Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6 - Page 140 - TennisForum.com
 
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post #2086 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 05:56 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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No, it's not a good draw. I'd say her 1st round opponent Suarez Navarro is arguably better on red clay and her likely potential 2nd round opponent Vinci is certainly better than Caro on red clay.
It's not a good draw, but you could put Caroline anywhere on there and it would be equally as tough. The bottom half is just as strong as the top half as well. Each match will be like a final for Caroline. Even if she survives the CSN match, which is far from certain, I'de be very surprised if she would beat Vinci considering both players current form.
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post #2087 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:04 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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It's not a good draw, but you could put Caroline anywhere on there and it would be equally as tough. The bottom half is just as strong as the top half as well. Each match will be like a final for Caroline. Even if she survives the CSN match, which is far from certain, I'de be very surprised if she would beat Vinci considering both players current form.
Ultimately while this is probably right, it's still the sort of match you'd hope Caroline should win. Vinci is still ultimately a non-contender that Caroline has to be getting through.
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post #2088 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:18 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

She will not win one Match in Stuttgart. Hope I am wrong, but i canīt believe.

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post #2089 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:20 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Ultimately while this is probably right, it's still the sort of match you'd hope Caroline should win. Vinci is still ultimately a non-contender that Caroline has to be getting through.
This not losing to non-contenders is way too high a standard for Caro off a hard court.

Caro is not a top 15 player on red clay.

If Caro can avoid losing to players ranked outside the top 30 (maybe top 50) on red clay, then I'd say that's meeting expectations.

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post #2090 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:33 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Ultimately while this is probably right, it's still the sort of match you'd hope Caroline should win. Vinci is still ultimately a non-contender that Caroline has to be getting through.
Yes, but the way things are going Caroline is slowly becoming more and more a non-contender herself while Vinci could be the surprise package of the claycourt season. That doesn't mean that things will stay that way, but going by what we have to go on now as we speak I'm not looking forward to a Woz/Vinci match on clay. But those are worries for later. The outcome of the CSN match is far from a foregone conclusion.
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post #2091 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:34 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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This not losing to non-contenders is way too high a standard for Caro off a hard court.

Caro is not a top 15 player on red clay.

If Caro can avoid losing to players ranked outside the top 30 (maybe top 50) on red clay, then I'd say that's meeting expectations.
I know you are right, ultimately I just want to see some improvement. Ranking the players on red clay is difficult, but Vinci probably isn't even in the second tier of contenders.

Meeting expectations that may be, but if she does only that she will probably find herself in bad shape in the race to Istanbul come the USO hard court season.
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post #2092 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 06:48 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Will apologize in advance if any of you feel insulted by the simplicity of my comments--no offense is intended,whatsoever.

The whole notion of 'good' and 'bad' draws is almost always pointless,IMO;it's not an empirical fact such as a player's ranking,so it's purely subjective as to what's good or bad.If a player even WORRIES about her draw,that's automatically a 'bad' situation(which is not to say that Caroline is,or isn't,doing that...who knows?,unless she mentions doing so).

I could almost bet the house that Graf and other top players either NEVER,or almost never,sweat the draw during their careers.Even Vika,who's not yet amongst the all-time elite,claims she doesn't look...and I'm inclined to believe her considering her current confident state.When you're at a high level,you're at least prepared to adapt to any draw and,conversely,when you lack confidence or form,almost NO draws will be easy enough to help you relax.I've heard lots of thread blab--especially in my former days in the Serb forum--that an easy draw would supposedly allow the struggling player to get some wins and then rebuild her confidence.That SOUNDS halfway plausible,yet I've never seen it actually work out that way....Can ANYone here cite any notable examples of that??You'll probably have to search thoroughly to find even a few.

The best solution,IMO,is for Caroline to start significantly improving her overall game on the practice court...and then gradually improve her ranking,too,as she begins to believe in her skills again by beating good PLAYERS,not scrubs from a 'good DRAW'.If Caro can return to form then,as with the really great players,almost all of her draws will be "good"

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post #2093 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 07:02 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

The reason for that is they are not oblivious to who they are beating. Even if you lack all confidence you will still probably go into a match vs the world number 200 with confidence. In most cases you are fully aware who is down the other end of the court.

It's why you see Caro get some wins and then still play Aga, Maria etc. and seem to lack all confidence, she is going to be fully aware it is a whole other level to her previous wins. It works the other way too, you will see say Sharapova play a terrible match, and the scoreline will suggest she's in trouble, but deep down you still pretty much know she is going to win, and I am sure she's aware of this too, you know she is not panicking, she still fully believes she will come back and win the match.
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post #2094 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 07:59 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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And she plays well in spurts. Miami 2012, beating Serena, losing 46 in the 3rd to Sharapova.. That could win hardcourt majors. Even this year, Dubai & IW were mostly fine, except for the IW final.
She still can play high level tennis, but cant do it consistently anymore
That Miami match against Sharapova is so overrated. Caro played poorly for most of the match and was down a double break in all 3 sets.

There are only two things about that match that are of much interest to me: Sharapova's bizarre 1st set meltdown and Caro being more aggressive when she was down big in 3rd set.

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post #2095 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 08:10 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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The reason for that is they are not oblivious to who they are beating. Even if you lack all confidence you will still probably go into a match vs the world number 200 with confidence. In most cases you are fully aware who is down the other end of the court.

It's why you see Caro get some wins and then still play Aga, Maria etc. and seem to lack all confidence, she is going to be fully aware it is a whole other level to her previous wins. It works the other way too, you will see say Sharapova play a terrible match, and the scoreline will suggest she's in trouble, but deep down you still pretty much know she is going to win, and I am sure she's aware of this too, you know she is not panicking, she still fully believes she will come back and win the match.
I agree with your logic(assuming I've grasped your points correctly),and this goes along with my argument that Caroline will NOT really get any confidence for matches with TOP players by having a 'good' draw where she beats some easy ones in the first couple rounds

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post #2096 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 08:50 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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I agree with your logic(assuming I've grasped your points correctly),and this goes along with my argument that Caroline will NOT really get any confidence for matches with TOP players by having a 'good' draw where she beats some easy ones in the first couple rounds
We already kind of know this. Caro won Seoul and Moscow but it's not like those wins really set her back on her way up is it. The anomaly to this is the fact she beat Serena in Miami, but then followed that with pretty much her worst stretch of her career in years.

Winning matches is always a good thing, but confidence wise Caro desperately needs a win over an elite player.
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post #2097 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 08:51 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Will apologize in advance if any of you feel insulted by the simplicity of my comments--no offense is intended,whatsoever.

The whole notion of 'good' and 'bad' draws is almost always pointless,IMO;it's not an empirical fact such as a player's ranking,so it's purely subjective as to what's good or bad.If a player even WORRIES about her draw,that's automatically a 'bad' situation(which is not to say that Caroline is,or isn't,doing that...who knows?,unless she mentions doing so).
Well, it's not because Caroline perhaps doesn't worry about her draw that we can't. But there really are no "easy" draws in premier events because all the players are good.
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post #2098 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 08:55 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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I know you are right, ultimately I just want to see some improvement. Ranking the players on red clay is difficult, but Vinci probably isn't even in the second tier of contenders.
Vinci looked pretty good to me and playing really well at Katowic last week. She looked so at home on the clay and knew just what to do all the time.

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post #2099 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 09:09 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Vinci looked pretty good to me and playing really well at Katowice last week. She looked so at home on the clay and knew just what to do all the time.
It's not like the competition was that fierce though. She beat a poor, unfit Kvitova and that is about it. It obviously depends how big you want to make your tiers. But by second tier I am talking fringe players who could do something big if the draw falls apart, basically outsiders (eg. Errani, Stosur etc.). I would more have Vinci in the 3rd tier of a contender for the smaller titles but (next to) no chance for the bigger titles.
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post #2100 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 09:17 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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We already kind of know this. Caro won Seoul and Moscow but it's not like those wins really set her back on her way up is it. The anomaly to this is the fact she beat Serena in Miami, but then followed that with pretty much her worst stretch of her career in years.

Winning matches is always a good thing, but confidence wise Caro desperately needs a win over an elite player.
Yes,such wins would be nice,but even THEY wouldn't be enough if Caroline didn't fundamentally believe in what she was doing in the bigger picture.As with the win over SW that you cited,she'll probably pass such victories off as flukes when she caught the top player on a bad day.

When I say that Caro might not believe in what she's doing,aye DON'T mean that she distrusts Piotr's intentions at all.However,I wonder if she sees herself as capable of returning to the top EVEN IF SHE EXECUTES EXACTLY AS PIOTR INSTRUCTS HER.She may feel that even her BEST isn't good enough to move beyond the YEC alternate 'barrier'.If she DID have such doubts,then extra time with Rory would probably be even more appealing than it otherwise would to her...and her on-court mental strength would be somewhat sapped,too

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