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post #16 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:23 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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You're upset because I posted an answer before you could make some passive aggressive racial remark before you bolted?
And now, if someone responds to this, they are racist but not you for bringing race up.

Stay on topic, please.
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post #17 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:24 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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I never understood this argument. Logically speaking, the BEST hypothetical candidate to go against McCain would be a carbon copy of McCain- a white, Christian Vietnam "hero" with the exact same policies and positions, but ten years younger and more eloquent. In other words, McCain, but better. Would you want that hypothetical candidate for the Democratic nomination? Of course not.
Okay, great. Now, which states?
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post #18 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:25 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Just as many polls that have Hillary down in Wisconsin have her up.

And New Hampshire is vulnerable, yes. But for Obama it hurts more than it would for her.

Colorado is very tough. I don't see him winning it. Iowa, Obama will win. Hillary will claw for it, 50/50.

But again, that's not 270. What states?
You're disregarding ptken's post, which has empirical evidence, with your own "hunches."


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post #19 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:26 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Just as many polls that have Hillary down in Wisconsin have her up.

And New Hampshire is vulnerable, yes. But for Obama it hurts more than it would for her.

Colorado is very tough. I don't see him winning it. Iowa, Obama will win. Hillary will claw for it, 50/50.

But again, that's not 270. What states?
Mydd.com, a pro Hillary blog, has Obama beating McCain 275 to 263 in a theoretical matchup.

http://www.mydd.com/

Check the top left corner.
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post #20 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:26 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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And now, if someone responds to this, they are racist but not you for bringing race up.

Stay on topic, please.
I know you're not talking. Do I need to bring up that embarrassing MJF debacle where you looked foolish when you brought race up? No? Didn't think so.

Maybe you should consider not jumping into a conversation because you've shown you can't deal. Now, if we're going to get back on topic, give me some proof to your "hunches."

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post #21 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:28 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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I know you're not talking. Do I need to bring up that embarrassing MJF debacle where you looked foolish when you brought race up? No? Didn't think so.

Maybe you should consider not jumping into a conversation because you've shown you can't deal. Now, if we're going to get back on topic, give me some proof to your "hunches."
Don't be so insensitive. You know reality and facts have an anti Clinton bias.
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post #22 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:29 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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You're disregarding ptken's post, which has empirical evidence, with your own "hunches."

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE? No, it doesn't. It's talk, like any other post.

Ohio is Clinton country. It'll go to Hillary. They loved Bill. And they love her. Ohio is one of the states that has been destroyed by the economy. They won't go Republican if Hillary is on the ballot.

Arkansas is not an assumption. That, again, is Clinton country. Polls have her up 30 or so. When McCain, in turn, is up 30 on Obama.

Florida will be close. But she puts it in play. Which would protect a New Hampshire loss and Wisconsin loss. I think she would lose New Hampshire, but not Wisconsin. She wouldn't even need Florida to win. 251 + 20 + 6 = 277. NH is only 4 votes. So 273 if she loses it.
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post #23 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:30 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Don't be so insensitive. You know reality and facts have an anti Clinton bias.
Oh really? ... Which states.

Reality and facts show Ohio and Arkansas are locks which give Hillary the win.
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post #24 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:32 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

You can't just throw out evidence that don't support your views. He IS winning Colorado based on every poll that's been out there. He's winning in Iowa and Nevada based on an average of the polls. I could sit here and say I don't think she's going to win Ohio but the evidence says it's possible so I don't just throw out the evidence. In addition, she IS losing in Wisconsin by basically every poll. There have one or two polls over the primary seasons that have been outliers with her winning but based on the vast majority of polls he's consistently ahead of her there. Also, based on an average of the polls Obama's beating McCain in Michigan and she's losing to him. But I guess that doesn't count because it doesn't fit what you think is going to happen.

I'm not saying Hillary would lose but to act like she clearly has an easier route to the white house is not based on fact and is only based on what sensationalized news reports want you to think.

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post #25 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:33 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Oh really? ... Which states.

Reality and facts show Ohio and Arkansas are locks which give Hillary the win.
Indiana Colorado and Iowa.
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post #26 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:35 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Indiana Colorado and Iowa.
Indiana?!? You lost all credibility for this thread.
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post #27 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:37 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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You can't just throw out evidence that don't support your views. He IS winning Colorado based on every poll that's been out there. He's winning in Iowa and Nevada based on an average of the polls. I could sit here and say I don't think she's going to win Ohio but the evidence says it's possible so I don't just throw out the evidence. In addition, she IS losing in Wisconsin by basically every poll. There have one or two polls over the primary seasons that have been outliers with her winning but based on the vast majority of polls he's consistently ahead of her there. Also, based on an average of the polls Obama's beating McCain in Michigan and she's losing to him. But I guess that doesn't count because it doesn't fit what you think is going to happen.

I'm not saying Hillary would lose but to act like she clearly has an easier route to the white house is not based on fact and is only based on what sensationalized news reports want you to think.
Okay.

251. Iowa, Nevada, Colorado. What do we get? 272. And that's being very generous. That is not considering the amount of time and sweat he'll need to spend in those 3 states and leave states like New Jersey, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania vulnerable.
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post #28 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:38 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

If McCain doesn't win Ohio (20), then his chance of winning goes from 40% to 0.01%.

Other crucial states that the Republicans needs to win;
Florida (27) - high chance of winning against Obama, a real dogfight if its against Clinton
Wisconisin (10) - high chance of winning against Clinton, an underdog against Obama
Colorado (9) - high chance of winning against Clinton, should win against Obama as well though
Arkansas (6) - No contest if against Obama, but could be a close contest against Hillary

Plus one of
Nevada (5) - McCain should win here, unless Democrats put heaps of effort into here
New Hampshire (4) - McCain should in here, especially if he goes on with the message that his run to the Presidency started there.

The more the Wright controversy goes on the more it hurts Obama, and the Republicans - as Clinton does seem to be the strongest candidate of the three right now

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post #29 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:38 AM
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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Indiana?!? You lost all credibility for this thread.
I agree he won't win there but it's a credible suggestion considering the last general election poll in the state had Obama up by 1. But again, the poll obviously doesn't matter because anything that doesn't show that Clinton is running stronger against McCain clearly must be biased or wrong.

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post #30 of 56 (permalink) Old May 4th, 2008, 04:39 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The 2008 Electoral College

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If McCain doesn't win Ohio (20), then his chance of winning goes from 40% to 0.01%.

Other crucial states that the Republicans needs to win;
Florida (27) - high chance of winning against Obama, a real dogfight if its against Clinton
Wisconisin (10) - high chance of winning against Clinton, an underdog against Obama
Colorado (9) - high chance of winning against Clinton, should win against Obama as well though
Arkansas (6) - No contest if against Obama, but could be a close contest against Hillary

Plus one of
Nevada (5) - McCain should win here, unless Democrats put heaps of effort into here
New Hampshire (4) - McCain should in here, especially if he goes on with the message that his run to the Presidency started there.

The more the Wright controversy goes on the more it hurts Obama, and the Republicans - as Clinton does seem to be the strongest candidate of the three right now
Whoa. This from kittyking? Using common sense? DAMN SON.
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