How long will Clijsters hold the #1 ranking, and who will be #1 in 2004?? - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:53 AM Thread Starter
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How long will Clijsters hold the #1 ranking, and who will be #1 in 2004??

I think Clijsters will hold the #1 ranking for the rest of the year. the only person who can challenge her is Henin and she would have to go on quite a tear to accomplish this. SO I think Kim has is wrapped up for 2003. 2004 is where it heats up though. For the first three months Clijsters has about 1800 points to defend in 6 tournaments, Henin has about 1100 to defend in 5 tournaments, Serena also has about 1800 to defend with three tourneys, and Venus has almost 1100 to defend in 3 tournaments. This is where I think Henin can seriously make her move to get the #1. It will be tough for Clijsters to defend 6 tournaments. Serena will probably successfully defend all of her points, since she only has 3 tourneys and usually plays Scottsdale, which she didn't play this year. Venus can make up alot of ground in this period on Clijsters and Serena. She dropped 3 tourneys that she was defending champion at during this time in 2003. So she will stand to make up some serious points here.

So at the end of March 2004 I expect the rankings to look like:

1. Henin
2. Serena
3. Clijsters
4. Venus

The next period is from April through the end of Wimbledon. Clijsters has almost 2000 points in this span, Serena has almost 2100, Henin has a whopping 2500 to defend, and Venus has only 1125. This period is sort of tricky because there are 2 Grand Slams, so I'll predict for both after the French and after Wimbledon. I think after the clay season and the FO, it could be a real Venus/Serena battle for #1 with Henin and Clijsters not that far behind. Venus has only about 300 points to defend for the clay season so a healthy Venus could add by leaps and bounds and be #1. Serena only has about 1000 points to defend on the clay so she will stand to gain a few points. Clijsters and Henin will struggle to repeat their stellar efforts on clay in 2003 in 2004, so I expect them to lose a few hundred points apiece. After the French, I think the rankings will be:

#1 Venus (tough call to pick her over Serena, but she has few points to defend in the first half of the year)
#2 Serena
#3 Clijsters
#4 Henin


after French to Wimbledon Serena has about 1100 to defend, Venus about 800, Henin about 500, and Clijsters about 650. Venus and Serena will most likely meet in this final again so their points should be okay. Henin will probably gain about 150 pts since at Wimby 2003 she didn't get many quality points. Clijsters should stay the same or losr a small # of points. I think Henin will be close enough to pass Kim here though, and will become #3.

The winner of Wimbledon between the sisters I think will be or stay #1, I think Serena will win so I think the rankings will be:

1. Serena
2. Venus
3. Henin
4. Clijsters


I would like to hear everyone's projections who would like to share them. All I ask is that the projections be realistic. No BS like a return to #1 by Martina Hingis.
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post #2 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:59 AM
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The vast majority of how everything will shake out is determined by the US and Australian Opens. We can only guess at those. Kim beating Justine in a USO Final would be about a 800-900 point swing from Justine beating Kim.

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post #3 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 05:09 AM
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I think Venus Williams will be #1 again sometime next year.

Hell I am still hoping that she can regain the #1 spot THIS year.

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post #4 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 06:05 AM
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Venus has a lot of Slam points to defend in 2004 already... RU/R4/RU. So only on clay do I see her making a move, and honestly I don't see her passing both Belgians on the dirt...maybe 1 but not both.
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post #5 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 08:42 AM
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I think Kim, Justine and Serena will be No.1 next year, I predict quite a bit of changing around and fighting between them. End of year rankings will favor Kim and Justine I think cos they play more tournaments. I think Justine will stay the longest at the top during next year. I do not see Venus getting to No.1 unless she really puts more effort in.

Zvonareva will be top 10 next year too as will petrova I think.

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post #6 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 08:56 AM
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Knizzle do you think Justine will do that badly next year in the clay season? May be she won't defend one of her Tier I's, but she still has Rome as a back up.
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post #7 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Knizzle
I think Clijsters will hold the #1 ranking for the rest of the year. the only person who can challenge her is Henin and she would have to go on quite a tear to accomplish this. SO I think Kim has this wrapped up for 2003. 2004 is where it heats up though...
Nope, Justine and Kim are neck and neck on the year race. Kim has played 13 tr so far this year and Justine, 12. That may account for the 239 point variance in Kim's favor. You can be sure they both will play at least 17 tr by yearend. To grab the #1, Justine will just have to do slightly better than her compatriot by then.
Code:
Porsche Race, 8/04/2003	pts	tr

1 KIM CLIJSTERS  	4373	13 
2 JUSTINE HENIN-H	4134	12
 
3 SERENA WILLIAMS  	3916 	7 
4 VENUS WILLIAMS  	2211	6

** TP for Topaz or TennisPower **

"Playing aggressive tennis ... that's always the way to go, if you ask me." - Venus Williams, May/2002
"Some shots I will hit hard but not every ball. I'm not just using my power." - Serena Williams, Oct/2002

Last edited by TennisPower; Aug 5th, 2003 at 04:27 PM.
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post #8 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 03:58 PM
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I don't think that Kim will stay slamless for another year. She may well defend the topspot succesfully next year if she wins a slam and plays consistent.
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post #9 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:02 PM
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Actually, people talk like Kimmie is going to be slamless for the rest of her career. . . .LOL. I SERIOUSLY think she is going to win the USOpen.

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post #10 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:03 PM
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All depends on how long Serena´s out....´cause last year she didn´t play that much after the Open. So if she can add some tournaments here and there I think she still can end the year as no.1. Remember Kim´s defending many points after the summer. About next year, I think Venus can make a hell of a run during the clay-season next year! Remember she only played Warsaw and 4th round at the French! She didn´t play Amelia, Berlin nor Rome!! Damn, those are some points to win next year!!
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post #11 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bandabou
All depends on how long Serena´s out....´cause last year she didn´t play that much after the Open. So if she can add some tournaments here and there I think she still can end the year as no.1. Remember Kim´s defending many points after the summer. About next year, I think Venus can make a hell of a run during the clay-season next year! Remember she only played Warsaw and 4th round at the French! She didn´t play Amelia, Berlin nor Rome!! Damn, those are some points to win next year!!
Highly unlikely. Serena has 1000 points coming up that she will defend none of. By the time US Open is over, Serena will be far far back in the race. Barring a miracle (Kim and Justine both losing in the first 3 rounds of the US Open) this is a 2 horse race now.

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post #12 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:09 PM
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Kim will be no 1. Justine doesn't do very well indoors (Linz=exception ), wheras it is one of Kim's favorite surfaces I think. If Serena comes back though, she should be no 1. But it depends on how much she wants it so......

1. Kim
2. Justine
3. Serena
4. Venus


But Next Year:
1. Serena
2. Justine
3. Venus
4. Kim
5. Mauresmo
6. Sharapova

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post #13 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:16 PM
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hmmm, you never know how Justine will play indoors and on the HC for the rest of the year
She 'll certainley close the gap with Kim but if she will become the number one THIS year

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post #14 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:39 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by per4ever
Knizzle do you think Justine will do that badly next year in the clay season? May be she won't defend one of her Tier I's, but she still has Rome as a back up.
It's not that she will do that badly, but I expect a resurgence in the Williams at the French Open, Serena will want to win badly, and if Henin doesn't make it past the semifinal, she will lose 650-700 points. Also the Williams sisters were largely absent from the European clay season, so they will shake things up. We didn't expect Serena to lose that many points in the clay season this year either did we??
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post #15 of 34 (permalink) Old Aug 5th, 2003, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disposablehero
Highly unlikely. Serena has 1000 points coming up that she will defend none of. By the time US Open is over, Serena will be far far back in the race. Barring a miracle (Kim and Justine both losing in the first 3 rounds of the US Open) this is a 2 horse race now.
Oh like that.... yeah those 1000 points are too much to make up. Then I think it will be Kim for year end no.1. Justine´s not that good on hardcourts or indoors.
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