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post #1 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 12:48 AM Thread Starter
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Ok look at this scenario

In all the posts that were mentioning Kim will be #2 seed at RG, we all fail to realize that the semis will mean more than likely we will all lose cos Justine and kim will be in the same half and venus and serena will be in the same half....therefore for everyone to be happy, we all have to be routing for venus to stay number two.

With Kim at number 2:

semis- Serena vs. Venus; Kim vs. Justine.

Venus at number 2:

semis-Serena/Kim; Justine vs. Venus.

The funny thing is that Justine to me is the favorite to win cos venus is injured and kim and serena were defeated by her recently. I think who ever wins between the Justine and Venus match has the better chance to be the champion eventhough I personally want Serena to defend her title.

In scenario #1 Justine has a 95% chance of being the winner.

In scenario number two, she has 80% chance of being the champion. These are based on recent results of course.

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post #2 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 12:54 AM
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not neccesarily
Venus could still be on the other half
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post #3 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 01:02 AM
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I think it unlikely that Kim will be seeded number 2 at RG. I've been saying this all along. Things really need to fall her way to be number 2.

Second, Serena is the clear favorite to defend her title. She's had ... what 2 lossses in a gagillion matches? Plus she is the clear number one. You seem to have just pulled your percentages out of a hat. Is there any mathematical principle at work in arriving at those percentages?

Third, there is no guarantee that even if Kim is number 2 that Justine will be in her half and Venus in Serena's half. And if Venus is number two, Kim isn't necessarily going to be in Serena's half nor Justine's in Venus's half.
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post #4 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 03:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maccardel
In all the posts that were mentioning Kim will be #2 seed at RG, we all fail to realize that the semis will mean more than likely we will all lose cos Justine and kim will be in the same half and venus and serena will be in the same half....therefore for everyone to be happy, we all have to be routing for venus to stay number two.

With Kim at number 2:

semis- Serena vs. Venus; Kim vs. Justine.

Venus at number 2:

semis-Serena/Kim; Justine vs. Venus.

The funny thing is that Justine to me is the favorite to win cos venus is injured and kim and serena were defeated by her recently. I think who ever wins between the Justine and Venus match has the better chance to be the champion eventhough I personally want Serena to defend her title.

In scenario #1 Justine has a 95% chance of being the winner.

In scenario number two, she has 80% chance of being the champion. These are based on recent results of course.
Justine an 80% chance of being the champion? Are you insane? Incidentally, your assumptions on the draw are totally incorrect.

You have to answer for Santino, Carlo.
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post #5 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 03:41 AM
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let's see....2 out of the 3 most recent matches on clay vs. Serena, Justine won....in the last 3 matches on clay versus Kim, Justine has won 2...Her only win against Venus came on....Clay...let's see where were headed with this one..... hmmm JUSTINE'S GONNA WIN YOU STUPID FUCKING HATERS! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


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post #6 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 03:44 AM
 
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Besides the fact that it's only one possibility, why would we all lose from Serena-Venus and Kim-Justine semis? That would lead to a Belgian-Williams final which I would think would make many people happy and probably be a fantastic match. I for one would love to see those semis!
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post #7 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 03:49 AM
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I would like final without Williamses as well without Belgians. Even Mauresmo-Capriati final would do just fine..

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post #8 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 04:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maccardel
In all the posts that were mentioning Kim will be #2 seed at RG, we all fail to realize that the semis will mean more than likely we will all lose cos Justine and kim will be in the same half and venus and serena will be in the same half....therefore for everyone to be happy, we all have to be routing for venus to stay number two.

With Kim at number 2:

semis- Serena vs. Venus; Kim vs. Justine.

Venus at number 2:

semis-Serena/Kim; Justine vs. Venus.

The funny thing is that Justine to me is the favorite to win cos venus is injured and kim and serena were defeated by her recently. I think who ever wins between the Justine and Venus match has the better chance to be the champion eventhough I personally want Serena to defend her title.

In scenario #1 Justine has a 95% chance of being the winner.

In scenario number two, she has 80% chance of being the champion. These are based on recent results of course.
Lets see Henin has never beaten either Kim, Serena or Venus in a slam... so i give her 0% by now..

Another stat Henin has never won a slam.... so i give her 0% by now...

So her numbers against the best players at slams are more improbable than in favor of her right now.

Gabriela Sabatini 2006 HOF
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FWTT Hard 111(111 + ny)Carpet 104(104 + ny)Clay 107(107 + 4) Grass 100(100 ny)
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post #9 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 04:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petosp
Lets see Henin has never beaten either Kim, Serena or Venus in a slam... so i give her 0% by now..

Another stat Henin has never won a slam.... so i give her 0% by now...

