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Who will end up as the YE #1 of 2016?

Will Serena be YE #1 2016?

201K views 2K replies 326 participants last post by  TennisPhan 
#1 · (Edited)
DANGER!!!! Aga could dethrone Serena after RG 2016!



From Doha until before the start of RG:
2. Radwanska defends 516 pts.
3. Kerber defends 1196 pts.
1. Serena defends 1885 pts.
Serena has a 3445 pts lead over Aga and 4035 over Kerber right now.

If we substract what they need to defend from last year it looks like this:
Serena: 9245 becomes 7360
Aga: 5700 becomes 5184
Kerber: 5210 becomes 4014

Now Serena only leads 2176 over Aga and 3346 over Kerber.

..and here comes the scary part for Serena. Before the start of RG:
2. Aga can gain 5034 pts.
3. Kerber can gain 4824 pts.
1. Serena can gain 2015 pts.

After adding what they can gain before RG:
1. Aga: 5184 becomes 10218
2. Serena: 7360 becomes 9375
3. Kerber: 4014 becomes 8839

..and then this is what they defend at RG:
Serena: 2000 pts.
Aga: 10 pts.
Kerber: 130 pts.

I'd say danger is back! Looks like Aga is becoming #1 after RG !

_____________________________________________________________________
Original post starts here
Serena's 2015 is over so let's focus on her 2016! :grin2:

We all know I'm obsessed with Serena breaking Graf's weeks at No. 1 records (consecutive and overall), so it would be nice to not have to read comments like "who cares about #1, it's all about the slams" YES WE KNOW... GIVE IT A REST! THIS IS ABOUT WEEKS @#1 TTHREAD, GO TALK ABOUT SLAMS IN OTHER THREADS... BACK TO TOPIC:

These records can be broken in 2016
Consecutive weeks at No. 1:
Serena has 138 weeks
- breaks Navratilova (156) on 15 February 2016
- breaks Graf on (186) on 12 September 2016

These records can be broken in 2017
Weeks at No .1 total:
Serena has 256 weeks
- breaks Navratilova (332) on 20 February 2017
- Breaks Graf (377) on 01 January 2018

For now Serena is not in danger of losing the #1 spot, because she has a huge points lead over the rest and none of the other top women are consistent enough to take over her spot. However, she has A LOT of points to defend in 2016 (6780 pts at slams) and it seems that she has started declining slowly..

Right now Serena 11286 has a 4705 pt lead over the #2 Halep 6580. Serena skipping Beijing and YEC means she will lose 1555 pts, which means the lead is 3150.



Halep just lost in Wuhan R16 & Beijing R64 and she's defending 890 pts at the YEC. Best case scenario is Halep winning YEC undefeated (which is not impossible) making Serena's lead only 2540.

It doesn't look like anybody will prevent Serena from breaking Graf's records :worship:

 
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#3 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

If she flops at more than 1 Slam next year and Halep or some other does great, then is possible.
But Halep also defends a lot during spring and Maria already in january.

I can't see her losing number 1 ranking until after Wimbledon...
 
#5 · (Edited)
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

If she flops at more than 1 Slam next year and Halep or some other does great, then is possible.
But Halep also defends a lot during spring and Maria already in january.

I can't see her losing number 1 ranking until after Wimbledon...
But virtually nothing during clay and grass season.

I expect Halep to do better next year on clay and grass, her incredible hard court form this year will be tough to replicate though. One will compensate for the other.

Tough to predict what Serena will do next year but looks like she's suffering from that Vinci loss which could have long lasting effects, not sure she will recover fully and will surely be a step slow at her age...
 
#7 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

I think she won't be adding much points from other tournaments next year. Not playing YEC is actually quite a big deal considering the amount of points that would be always there in her rankings. Whether she could hold No.1 for the whole year simply depends on how she performs at slams. Seems to be BS but she really has to focus at the slams. Can't see her winning 3 in a row again (don't bash me and feel free to prove me wrong Serena) so she should find a way to win AO first so the pressure at RG would be less.

And as rankings are always a relative thing, it also depends on other players. The only "seem to be healthy" and consistent player would be Halep. However she really has to play as consistent as this year outside slams and perform well at RG+Wimby and like win a slam. Tough one but not impossible. Next year's an even year so maybe Maria could snatch one slam? :lol: Serena has to hope that the slams that she failed to win are won by different players (if she only won 1-2)

It's hard to say. Sometimes you really don't know what happens. Serena might suddenly play at slams like 2014 and you'd be :spit: considering she might not be able to play as good as she did outside slams. The toughest should be right after Wimbledon I guess. For me, I'd guess she could hold that No.1 position for the whole year if she could win either AO or RG (or both). [Of course Maria and Simona is also defending a lot points in the first half of the year.]
 
#9 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Sharapova or Halep could if one of them wins the AO/FO and is solid week in/week out for the first half of the year. No one's taking it from her until Wimbledon at the earliest, that's for sure.
 
#14 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Sharapova or Halep could if one of them wins the AO/FO and is solid week in/week out for the first half of the year. No one's taking it from her until Wimbledon at the earliest, that's for sure.
It's amazing that Sharapova is #3. #1 is way too far off for her; she would have to start winning tournaments left and right, and Serena would need to flop. Even then, when could she get it, end of next year? It's difficult with 1 match since Wimbledon.
 
