The 2008 Electoral College - TennisForum.com

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 03:53 AM Thread Starter
it's just me against the music.
 
In The Zone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 26,495
                     
The 2008 Electoral College

Okay, let's break this down. Who really is more electable?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Presidential_Election

Those are the states Kerry won. None of those states will turn from blue.

What can Hillary win EASILY? What can Obama win easily?

That are not included in that list.

Hillary
Locks:
Ohio
Arkansas

Likely:
Florida

Obama
Locks:
None.

Likely:
Iowa
Missouri


I really don't know what states he plans on winning to get to 270. Kerry got to 251. In fact, with Obama, New Jersey and Pennsylvania become vulnerable. Will he lose them? No but it just alludes to other states.

Missouri (which Hillary is equally as likely ) and Iowa would bring Obama to guess what number? 269.

Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada seem to be the only argument. Will he win those? No, he'll make them close. But as Brandy would say, almost doesn't count. Arizona? No way, not vs. McCain. New Mexico? Just as likely for Hillary as for Obama but neither will win.

Please enlighten me so I can vote for Obama if he is the nominee without worry.
In The Zone is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:00 AM Thread Starter
it's just me against the music.
 
In The Zone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 26,495
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Oh and I posted this thread so everyone can post in a neutral thread.
In The Zone is offline  
post #3 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:07 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: florida
Posts: 24,592
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College



+



=



-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public!
Pureracket is offline  
post #4 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:12 AM Thread Starter
it's just me against the music.
 
In The Zone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 26,495
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

But which states?
In The Zone is offline  
post #5 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:12 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,434
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pureracket View Post


+



=



And, how are you doing Pure?
G1Player2 is offline  
post #6 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:16 AM
It's like cool epilepsy.
 
Ellery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Brissy
Posts: 64,702
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

So based on the image, BushMcCain, Coffins and Obamaland are all states now. Very interesting, thanks.
Ellery is offline  
post #7 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:16 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: florida
Posts: 24,592
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

ITZ,
All of the states. AZ might be a bit of a tossup, though.

Nah, but seriously, we've never said that we won't need Hillary and Bill's help in order to win this. I hope they campaign for the overall Democratic party as hard as they are for themselves. I suspect that Bill will campaign rather heartily for Barack, though. He has his legacy to consider, and he has quite a bit to atone for because of the primary fights.

Also, Barack has run a very tight campaign, I suspect his VP will be very carefully chosen. His VP selection will probably be brilliant as well. Who knows? He may choose HRC.

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public!
Pureracket is offline  
post #8 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:17 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: florida
Posts: 24,592
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellery View Post
So based on the image, BushMcCain, Coffins and Obamaland are all states now. Very interesting, thanks.
You're welcome, and anytime.

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public!
Pureracket is offline  
post #9 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:17 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: florida
Posts: 24,592
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Quote:
Originally Posted by GPlayer21 View Post


And, how are you doing Pure?
GP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public!
Pureracket is offline  
post #10 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:18 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 10,389
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Clinton will put Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arkansas in play
Obama will put Iowa (which went to Gore in '00), Colorado, Virginia and some other states in play

The thing though is that Florida + Ohio + Pennsylvania is more than enough electoral college votes to win
CJ07 is offline  
post #11 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:18 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 9,232
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

I never understood this argument. Logically speaking, the BEST hypothetical candidate to go against McCain would be a carbon copy of McCain- a white, Christian Vietnam "hero" with the exact same policies and positions, but ten years younger and more eloquent. In other words, McCain, but better. Would you want that hypothetical candidate for the Democratic nomination? Of course not.
Donny is offline  
post #12 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:18 AM
Senior Member
 
drake3781's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 15,915
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Way to ruin a thread. Delete it and start it over, maybe people can stay on topic next time.
drake3781 is offline  
post #13 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:18 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 5,793
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Sorry this is long but here it goes,

He is winning in every poll I've seen in Colorado and Iowa and is often leading in New Mexico and Nevada. He substantially outperforms her in all of these states. If he wins three of those four states then he wins the election. And this is during probably the weakest period of his campaign. His numbers will only improve because the issues with Wright, etc. will become somewhat old news.

In addition, what your scenario fails to point out is that Hillary does have a real problem holding onto some states Kerry wins. In fact between the two of them what I've seen is that they both would lose New Hampshire at this point (although I don't think this is likely) and she loses Wisconsin. So she actually starts behind in states won by Kerry. While Obama runs slightly worse than she does in Pennsylvania, she runs worse than him in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, etc. They both have states, and I would argue she has more states, that they will have to defend in the general so that argument is a wash.

Second to assume that Hillary is a lock to win Arkansas or Ohio I think is very presumptuous. Arkansas has become rather Republican in recent presidential elections, and it presumes people will think of her as their own. Ohio also has a conservative bent. I think she certainly could win those states and probably is the favorite but she will need to spend significant resources in both places to pull off a victory in either state.

Now onto Obama, Obama performs substantially better west of the Mississippi than she does. I think this primarily has to do with the ethnic makeup of whites in those states. They tend not to be the tradtional white ethnic "minorities" such as Italians or Irish who don't have a history of racial tension and seem much more willing to vote for an African-American candidate than the white working class in the East. In addition, people are presuming that because the white working class in Eastern states are voting for Hillary means they won't vote for Obama in the general which I don't necessarily think is the case.

In addition, luckily for Obama, the poor demographics for him in states in the Northeast are often offset by the number of upscale liberals or African-Americans that will allow him to win the Northeastern states without the majority of the vote of the white working class. The early polling that showed him somewhat struggling in Northeastern states has evaporated as recent reputable polling companies such as Rasmussen have shown him opening up double digit general election leads in states like New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Also, he keeps things closer in Virginia and North Carolina and will force McCain to compete here probably because of the substantial African-American population coupled with the highly educated white populations in Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle respectively.

So while Hillary certainly is a formidable candidate and would probably be favored in the general election using the old Democratic map and picking up Ohio, he actually has more options than she does at expanding the map and picking up votes in places Democrats have been historically very weak. Just look at the single digit margins in states like North Dakota, South Dakota, and the allocated CD's in Nebraska. While he may not win these states it will force the Republicans to spend resources in states they won't want to so that he can hold onto Pennsylvania while picking up the states like Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.

Venus Williams-Ana Ivanovic-Serena Williams-Vika Azarenka-Caroline Wozniacki

McHale-Stephens-Watson-Robson-Townsend

Brodsky-Muhammad-Hampton-Keys-Crawford-Andrews-Hardebeck
ptkten is offline  
post #14 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:19 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: florida
Posts: 24,592
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Quote:
Originally Posted by drake3781 View Post
Way to ruin a thread. Delete it and start it over, maybe people can stay on topic next time.
You're upset because I posted an answer before you could make some passive aggressive racial remark before you bolted?

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

I don't mind straight people as long as they act gay in public!
Pureracket is offline  
post #15 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:23 AM Thread Starter
it's just me against the music.
 
In The Zone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 26,495
                     
Re: The 2008 Electoral College

Just as many polls that have Hillary down in Wisconsin have her up.

And New Hampshire is vulnerable, yes. But for Obama it hurts more than it would for her.

Colorado is very tough. I don't see him winning it. Iowa, Obama will win. Hillary will claw for it, 50/50.

But again, that's not 270. What states?
In The Zone is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the TennisForum.com forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Image Verification
Please enter the six letters or digits that appear in the image opposite.

Registration Image

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome