Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6 - Page 139 - TennisForum.com
 
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post #2071 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 01:56 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by Vaidisova View Post
Stuttgart draw, top half

Sharapova v Bye
Barthel v Safarova
Ivanovic v Petkovic
Qualifier v Petrova

Kerber v Bye
Pavlyuchenkova v Makarova
Shvedova v Vinci
Suarez Navarro v Wozniacki
The extremely photogenic CSN just opened her team's FC tie with an impressive win(though surely on a slower clay surface than Stuttgart's),and Caro's potential 2nd Round match would likely be against a gal who has just reached her career high ranking....So no cakewalks for Caroline,as expected

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post #2072 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 01:59 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by TennisFan66 View Post
You are making the assumption, she will get through the lower ranked players

Not saying it is, but given more spin and less risk on the 1st serve would make it more likely she'd win against Voegele and all the other 'outside' top 60 players, she is currently losing to, maybe not a bad trade-off? She isn't winning against 'top players' anyway, so the counter argument isn't really valid.
Well yes, but this is kind of debateable. She'd have to be winning over 50% of return games at least for this to be effective imo. I tend to think the serve is only part of the problem as opposed to the entire problem anyway.

The reason for my reservations also is if it does work and she becomes consistent against lower ranked players again (which is not guaranteed), then the next step is challenging the top players. To do that she will then have to blow up that serve again, which could result in going round in circles.
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post #2073 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 02:01 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Okay, good draw. No contenders to win in her section, but Caro will lose round 1 if she plays like her last 2 tournaments and CSN plays her normal game

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post #2074 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 02:50 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Okay, good draw. No contenders to win in her section, but Caro will lose round 1 if she plays like her last 2 tournaments and CSN plays her normal game
No, it's not a good draw. I'd say her 1st round opponent Suarez Navarro is arguably better on red clay and her likely potential 2nd round opponent Vinci is certainly better than Caro on red clay.

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post #2075 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 02:58 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

The bottom half has FO winner Li, FO finalists Errani, Stosur, Madrid winner Kvitova, Jankovic, who's playing well.
This half is totally wide open if Sharapova isnt healthy or off form.
This is as soft a quarter as Caroline will see here, Rome or Madrid, probably Paris too.
If she is going to become an FO contender one day, you have to beat these players. There are much tougher players than in this quarter

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post #2076 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 03:02 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by TennisFan66 View Post
You are making the assumption, she will get through the lower ranked players

Not saying it is, but given more spin and less risk on the 1st serve would make it more likely she'd win against Voegele and all the other 'outside' top 60 players, she is currently losing to, maybe not a bad trade-off? She isn't winning against 'top players' anyway, so the counter argument isn't really valid.
Caro's % of 1st serves in during her losses this year:

Voegele: 69%
Muguruza: 55%
Sharapova: 66%
Wang: 81%
Kvitova: 80%
Aga: 64%
Kuznetsova (Oz Open): 65%
Kuznetsova (Sydney): 60%
Pervak: 70%

I'd say Caro's 1st serve % is at least ok except for the match except for the match against Muguruza and maybe the Sydney match against Kuznetsova.

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post #2077 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 03:17 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

I'm not a fan of tournaments like Stuttgart and Brisbane (historically Sydney) as you can get stuck with a top 15 player in the 1st or 2nd round. At a grand slam if you're ranked inside the top 16 such a matchup can't happen until at least the 4th round.

You don't tend to get the opportunity to play yourself into the tournament.

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Last edited by Protoss; Apr 20th, 2013 at 04:04 PM. Reason: corrected tournament
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post #2078 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 03:19 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Caroline lost round 3 at the last 2 French Opens. Getting a soft round or 2 doesnt help her.
This tournament is like a FO (without Serena or Vika), but starting at round 3

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post #2079 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 03:39 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by Protoss View Post
Caro's % of 1st serves in during her losses this year:

Voegele: 69%
Muguruza: 55%
Sharapova: 66%
Wang: 81%
Kvitova: 80%
Aga: 64%
Kuznetsova (Oz Open): 65%
Kuznetsova (Sydney): 60%
Pervak: 70%

I'd say Caro's 1st serve % is at least ok except for the match except for the match against Muguruza and maybe the Sydney match against Kuznetsova.
Quite, Caro's first serve % is actually 10th on tour for 2013 (3rd in terms of top 10 players). The % isn't the problem. Of course the argument has been put forward that she could go for 80+% doing Errani like serves, whether this would be effective is very much up for debate. Imo Caro would struggle to defend behind that sort of serve in her current form.

As for the Stuttgart draw I think it was as good as it could have been. Kerber was the best of the top 4 seeds to get in her quarter imo. It's not like the draw was loaded with walkover draws.
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post #2080 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 03:58 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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I'm not a fan of tournaments like Stuttgart and Sydney as you can get stuck with a top 15 player in the 1st or 2nd round. At a grand slam if you're ranked inside the top 16 such a matchup can't happen until at least the 4th round.

You don't tend to get the opportunity to play yourself into the tournament.
This is the problem when you try and encourage the top players to play identical schedules. Premiers like these are the equivalent of ATP 500s, but in ATP you get a widespread field. The WTA premiers are either on weeks where none of the top players want to play, or weeks nearly all of them want to play. It means you get 28, 30 women draws where the entire entry list is ranked inside the top 40.

The solution is to have weeks with multiple premiers in them, but seemingly the WTA just want to cram the top players into the same events week after week.
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post #2081 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 04:37 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

They want to get most of the top players in the same tournaments. Thats why they limit the top 10 from playing a lot of Intls.
Majors, mandatories premier 5's. Thats 13 events, add YEC its 14.
Most players are only playing about 20 total in a year

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post #2082 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 05:43 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Interesting draw, Caro vs Carla and a possible R2 against Vinci. Certainly two players who know how to play on clay. I hope the Woz we all enjoy, shows up.


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post #2083 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 05:50 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

What is the consensus on does the players playing Fed Cup help them or hinder them? The majority of the ties are on clay. Pretty much the rest of Caro's quarter is playing Fed Cup this weekend.
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post #2084 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 05:51 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

I think it was bruce goose who a couple of pages ago asked wheteher Caro could draw one of the top 4 seeds in the QF. I, on the other hand, have been much more worried she would draw someone outside top 100 in R1 (a qualifier)! She's so inconsistent these days. A QF against anyone would be an extra bonus.

Two or three years ago I often used to check tennisresults live at ZDF's teletext as the last thing before I went to bed when Caro was playing in Australia or Asia, and when the time difference made it impossible to follow the match online. Sometimes the livescore showed that she had lost the first set, but I always went to bed confindent she would win in three. She mostly did! But there's not so much to be confident about these days when we never know if she'll go to the 2nd round even if it's a slam. But I still think she'll be able to be back at her former level. GL in Stuttgart!
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post #2085 of 5196 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2013, 05:53 PM
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

And she plays well in spurts. Miami 2012, beating Serena, losing 46 in the 3rd to Sharapova.. That could win hardcourt majors. Even this year, Dubai & IW were mostly fine, except for the IW final.
She still can play high level tennis, but cant do it consistently anymore

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