Here's a breakdown of the % of Caro & Vika's matches in which they won the 1st set and the match went to a 3rd set. This doesn't count any matches with retirements.
Caro in 2009: 20%
Caro in 2010: 19%
Caro in 2011: 12%
Caro in 2012-2013 so far: 30%
Vika in 2010: 16%
Vika in 2011: 14%
Vika in 2012-2013 so far: 9%
What interests me is the next few weeks compared to after she lost with matchpoint to Li, just 2 years ago.
She won Dubai, final Doha, won IW, lost to Petkovic in Miami, won Charleston, final Stuttgart. Thats about 26-2 until she lost to Goerges on clay.
The difference is 2 years ago, players tried to break down Caro's forehand. her backhand was her strong side. So players went after her forehand, which she kept steady & reasonably deep last spring.
Then she decided to be more aggreesive with her forehand. Thats just what her opponents wanted, forehand errors. Caroline was giving them what they needed to beat her.
That is why an experienced coach could have helped her. Playing dificult forehand shots in key moments was great for Caroline's opponents. Not good for Caroline.
So here we are 2 years later. Vika just went to a slam final playing no one seeded above #29. Caroline was one of the seeds who couldnt get thru her draw.
So, she has to somehow get her game back to where she was 2 years ago.
I dont see anything in her game better than where she was 2 years ago. I think her confidence is a lot worse. Thats all from 18 months of high risk forehands. Instead of building on her foundation, of being a great defensive player with a very good backhand.
But this is the right situation to start moving forward. Stats will be interesting