

If, alternatively, the decline in the Liberal Democrat’s share of the vote is due to the quality of its leaders, by doing worse than Ming Campbell, this year’s result is not good for Nick Clegg.

His saving grace is that, by offsetting loses to the Tories with gains from Labour, his party experienced little net change in the number of their councils or councillors.

Stephen Fisher is a lecturer in political sociology at the University of Oxford

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Finally, it looks like a return to goverment with some sense.

"All my life I've had to fight. It's just another fight I'm going to have to learn how to win, that's all. I'm just going to have to keep smiling."
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post #2 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 12:41 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

Labour? Socialism?

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years

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post #3 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 12:45 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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Labour? Socialism?

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years
How skewed your political compass must be

I bet you don't consider Stalin left wing either

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post #4 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 12:50 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.

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(1)A lot is being made of the record Serena has vs Sharapova. It is being used as THE reason she will win again lol. Good thing we have players like Tomas Berdych (who had an even worse record vs Nadal) to remind us of the fallacy of this nonsense logic.
(2)You stans may as well sleep well tonight because tomorrow the a replay of Lucie's winning moment over and over again will haunt your dreams for weeks to come
(3)The stars have aligned perfectly for the upset of the 21st century. All the best Garbine
(4) There is no path to victory for Williams.Keys wins in straight easy sets.
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post #5 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 12:56 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

The thought of that posh right-wing moron Cameron running this country makes me want to move to the USA more than ever. Especially if Obama becomes President.

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post #6 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:01 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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How skewed your political compass must be

I bet you don't consider Stalin left wing either
People who call this Labour administration's government of the UK since 1997 "socialist" clearly don't understand the term at all. You should know what these long, fancy words actually mean before using them

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post #7 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:10 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

Oh please, just because Tony Blair injected a little common sense into Labours old loony policies doesn't mean that they are no more socialists. Just look at Ken Livingstone's economy destroying measures in London or that ridiculous 10p tax. They're still as red as ever under Gordon Brown.

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post #8 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:13 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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Originally Posted by Serena~lover View Post
Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.
Really? How is it that all those horrible conservatives were smart enough to get into Oxford and you weren't?

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post #9 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:18 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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Originally Posted by Chris 84 View Post
Labour? Socialism?

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years
Labour is left wing

Just because Blair took steps to move it toward the center does not noe mean it's right wing. Though I agree socialist is too far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Serena~lover View Post
Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.
You don't make to many policies in opposition. Only at general election time, else they can be copied (inheritance tax).

The lead would be even greater if Scottland and Wales acheieve independance. But lot can happen between now and the general election. 'don't count your eggs until their in the basket'.

Still it is good to see an increased turnout



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post #10 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:33 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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Originally Posted by DaMamaJama87 View Post
Really? How is it that all those horrible conservatives were smart enough to get into Oxford and you weren't?
I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them

I absolutely hate the academic snobbery though, I'm in St.Anne's which is one of the more modern and larger colleges. Nice comeback btw

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alla Luce View Post
(1)A lot is being made of the record Serena has vs Sharapova. It is being used as THE reason she will win again lol. Good thing we have players like Tomas Berdych (who had an even worse record vs Nadal) to remind us of the fallacy of this nonsense logic.
(2)You stans may as well sleep well tonight because tomorrow the a replay of Lucie's winning moment over and over again will haunt your dreams for weeks to come
(3)The stars have aligned perfectly for the upset of the 21st century. All the best Garbine
(4) There is no path to victory for Williams.Keys wins in straight easy sets.
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post #11 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 01:37 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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You don't make to many policies in opposition. Only at general election time, else they can be copied (inheritance tax).

The lead would be even greater if Scottland and Wales acheieve independance. But lot can happen between now and the general election. 'don't count your eggs until their in the basket'.

Still it is good to see an increased turnout

True, you don't make too many policies, however that doesn't really lessen my point that the conservatives are more style than substance. It's true they are there to act as a check on the government, but they are also obliged to pose as a viable alternative government, which I don't think they are doing yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alla Luce View Post
(1)A lot is being made of the record Serena has vs Sharapova. It is being used as THE reason she will win again lol. Good thing we have players like Tomas Berdych (who had an even worse record vs Nadal) to remind us of the fallacy of this nonsense logic.
(2)You stans may as well sleep well tonight because tomorrow the a replay of Lucie's winning moment over and over again will haunt your dreams for weeks to come
(3)The stars have aligned perfectly for the upset of the 21st century. All the best Garbine
(4) There is no path to victory for Williams.Keys wins in straight easy sets.
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post #12 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 06:29 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

I remember a debate rfew years ago between some Labour guy and some Tory guy. Wnen Labour said that GB must reduce spending, cos itts the only way to cut taxes, Tory said that this is not possible, than government is to help people, etc.- no comments. Today Tory are more on the left than Labour, so it basicly dont matter who will win election.

Quote:
I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist".
How can You call Blair, one of godfathers of Treaty Of Lisbon, a "right centre" ?

.
Quote:
For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years
tragedy...

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post #13 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 06:56 AM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

Don't you just love all those theories every time a party loses an election. The same reasons people use to stop voting labour, people here use to stop voting right wing.

At the end of the day, it's normal that votes swing away from the ruling party. The ruling party is punished in elections, other party gets big victory, enough to last another election, then they're punished and the other party wins big. In about 8 years time, the tories will lose again. That's politics.

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post #14 of 23 (permalink) Old May 5th, 2008, 10:26 PM
 
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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Originally Posted by Serena~lover View Post
I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them


It never ceases to amaze me how people that aren't in the UK seem to be such experts on how much better for us the conservatives are going to be.

Conservatives probably are going to win the next election at this rate.

Still, I suppose they might steal a bit of the BNP vote so it's not all bad news.
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post #15 of 23 (permalink) Old May 7th, 2008, 12:47 PM
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Re: Brits finally ready to shrug off the shackles of Labour socialism

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It never ceases to amaze me how people that aren't in the UK seem to be such experts on how much better for us the conservatives are going to be.

Conservatives probably are going to win the next election at this rate.

Still, I suppose they might steal a bit of the BNP vote so it's not all bad news.
Quite! Frankly, there's nothing socialist at all about labour these days. Being a child of the dreaded Thatcher year's, I've voted labour all my life. But never again. Not after Iraq and the abolition of the 10p tax rate. How anyone can argue that labour are the party for the common people of this country after abolishing the 10p tax rate is beyond me. If labour needed to raise more revenue from tax, why didn't they lower the threshold for the 40% tax rate? Only people who earn well over £30,000 a year will feel that. In my view, that's what a party truly driven by socialism would have done.
And yes, it would be nice if some people didn't claim to be experts on our politicial system based on their knowledge from a few academic articles ............... especially some of our cousins from over the pond who have a completely hysterical and irrational fear of "socialism" .......

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