#11 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Serena's 2015 is over so let's focus on her 2016! :grin2:

We all know I'm obsessed with Serena breaking Graf's weeks at No. 1 records (consecutive and overall), so it would be nice to not have to read comments like "who cares about #1, it's all about the slams" YES WE KNOW... GIVE IT A REST! THIS IS ABOUT WEEKS @#1 TTHREAD, GO TALK ABOUT SLAMS IN OTHER THREADS... BACK TO TOPIC:

These records can be broken in 2016
Consecutive weeks at No. 1:
Serena has 138 weeks
- breaks Navratilova (156) on 15 February 2016
- breaks Graf on (186) on 12 September 2016

These records can be broken in 2017
Weeks at No .1 total:
Serena has 256 weeks
- breaks Navratilova (332) on 20 February 2017
- Breaks Graf (377) on 01 January 2018

For now Serena is not in danger of losing the #1 spot, because she has a huge points lead over the rest and none of the other top women are consistent enough to take over her spot. However, she has A LOT of points to defend in 2016 (6780 pts at slams) and it seems that she has started declining slowly..
I wouldn't say that someone who won 3/4 slams in the year is showing any signs of decline personally. But although Serena has an awful lot of points to defend given the weakness and/or inconsistency of the rest of the tour at the moment I would say she has a very good chance of defending many of them. Also, after missing the chance to equal Steffi's record at the US I think she will be super-motivated to do it next year.
 
#12 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Serena just passed Chrissie in total weeks with 261.
 
This post has been deleted
#13 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

If Serena doesn't play any tournaments at all, she'll still have 7945 pts by Feb 15 2016.

Can anybody overtake her before that?
Halep with decent showings @ YEC, [whatever AO warmup she plays], and AO, yes. She doesn't even need to win all three.

If Halep flops at YEC, Serena's #1 is most likely safe until Miami. Halep can't gain anything at P5 Doha or IW next year since she's defending champ.
 
#20 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Of course. No one can challenge her at this point, unlike 2012 and 2013 where she had great competition from players against who she lost 3 matches in 20 meetings. That was the strongest era!
 
#29 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Well, Halep :wavey:
Guess Serena is safe until RG at least :haha:

It seems that Sharapova remains the biggest threat to Serena's #1 spot, because she is the most consistent top player AFTER Serena. Maybe Muguruza can change this fact in 2016.

1 vote for Muguruza? :spit:
 
#31 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

She'll probably win IW this year and Miami, thus she's going to build an even bigger lead next year.

I also don't see anyone stopping her, think this year was a rollercoaster and she should be relaxed on court again.
 
#33 · (Edited)
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

So now what?!? Lol
New year, new chance to dominate, but this time she's defending 6780 pts at slams earned in 2015. Last year she was defending only 2440 pts at slams. Almost 3x more..

Total earned pts in 2014: 8487 pts
Total earned pts in 2015: 9945 pts

It's going to be tougher this year, but luckily she will start 2016 with a 4000 pts lead over #2 Hypelep.

She can earn pts at IW (SF loss), Mardid (SF loss), Rome (R16 loss), Bastad (R16 loss), Toronto (SF loss), UO (SF loss), (Beijing+YEC skipped). Funny, I noticed a pattern, 4 SF losses in big tourneys this year.. Semifailrena? :eek:

She could enter Brisbane/Sydney and later Eastbourne for extra pts if she cares about breaking Nav & Graf #1 records.
______________________________________________________
Biggest threat to Serena's #1 ranking in the first half of 2016 is:

#2 Halep defending: defending least at slams and is closest to Serena's ranking
Total until after WM 3725 pts (510 pts at AO+RG+WM) :eek: :spit: :spit: :spit: :spit
Serena leads 3885 pts

#3 Muguruza defending: defending least total pts
Total until after WM 2657 pts (1970pts at AO+RG+WM)
Serena leads 4745 pts

#4 Sharapova defending: defending most total and most at slams
Total until after WM 4321 pts (2320pts at AO+RG+WM)
Serena leads 4934 pts

Realistically, other than these 3, nobody has a chance to dethrone Serena in 2016, unless they win CYGS and some.. which is not happening :lol:
 
#34 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Unless Serena massively flops at slams like in 2014, she should be fine. The lead will not remain as impressive as it is now unless Serena plays some tourneys after the USO (at least the YEC).
 
#35 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

A 3885 points lead might seem pretty unassailable but that could change in a flash.

Let's just say (just humour me here if you're not a believer :) ) that Serena only makes the QF of the Oz Open and Simona wins the whole thing. Straightaway that would be 3140 points of that 3885 points lead wiped out. That would make things interesting.
 
#46 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

A 3885 points lead might seem pretty unassailable but that could change in a flash.

Let's just say (just humour me here if you're not a believer :) ) that Serena only makes the QF of the Oz Open and Simona wins the whole thing. Straightaway that would be 3140 points of that 3885 points lead wiped out. That would make things interesting.
Very unlikely.
 
#40 ·
Re: Will Serena hold on to No. 1 in 2016?

Anywho, I have to return some video tapes...
Are you stopping by the soda fountain to have a malted with the gang?

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