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post #1 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 05:31 AM Thread Starter
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Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Posted April 23, 2008 | 04:15 PM (EST)

Let's forget about the spin on all sides and not use any adjectives to modify the following 10 Facts that should not be in dispute:

1. Hillary Clinton won by 10%, 220,000 votes, despite after most of the polls in the last several weeks on RealClearPolitics, including its RCP all-poll average, showed her ahead by single digits and dropping. The exit polls showed her winning by +5. (It's easy to forget that she won if you listen to the Obama spinners last night and today. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania's Rep. Murphy, a freshman congressman who supported Barack Obama, actually said last night on Larry King that Senator Obama did so well in losing to Senator Clinton yesterday that he has a "wind at his back." I am not kidding.

2. Senator Obama tried hard to win the state, campaigned intensely throughout the state for most of the last six weeks -- and was trying to win, not just lose a narrow margin.

3. He spent $11 million on media -- about three times more than Senator Clinton.

4. Most of his ads were personal negative attack ads against Senator Clinton, meaning attacks on her character and integrity.

5. There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania.

6. Barack Obama hasn't won a single major industrial state that historically constitute the key "battleground" states for both parties, i.e., the states in the last three or four presidential elections have switched back and forth between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

7. The reason that he lost can be found in the demographic data: He lost -- and Senator Clinton won -- by substantial margins blue collar and middle class white voters earning under $50,000 a year, senior citizens, rural voters, Hispanic voters, and women voters -- all core constituencies in the Democratic base that must be won if a Democrat is to win the White House. For example, yesterday in Pennsylvania she won Roman Catholics by 32 percent (66034), union households by 18 percent (59-41), and those most concerned about the economy by 16 points (58-42). Only 60 percent of Democratic Catholic voters said they would vote for Mr. Obama in a general election.

8. Barack Obama has lost these same demographic groups in Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, California and New Jersey and other major states that Senator Clinton won. There is a factual pattern of his weakness among these demographic groups in virtually every primary state that cannot be disputed.

9. Barack Obama is currently in a dead heat with John McCain, according to a recent respected poll, in Massachusetts (actually, the results were McCain 46% and Clinton 44%), while Senator Clinton leads in Massachusetts by 15%. The last time a Democrat did not win Massachusetts by a substantial margin was 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. Even in the historic landslide election of Richard Nixon in 1972, when he won 49 states, only Massachusetts supported Senator McGovern. Senator Obama currently runs considerably behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio, while Senator Clinton is ahead in both of those key battleground states.

10. Current polls show Senator Clinton runs ahead of John McCain nationally or dead even -- and Senator Obama runs only dead even. For example, in the most recent USA Today national general election poll, Senator Clinton leads Senator McCain by +6; Senator Obama leads by less than the margin of error, +2.

Those are the facts. To all Super Delegates: you decide who is riskier as a general election candidate. The candidate whose negatives, driven by the right-wing hate machine in the 1990s in particular, are all out there and already taken into account. Or a candidate who is still virtually unknown to most of the electorate, with Republicans clearly looking forward to filling in the blanks with the facts about his record of which many general election voters still are not aware.


You know who the republicans are hoping get's the nod!

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post #2 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 05:37 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Exactly why I don't buy the whole Obama is better. He'll be taken down and he'll be taken down hard. Both Hillary and Obama should win but he is much more vulnerable.
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post #3 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 05:44 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

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Originally Posted by In The Zone View Post
Exactly why I don't buy the whole Obama is better. He'll be taken down and he'll be taken down hard. Both Hillary and Obama should win but he is much more vulnerable.
I agree!

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post #4 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 07:00 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png




http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvC600.png


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post #5 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 07:09 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

^^ To the above post, which I don't want to quote, that level of analysis is not good enough.

Assuming the goal is to nominate an electable candidate, we need to analyze by state, dividing the states into categories, and focusing almost exclusively on the Swing States.
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post #6 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 07:18 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

In November, McCain will take Florida. Obama will take Michigan and maybe Pennsylvania.

Obama will need to win Ohio over McCain to win the election, IMO. If he doesn't win Ohio, then McCain will be president.
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post #7 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 07:47 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obamab View Post
In November, McCain will take Florida. Obama will take Michigan and maybe Pennsylvania.

Obama will need to win Ohio over McCain to win the election, IMO. If he doesn't win Ohio, then McCain will be president.
To quote another post I made last night, here are polling results from the three most important Swing States: Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Quote:
Originally Posted by drake3781 View Post
Current polling shows:

Ohio
McCain defeats Obama by 2.5 points.
Clinton defeats McCain by 5 points.

Florida
McCain defeats Obama by 12 points.
Clinton-McCain are even.

