If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for? - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 05:46 AM Thread Starter
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If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

There's two ways of looking at this, it seems:

Firstly, Clinton is less favoured among swing voters than Obama. She's said to be more divisive. We can go on about whether the reasons are fair, but the fact is that she is - judging by the polls. Women might want a woman president and begrudge Obama snatching it away, but their rights and concerns would be much better represented under Obama's presidency than McCain's.

What is more, black voters are mostly core Democrat supporters. If Clinton takes this to the death and wrests victory from Obama, she is going to have an uphill struggle to then galvanise those same voters to support her at the ballot box in November. Losing swathes of the black vote would be disastrous to the Democrat campaign in key states like Florida, Ohio and PA. Of course, blacks are represented far better by the Dems than by the Republicans, and Bill Clinton was popular among black Americans, but you could understand why black voters who keenly anticipated Obama becoming the first black president would be embittered and could never forgive Clinton if she received the nomination. After all, she is behind in the national vote, she cannot catch Obama's delegate count, most states have plumped for Obama, and therefore she has, in many eyes, a weak case for becoming the Democrat candidate. If the required amount of superdelegates supported Hillary, then to many fervent Obama supporters, but also to swing voters and the generally apathetic electorate who Clinton will seek to mobilise, the decision would whiff of political skull duggery acting against the will of the people.

But there's another side to all of this:

Clinton has built her campaign largely on an image of being tough-talking and resilient. Most recently she has used the card of being the underdog in order to garner support. There is no question that for the last couple of months, Clinton has been the underdog, and at times has been written off.

If Clinton took this to the wire, and finally won the nomination, then while some would begrudge her, surely as many would commend her for refusing to give up in the face adversity both on a campaign and on a financial level. She has even dipped into her personal funds to bolster her at times flagging effort. Nobody will ever be able to doubt Clinton's ambition to become the first woman President again, nor that her motives are laudable and heartfelt.

She would then take that image to the voters, as the sturdy, wily, indomitable leader who would not -- and you can hear the soundbites now -- give up on America, just as she did not give up on her campaign.

And she'd also have a strong case when trying to persuade superdelegates that she has won comfortable margins over Obama in most of the key states, and it is those states in which she is clearly popular, and on which the last two general elections have hinged. Obama has won big in states which almost never go blue: would CLinton be more likely to tip the key states in favour of the Democrats?


By the way...does anybody have the actual total vote count at this stage, or before today, of Clinton against Obama, taking all the primaries into account?
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post #2 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 23rd, 2008, 06:51 AM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

you mean smth like this?
http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/

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post #3 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 05:25 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

Isn't it silly that in late April, after most of the Democratic primary state elections, the Democratic Party
is still worrying about super delegate counts, and the fact not one delegate is obligated to vote for anyone
in particular.

So, your votes earlier, don't really count?
Or do we count all the real votes?
Or do we just count the super delegate votes?

Anyway........Hillary and Obama agree on 99 and 9/10ths' of everything.

They are the same thing on all major issues.

The only difference is their appearance and personality, one has been around
for nearly 30 years in politics, the other for about 20 years.

That's it.


If you believe in Obama, blame him if he loses the nomination. He should have
been able to put her away a long time ago. They're playing by the same rules.
He has lots more money and has had tons more since the fall. Hillary is almost
out of cash. The media loves Obama, not Hillary and Bill right now. How can he lose?
With his own mistakes and arrogance. He should have stopped the Wright scandal a long
time ago. Instead, he fuled the fire by trying to paint him as a crazy old pastor
uncle figure, one Obama barely has any connection to. In reality, not true.

If you're a liberal Democrat, or liberal independent, vote Obama or Hillary. They're
the same thing. Either one will deliver the same stuff.

The party knew the rules when the campaign began.
No time to whine because your guy may not win by the rules afterall.
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post #4 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:15 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

Obama currently leads by 1.7% in the popular vote, .7% w/ Florida and Clinton is ahead by a similar margin w/ Michigan.

Her only hope is to win Indiana big, keep a narrow loss in North Carolina and then blow out Obama in Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico. Then, pull off an upset in Montana/South Dakota and keep a loss in Oregon.

Basically, she has to win the popular vote with at most Florida. If she can manage that, she has an argument, if not she doesn't.

