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post #1 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2006, 03:32 PM Thread Starter
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Iran Can Now Make Glowing Mickey Mouse Watches

by Juan Cole

Despite all the sloppy and inaccurate headlines about Iran "going nuclear," the fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they "cascade."

The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.

The crisis is not one of nuclear enrichment, a low-level attainment that does not necessarily lead to having a bomb. Even if Iran had a bomb, it is hard to see how they could be more dangerous than Communist China, which has lots of such bombs, and whose Walmart stores are a clever ruse to wipe out the middle class American family through funneling in cheaply made Chinese goods.

What is really going on here is a ratcheting war of rhetoric. The Iranian hard liners are down to a popularity rating in Iran of about 15%. They are using their challenge to the Bush administration over their perfectly legal civilian nuclear energy research program as a way of enhancing their nationalist credentials in Iran.

Likewise, Bush is trying to shore up his base, which is desperately unhappy with the Iraq situation, by rattling sabres at Iran. Bush's poll numbers are so low, often in the mid-30s, that he must have lost part of his base to produce this result. Iran is a great deus ex machina for Bush. Rally around the flag yet again.

If this international game of chicken goes wrong, then the whole Middle East and much of Western Europe could go up in flames. The real threat here is not unconventional war, which Iran cannot fight for the foreseeable future. It is the spread of Iraq-style instability to more countries in the region.

Bush and Ahmadinejad could be working together toward the Perfect Storm.
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post #2 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2006, 09:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azdaja
by Juan Cole

Despite all the sloppy and inaccurate headlines about Iran "going nuclear," the fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they "cascade."

The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.

The crisis is not one of nuclear enrichment, a low-level attainment that does not necessarily lead to having a bomb. Even if Iran had a bomb, it is hard to see how they could be more dangerous than Communist China, which has lots of such bombs, and whose Walmart stores are a clever ruse to wipe out the middle class American family through funneling in cheaply made Chinese goods.

What is really going on here is a ratcheting war of rhetoric. The Iranian hard liners are down to a popularity rating in Iran of about 15%. They are using their challenge to the Bush administration over their perfectly legal civilian nuclear energy research program as a way of enhancing their nationalist credentials in Iran.

Likewise, Bush is trying to shore up his base, which is desperately unhappy with the Iraq situation, by rattling sabres at Iran. Bush's poll numbers are so low, often in the mid-30s, that he must have lost part of his base to produce this result. Iran is a great deus ex machina for Bush. Rally around the flag yet again.

If this international game of chicken goes wrong, then the whole Middle East and much of Western Europe could go up in flames. The real threat here is not unconventional war, which Iran cannot fight for the foreseeable future. It is the spread of Iraq-style instability to more countries in the region.

Bush and Ahmadinejad could be working together toward the Perfect Storm.
I like the title.
Anyway, this is what I've been saying! [Nuclear]Political posturing and rhetoric is the flavor-of-the-day for these present administrations.

And I find it interesting that no one has yet responded to this very cogent article. Oh well... let the dog and pony show continue.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery. - Malcolm X
A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything. - Malcolm X
Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall. - Confucius
The greatest scholars are not usually the wisest people. - Geoffrey Chaucer
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post #3 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2006, 09:15 PM Thread Starter
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well, unlike other articles this one is not sensationalist and actually explains what's going on. i mean, it is a very dangerous situation, but not because iran is about to go nuclear.
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post #4 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2006, 10:16 PM
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OMG That title

CHARDY | CHIUDINELLI | CIPOLLA


Bemelmans|Camerin|Cornet|Crivoi|Cuevas|Dentoni|Dod ig|Garbin|Granollers
Hlavackova|Ilhan|Kohli|Kuznetsov|Lammer|Mannarino| Menendez|Phau|Polansky
Rezaï|Robredo|Roger-Vasselin|Srebotnik|Szavay|Wörle|Zverev

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post #5 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2006, 10:17 PM
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Very interesting read too, by the way.

CHARDY | CHIUDINELLI | CIPOLLA


Bemelmans|Camerin|Cornet|Crivoi|Cuevas|Dentoni|Dod ig|Garbin|Granollers
Hlavackova|Ilhan|Kohli|Kuznetsov|Lammer|Mannarino| Menendez|Phau|Polansky
Rezaï|Robredo|Roger-Vasselin|Srebotnik|Szavay|Wörle|Zverev

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post #6 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 16th, 2006, 03:37 AM
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mickey mouse....glowing??
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