So her numbers against the best players at slams are more improbable than in favor of her right now.

hmmm, justine's never played either sister in the french open and when justine lost to kim at a clay slam was 2 years ago since then justine has defeated kim twice on clay. it's funny how justine can have a better h2h on clay against serena and kim and 1-1 against venus and yet people don't give her a chance at winning. i mean you don't have to say she's going to win but saying she has no chance at winning is just denying the facts and being an idiot.

and since when did it mean that if a person did well in one slam mean they're going to do just as well on another. justine is a clay court specialist [and very good on grass as well] the only time she's played serena at a gs was at the usopen in 2001 and venus in wimbledon twice and the ausopen [where she made her personal best of a semi]. none of these are clay, btw.
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post #10 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 04:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shap_half
hmmm, justine's never played either sister in the french open and when justine lost to kim at a clay slam was 2 years ago since then justine has defeated kim twice on clay. it's funny how justine can have a better h2h on clay against serena and kim and 1-1 against venus and yet people don't give her a chance at winning. i mean you don't have to say she's going to win but saying she has no chance at winning is just denying the facts and being an idiot.

and since when did it mean that if a person did well in one slam mean they're going to do just as well on another. justine is a clay court specialist [and very good on grass as well] the only time she's played serena at a gs was at the usopen in 2001 and venus in wimbledon twice and the ausopen [where she made her personal best of a semi]. none of these are clay, btw.
I did not say she had 0% percent of chance of winning lol. I was making the statement that her numbers are 0 (wins)-something in both categories i mentioned.
Both Kim and Henin most probable slam and matches to win against the Williams sisters are on clay, and RG is a pretty good place for both Kim and Henin. But i may say giving her plus 80 percent of chances of winning is just ridiculous based on a player who has never won a slam event, has has never beaten the 3 other players ahead of her at slam events.

Gabriela Sabatini 2006 HOF
18 Grand Slam SFs, Won 27 titles, 1 GS Sin, 1 GS in Dubs,2 Masters
Sabatini vs Martinez ?
Seasons in the top ten: Sabatini 10 Conchita 9
Straight Seasons in the top ten: Sabatini 10 Conchita 6
Seasons in the top 5: Sabatini 6 Conchita 5
Straight seasons in the top 5: Sabatini 6 Conchita 4
Tier II and above titles
Sabatini 24 Martinez 17
Record at the Masters
Sabatini has 2 titles 2 Runner up and 3 SF
Martinez has 0 titles, 0 RU, and 0 Sf
Record against the best players
Sabatini 40% Martinez 21%
Head to Head
Sabatini leads 9-6 over Martinez
FWTT Hard 111(111 + ny)Carpet 104(104 + ny)Clay 107(107 + 4) Grass 100(100 ny)
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post #11 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 05:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petosp
Lets see Henin has never beaten either Kim, Serena or Venus in a slam... so i give her 0% by now..

Another stat Henin has never won a slam.... so i give her 0% by now...

So her numbers against the best players at slams are more improbable than in favor of her right now.

let me see if I understand.

0% means no chance.

so, if a player hasn't beaten other certain player in a Grand Slam, her chances of doing that in a future GS are 0

but Serena, Venus, Lindsay, they all at some point faced a player they haven't beaten before in a Grand Slam.

Let's say, Serena draws a player she has never played before in a GS.

So, Serena has 0% chances of beating her, and the other player has 0% chance of beating Serena (she has never beaten Serena either), so I guess it would be a tie.

Also, she gets 0% chances because she hasn't won a Grand Slam, so, only players who have won a Grand Slam have chances of winning one

so how do players get their first Grand Slam?
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post #12 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 05:34 AM
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imho it wouldn't hurt me a bit if Venus faced Serena in semi's instead of Justine. Imho Justine is more the threat on red clay then Serena is.

Also what if the draw has Venus, Serena and Kim on the same side? Or Venus, Serena and Justine? I think whoever is not on the side of the Williams and a Belgian is in the best position to win RG!

Or what if Venus and Serena are on opposite sides of the draw and Henin and Clijsters are on the same side? So many options to think about..

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post #13 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 05:37 AM
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I don't think 3 of top 4 seeds can be on the same side of the draw. 1 and 2 are placed on sep sides....as are 3 and 4 ....so its 1 vs 3/4 and 2 vs 4/3
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post #14 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 05:38 AM
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To think let alone state that Justine Henin has no chance to win Roland Garros is ludicrus. I personally think she has a better chance than Kim or even Venus at the moment. With Venus though we never know what were going to get. I sure am not going to underestimate her though. nor Justine.

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post #15 of 71 (permalink) Old May 12th, 2003, 05:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawn Marie
Or what if Venus and Serena are on opposite sides of the draw and Henin and Clijsters are on the same side? So many options to think about..
if Serena and Venus are in opposite side, Kim and Justine will be in opposite sides as well.

If Kim is # 2, then the two posibilities for the semis are:

1)

Williams - Williams
Belgian - Belgian

2)

Williams - Belgian
Belgian - Williams

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