Its just too bad she couldn't made this comeback about 2 months ago.
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post #5 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:18 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

Again, read this carefully, popular votes are NOT going to factor into the decision making. Even if Obama wins them, that is not going to be a viable argument.

Like I said earlier, if popular votes mattered all that much Obama would've spent more time in NY instead of camping out in Iowa winning the caucuses there.

It comes down to the delegates. Words like "momentum" and "electability" are words people use when they are asking for lawsuits.

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post #6 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:27 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

Many African Americans may be disappointed if Obama loses the candidacy but I doubt many would switch allegiances to the Republican party because of it. Clinton may seem an unfavourable compared to Obama but I would guess she would be quite favourable compared to McCain.

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post #7 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:29 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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Originally Posted by Pureracket View Post
Again, read this carefully, popular votes are NOT going to factor into the decision making. Even if Obama wins them, that is not going to be a viable argument.

Like I said earlier, if popular votes mattered all that much Obama would've spent more time in NY instead of camping out in Iowa winning the caucuses there.

It comes down to the delegates. Words like "momentum" and "electability" are words people use when they are asking for lawsuits.
I understand, but if she is within 100 delegates and wins the popular vote by winning the end of the contests, then her supporters will be up and arms.

And although Obama has the African-American vote, they're the least likely to defect.
Clinton is winning Reagan Democrats to stay in thing - and they're called Reagan Democrats for a reason.
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post #8 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:29 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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Originally Posted by kwilliams View Post
Many African Americans may be disappointed if Obama loses the candidacy but I doubt many would switch allegiances to the Republican party because of it. Clinton may seem an unfavourable compared to Obama but I would guess she would be quite favourable compared to McCain.
Right. African Americans vote Democratic by a 90% margin I think almost. I highly doubt they're going to defect. Plus, she'd have to offer the VP slot to Obama.

And there would probably be a lot of pressure on him to take it to save the party.
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post #9 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:34 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

It's funny. This is not the GENERAL ELECTION. This is our party nominating a leader to run for President. So basically, if more than half our party wants one person, we should without consequence or worry, pick the other?

This is unprecedented. It speaks more about the system being flawed. And not the popular vote being meaningless.
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post #10 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:35 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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Right. African Americans vote Democratic by a 90% margin I think almost. I highly doubt they're going to defect. Plus, she'd have to offer the VP slot to Obama.
And there would probably be a lot of pressure on him to take it to save the party.
I'd like to think he would take it too but I'm not sure that he would.

I can't believe 10% of African American vote Republican! I thought it was more like 3%, though that was just an impression I had.

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post #11 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 06:39 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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Originally Posted by In The Zone View Post
It's funny. This is not the GENERAL ELECTION. This is our party nominating a leader to run for President. So basically, if more than half our party wants one person, we should without consequence or worry, pick the other?

This is unprecedented. It speaks more about the system being flawed. And not the popular vote being meaningless.
This has been in place for years and years. Gore and Kerry both won the popular vote(CA & NY), but the assignments of delegates is what counts.

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post #12 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 07:02 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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This has been in place for years and years. Gore and Kerry both won the popular vote(CA & NY), but the assignments of delegates is what counts.
We'll see. I think the Texas debacle already shows you that the delegate assignment isn't what simply counts.
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post #13 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 07:09 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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I'd like to think he would take it too but I'm not sure that he would.

I can't believe 10% of African American vote Republican! I thought it was more like 3%, though that was just an impression I had.
I think it might be 5% actually. I dunno I'm one of them
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post #14 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 07:29 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

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We'll see. I think the Texas debacle already shows you that the delegate assignment isn't what simply counts.
There wasn't a Texas debacle. Obama got more delegates after his supporters followed the process.

Why do you call it a debacle?

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post #15 of 73 (permalink) Old Apr 29th, 2008, 07:46 PM
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Re: If, by improbability, Clinton wins the Nom': will there be anything to fight for?

I don't know if I would call it a debacle but it is certainly a weird process. They hold the primary and then a caucus but the catch is that only people who voted in the primary can caucus. So what is the point of having a do over? It is almost like it is a contest to see whose supporters are willing to go the extra mile. Unfortunately, life doesn't allow everyone to devote the time to caucus. You have all day to get in your primary vote but to caucus you have to be there at a certain time AND be able to stay for a certain length of time. Doesn't work for everyone. Why not do something fun next election and see what candidate can get the most supporters to cut off a finger, the winner gets 10 extra delegates.
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