Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 05:52 PM Thread Starter
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Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

Delegate counts

If all the remaining superdelegates commit to either Hillary or Obama after PA (Hillary by 20 pts):

................................Hillary......Obama
current.......................1508.........1650
plus PA (60&#37.................95............63
remaining SD.................321...........321
total..........................1924.........2034
needed......................2024..........2024
deficit/surplus..............-100............10

Obama wins!


If all the remaining superdelegates commit to either Hillary or Obama after PA (Hillary by 10 pts):

................................Hillary......Obama
current.......................1508.........1650
plus PA (55%).................87............71
remaining SD.................321...........321
total..........................1916.........2041
needed......................2024..........2024
deficit/surplus..............-108............18

Obama wins!

Calculator

Hillary needs to win every remaining state 64%-37% to get enough Delegates.

Worse, if Hillary would have won PA by 20, and then continues on to score a big win in IN (by 20 pts) and keep it close in NC (Obama wins by 6 pts), she would only net 7 more delegates (in addition to the 32 from PA), and still be far behind (by 127 pledged delegates and 103 total delegates):

................................Hillary......Obama
plus IN (Hillary 60%).........43............29
plus NC (Obama 53%).......54............61


She can't win.

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post #2 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 05:54 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

I hope she's able to deliver some states like NYC and PA for the Democratic party in November, though. I have all the faith in the world that she can do it too.

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post #3 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 06:02 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

omg why don't you call her up?

With the hundreds of advisors around her no one got this message to her


cause when a heart breaks, it never breaks even.....
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post #4 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 06:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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Originally Posted by abercrombieguy23 View Post
omg why don't you call her up?

With the hundreds of advisors around her no one got this message to her

You have her digits?

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post #5 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:00 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

Why would you assume the remaining SD would split down the middle for them? I could start a thread and say "oh my god, if all the remaining super delegates just go for Hillary then SHE WINS!" No shit, Sherlock.
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post #6 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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Why would you assume the remaining SD would split down the middle for them? I could start a thread and say "oh my god, if all the remaining super delegates just go for Hillary then SHE WINS!" No shit, Sherlock.
Do the math. Even the remaining ones aren't going to help win.

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post #7 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:13 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

So then you are trying to tell me that you are so smart that you figured this out and yet no one else has picked up on this? If it was impossible for her to win, then the race would be over. There is a reason they have to get to 2024 because THAT is the number at which you can't be passed. It's math! And you brag about how smart the Obama supporters are.
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post #8 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:16 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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So then you are trying to tell me that you are so smart that you figured this out and yet no one else has picked up on this? If it was impossible for her to win, then the race would be over. There is a reason they have to get to 2024 because THAT is the number at which you can't be passed. It's math! And you brag about how smart the Obama supporters are.
I'm not trying to say that I'm the only one who's figured this out, but it's obvious that there are others who have not.

Do the math! She's a great candidate for alot of people, but she can't win.

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post #9 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:17 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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So then you are trying to tell me that you are so smart that you figured this out and yet no one else has picked up on this? If it was impossible for her to win, then the race would be over. There is a reason they have to get to 2024 because THAT is the number at which you can't be passed. It's math! And you brag about how smart the Obama supporters are.
Exactly.... this race is far from over....
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post #10 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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Exactly.... this race is far from over....
Nah, mathematically, it's over.

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post #11 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:30 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

I understand now! This latest loss has you really concerned that perhaps Hillary can pull this off and it has made you a little cooky. Take your time and get better, honey!
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post #12 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:31 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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Nah, mathematically, it's over.
No it is Mathematically over when one of them reaches 2025...
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post #13 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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I understand now! This latest loss has you really concerned that perhaps Hillary can pull this off and it has made you a little cooky. Take your time and get better, honey!
Once I saw that it was below 20%, I was cool. I'm not concerned about him losing @ all. She'll have a likely deficit of 100 to 150 going into the convention. But it won't go that far. She can't catch up, and Howard Dean has called for superdelegates to endorse to get the primaries over with. And many prominent Democratic insiders have said that they don't expect it to go to the convention. My prediction is that this will be over come the second or third week of May. And that Hillary won't win the endorsement of enough of the remaining superdelegates to put her over the top.

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


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post #14 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:34 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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No it is Mathematically over when one of them reaches 2025...
Because FL and MI will be excluded, neither may get there. They will go with the candidate with the most pledged delegates. HRC cannot overtake Barack @ this point.

She can't win!

-one of those "bad" Williams fans that everyone keeps talking about


OFFICIAL BLACKSMITH OF THE ROYAL COURT

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post #15 of 57 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 07:57 PM
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Re: Hillary needed more than 20% in PA, and the superdelegates can't help

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My prediction is that this will be over come the second or third week of May. And that Hillary won't win the endorsement of enough of the remaining superdelegates to put her over the top.
So then you are completely contradicting yourself. You have just admitted that it is NOT mathematically over. You predict it WILL eventually be once enough super delegates go for Obama but that is only a prediction and not yet reality.
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