Pennsylvania
Obama defeats McCain by 2 points
Clinton defeats McCain by 6 points.


In these critical swing states, Hillary outperforms Obama. What you see right here explains why Hillary is still in this race, in a bigger way than most people understand by just looking at delegate counts.
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post #8 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 07:59 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Hillary has won only half as many states as Obama and trails by a reasonable number in the popular vote.

If Hillary wants a Democrat to win come November she needs to call her campaign off soon, all she's doing is helping the Republicans

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post #9 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 08:24 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Quote:
Originally Posted by kittyking View Post
Hillary has won only half as many states as Obama and trails by a reasonable number in the popular vote.

If Hillary wants a Democrat to win come November she needs to call her campaign off soon, all she's doing is helping the Republicans
Poor analysis; poor conclusion.
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post #10 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 08:29 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

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Originally Posted by drake3781 View Post
Poor analysis; poor conclusion.
Yet you agree with every single word in it

Mark my words - Hillary Clinton will never be the American President

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post #11 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 08:53 AM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

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Originally Posted by kittyking View Post
Yet you agree with every single word in it

Mark my words - Hillary Clinton will never be the American President


Uh, I have no idea what you mean by saying I agree with every word.

Also I have no idea why you pose yourself as an expert both factually and prognostically on US Presidential elections... a teenager from New Zealand. Is it maybe just possible that people from the US, who have been involved in election campaigns since before you were born, might know a thing or two?
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post #12 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 12:47 PM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

plantman,
Who's your candidate in this year's election? Also, why do you never post the actual link to your stories?

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post #13 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 03:21 PM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

At this stage all this polling means nothing. Six months ago McCain himself was not considered to be the GOP nominee, likewise Obama was not considered the forerunner either. The only way Hillary can win is for the establishment to give it to her and how democratic that would be. If the DNC follow the rules that were agreed to by all before the primaries there is no way Hillary can win. Her only hope is to promise the world to some of the superdelegates in exchange for their votes and destroy the democratic party and never become president anyway because she cannot appeal to Independents or Republicans therefore if she lost a segment of the democratic party it is even worse. Obama has the advantage to appeal to Independents, Republicans and new voters therefore he stands a better chance to make up for some of the idiots who call themselves democrats but won't vote for him.

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post #14 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 03:41 PM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Sure Hillary performs better in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but look at the facts.

All the following statistics are from realclearpolitics.com

Obama v. McCain

Obama still leads McCain in Pennsylvania by an average of 2.2%. I believe that number will go up as the weeks go on. In polling, he leads in every other state that Kerry won in the last election. That is 252 electoral votes.

He is also currently leading McCain in Colorado and Iowa by good margins. That is an additional 16 electoral votes, which puts him at 268. That is without Ohio and Florida.

Hillary v. McCain

Hillary is leading in Ohio, that puts her at 252 + 20 = 272. She is losing, however in Wisconsin to McCain and gets blown out in Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. This puts her at 263. Yes, she runs closer in Florida than Obama but she still loses the state according to the polls.

Thus, with states they are leading against McCain, it's Obama 268-263. He tries to win the election by holding his vulnerable blue states but where he is still leading (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan) and picks up Colorado and Iowa along with Nevada, where he is running very close to McCain which puts him up over 269.

For Hillary, she tries to hold a blue state she is currently losing (Wisconsin) and hold blue states where she is leading but winning within the margin of error with McCain (Minnesota, Oregon) then pick up Ohio which would put her over 269.

Neither has a stronger path to the White House than the other. They just have different states where they are stronger and hers happen to be 'bigger' but not necessarily more important. Regardless, polls aren't very indicative at this stage in the race and I think they both would easily win if they were the nominee because I think Obama will end up winning Ohio from McCain and Hillary will end up winning Florida even if they are losing them now.

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Last edited by ptkten; Apr 24th, 2008 at 03:47 PM.
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post #15 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 24th, 2008, 03:53 PM
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Re: Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Quote:
Originally Posted by kittyking View Post
Hillary has won only half as many states as Obama and trails by a reasonable number in the popular vote.

If Hillary wants a Democrat to win come November she needs to call her campaign off soon, all she's doing is helping the Republicans

This is an extremely poor analysis. If the 2000 election has taught us anything, it's that the popular vote does not matter at all. What matters are the key battleground swing states.

Yes, Obama has won many states. Interestingly enough, many of them are Southern states and Midwestern states ... states that the Democrats will never, ever win.

Obama has won Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Wyoming, Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska, etc. Do you honestly think he will come even close to winning these states in the general election?

What matters are critical swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Missouri. Clinton is much more competitive against McCain in these key states.
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