Here's the YEC race standings from #5 to 15. I think the YEC race top 4 (Vika, Serena, Sharapova, and Aga) are too consistent for Caro to chase down even in the event that she got her act together. There are only a couple of players outside of the top 15 that I think could have a shot at the YEC (Stosur and Venus notably).
5 NA LI CHN 2,130.00 7
6 SARA ERRANI ITA 1,830.00 9
7 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI DEN 1,667.00 9
8 SLOANE STEPHENS USA 1,367.00 8
9 ANGELIQUE KERBER GER 1,332.00 8
10 PETRA KVITOVA CZE 1,306.00 8
11 MARIA KIRILENKO RUS 1,281.00 7
12 JELENA JANKOVIC SRB 1,276.00 7
13 MONA BARTHEL GER 1,076.00 8
14 SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA RUS 946.00 7
15 ROBERTA VINCI ITA 941.00 8
Who do you think will do a lot better than Caro on clay and who do you think will do a lot better than Caro on grass?
I expect Li to do better on clay. Grasscourts is hard to say. She's made a few Wimbledon QF but overall she should have done (even) better on them. We will see. But I think she'll be a top four or five qualifier anyway for the YEC.
Errani - clay.
Sloane Stephens - Hard to say since there's not much of a history there yet. But she's in a bit of a slump currently, so perhaps Caro will be able to keep the status quo or even put a bit of distance between herself and Sloane the next few months. Even so, a surprise, either positive or negative is far from impossible when it comes to SS.
Kerber - Is having problems following up a sensational 2012 with something similar. She could be one of Caro's main rivals for a YEC spot. At her best she's probably a bit better on both surfaces (especially grass) than the current Caro. When both are at their best it's close although I'd still give a slight edge to Kerber (and a slight edge to Caro on hardcourt).
Kvitova - Well, you know.
She can win anything but also lose in the first round of four or five events in a row. She's perhaps the most unpredictable player since Hana Mandlikova.
Kirilenko - About even with Caro I'd say. Caro probably a bit better. Kudos to her for improving so much the last couple of years, but I think she could get close, but ultimately won't make the YEC. But you never know. One or two great runs at a big event where she has a good draw and she's in with a shot.
Jankovic - All will depend on if she's really back to (or close) to her best or if her recent run of good results is just a last hurrah. If it's the first she's better on clay than Caro by a considerable margin. Caro is perhaps better on grass, but not by much.
Barthel - Not consistent enough to make the YEC in my opinion, at least not yet.
Kuznetsova - Same story as with Jankovic I suppose. At her best better than Caro on clay while Caro is a bit better on grass.
Vinci - I don't think she's a big contender for the YEC. With her game she could have a decent run at Wimbledon, but I don't think it will matter much in terms of the YEC.
Stosur - One of Caro's main rivals for a YEC spot. MUCH better than Caro on clay of course. Caro is better on grass though.