Originally Posted by Brian Stewart
I don't have the new rankings estimates for Monday, or the 17th tournament scores handy, but here's an approximation:
#4- Since Lindsay isn't playing, between Justine and Amelie. Justine has a lead of over 800 points before Rome taken off. Loses 301 points, with an 18th tourney of 2. Momo has to win Rome, beating Serena and Kim. Might be possible without facing Kim (don't have draw handy). I think she's seeded to play Jen in the quarters. Might be possible by beating Jen in quarters, Serena in semis, then Chanda in finals, pending QP of other matches, but best bet is beating top 2.
Brian, after Berlin Justine has 3,917 points, Amelie has 3,090, that is 827 points.
with Rome points off:
Justine: 3,917 - 301 + 2 = 3,618
Amelie: 3,090 - 99 = 2,991
so Amelie will need to make 628 points to surpass Justine, there is no way she can do that in a tier 1. She can get 275 points for winning the tournament, so she needs 353 quality points
I haven't checked the draws to see who she could face but if she beats
Serena + Kim + Capriati + Chanda + Hantuchova
100 + 75 + 43 + 43 +43 = 304
not only it would be virtually impossible to beat all those players in a row, she wouldn't even face those players and even if she did it wouldn't be enough.