Justine's ranking - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 04:21 PM Thread Starter
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Justine's ranking

You can read too much into two weeks. But it seems to me that the last two weeks sum up why Justine is ranked #4, rather than higher, or for that matter, lower. And a good idea of where her raking is headed.

1) She 'can't' beat the players ranked above her.

Liftetime H2H vs those players?

2-7 vs Clijsters
1-7 vs Venus
2-4 vs Serena

A combined 5-18. And ALL of these matches took place in the last 2 years and 1 month. This isn't ancient history. Still, she beats Kim and Serena once every 3 or 4 matches. She can't seem to solve Venus at all. Of course Justine beat Venus the first time they played. But seven straight losses since then spells 'can't beat at all'. In the last 12 months, Justine has 18 losses. 10 of those losses were inflicted by Serena, Venus or Kim.

2) She's a 'clay court specialist'

Again we need those single quotes. Look her her five victories over the current top three. Four victories on clay, one on grass.

3) She still drops matches to non-elite competition. Kapros, Daniilidou, Irvin, Casanova, Dementieva.

ONE loss like that in a year is expected, even two.
FIVE is a lack of consistency, or a failure of focus.

Code:
2003 Hamburg               QF L DOKIC      6-7 6-7   
2003 Rome                  FR L S.WILLIAMS 6-7 4-6   
2003 Roland Garros        128 L KAPROS     6-4 1-6 0-6
2003 's-Hertogenbosch      SF L DANIILIDOU 6-4 6-7 3-6
2003 Wimbledon             SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 2-6   
2003 Stanford              32 L IRVIN      3-6 6-4 1-6
2003 Canadian Open         QF L CAPRIATI   6-4 0-6 2-6   
2003 New Haven             16 L MYSKINA    5-7 2-6
2003 U.S. Open             16 L HANTUCHOVA 1-6 6-3 6-7
2003 Leipzig               SF L S.WILLIAMS 4-6 2-6   
2003 Stuttgart             16 L CASANOVA   5-7 6-4 4-6
2003 Zurich                SF L DAVENPORT  6-7 6-7   
2003 Tour Championships    QF L CLIJSTERS  2-6 1-6   
2003 Sydney                SF L CLIJSTERS  2-6 3-6   
2003 Australian Open       SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 3-6   
2003 Antwerp               SF L CLIJSTERS  2-6 6-7  
2003 Miami                 QF L RUBIN      3-6 2-6
2003 Amelia Island         SF L Dementieva 6-1 6-0
Sure she loses to the 'Lesser Elite' (Myskina, Hantuchova, Dokic, Rubin, Seles) occasionally[/color], but so does everybody else.
The top twelve all have it in them to beat just about anyone.
But the keys to the Kingdom for Justine are cutting out losses to non-elite players, and improving that record against those ranked ahead of her.

4) Lindsay Davenport is still carrying results from when she first returned to the tour. Run the numbers. Lindsay's going to be #4 before Roland Garros, absent injury. Justine was defending over 1000 points before RG. Lindsay was defending zilch. Statistically, Justine had to earn 300 more points than Lindsay to stay ranked ahead of her for RG. Right now, Lindsay is earning just as many points as Justine on Justine's best surface, and Lindsay's worst.

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post #2 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 04:40 PM
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If my thinking is correct, Lindsay has about 2 more months of gaining free points ... Let's go Lindsay

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post #3 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 04:49 PM
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Very insightful analysis. Thanks. Indeed Lindsay seems to be getting really close.

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post #4 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 05:09 PM
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Lindsay #4 before RG ???
unlikely as she's not going to play until week before

Justine even though she's got tons of pts to defend will still stay ahead of Lindsay.

Justine is still 700 pts ahead. and even after today it still will be around 625

Justine will come out further ahead of Lindsay after RG than she will go into it

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post #5 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 05:17 PM
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Justine will be #4 as Lindsay isnt playing again till Madrid

unless she totally bombs out or something
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post #6 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 05:17 PM
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also this is davenports 18 tournament, so shes not just adding free points anymore
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post #7 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 05:25 PM
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Justine will stay number 4 because Lindsay won't have freat RED clay results. On the European clay you need more 'work-tennis' and that's not Lindsay's cup of tea.
Ok if Justine plays awfull and loses in every 1st round ... yeah than will Lindsay pass her.

One notice to the 7-2 against Kim ... wel it's 1-1 on clay and 1-0 for Justine on grass. If both girls will play more against eachother on the surfaces the H2H would be more equal I think.

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post #8 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 06:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fleemke²
Justine will stay number 4 because Lindsay won't have freat RED clay results. On the European clay you need more 'work-tennis' and that's not Lindsay's cup of tea.
Ok if Justine plays awfull and loses in every 1st round ... yeah than will Lindsay pass her.

One notice to the 7-2 against Kim ... wel it's 1-1 on clay and 1-0 for Justine on grass. If both girls will play more against eachother on the surfaces the H2H would be more equal I think.

You suppose that Justine would beat Kim if they played more often on clay or grass.

H2H on clay 1-1
H2H on grass 1-0 for Justine

Justine's favorite surface is clay but Kim has improved a lot. She made a Slam final on clay and won a title on clay.
Tell me why do you think that Justine would beat her.

And that's not because she leads 1-0 on grass that she's gonna win the next matches.
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post #9 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 06:32 PM
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Let's see on clay...Justine has won 2 tier I's, beat Serena and ender her winning streak, made another tier I final..... made a Tier II SF,and Final, and made SF at RG, tell me...what didn't you understand about that comment again?


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post #10 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 06:42 PM
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Justine get's on my nerves.......her hubby is a hottie though!

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post #11 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 06:48 PM
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Justine is very good on clay but she lost against Dementieva.

She was one of the favorites last year and you know what has happened.
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post #12 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 07:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volcana
Lindsay Davenport is still carrying results from when she first returned to the tour. Run the numbers. Lindsay's going to be #4 before Roland Garros, absent injury.
I've run the numbers. You're incorrect.

Quote:
Justine was defending over 1000 points before RG.
And she's defended 547 as of now.

Quote:
Lindsay was defending zilch. Statistically, Justine had to earn 300 more points than Lindsay to stay ranked ahead of her for RG.
And, since Lindsay won't play any more clay events until Madrid, which doesn't affect Roland Garros seedings, Justine has a perfectly fine chance to stay ahead.

Quote:
Right now, Lindsay is earning just as many points as Justine on Justine's best surface, and Lindsay's worst.
Also a fallacy. Lindsay, should she win today, will have 474 points in the same two-week span where Justine won 547. And since she refuses to play anymore, that's all she wrote.

Justine still has to work for the #4 seed, but it's no given.

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post #13 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 07:32 PM
 
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I'd never have said this until last week, but I think that Justine has a reasonable shot for no.3. Although Kim seems to be beat her all the time, it's all mental. She doesn't play well against her.

However, in view of her win over Serena - which is big because it's not like Serena wasn't expecting her to play well and she always picks up her game against the top players - I think she may be getting over her mental barriers.

It's now up to Kim to prove she's the better player.
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post #14 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 07:36 PM Thread Starter
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I didn't realize Lindsay was skipping all the red clay tournaments. Although, given that comment about 'being married they next time you see me', I should have put two and two together.

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post #15 of 42 (permalink) Old Apr 20th, 2003, 07:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rtael
Let's see on clay...Justine has won 2 tier I's, beat Serena and ender her winning streak, made another tier I final..... made a Tier II SF,and Final, and made SF at RG, tell me...what didn't you understand about that comment again?

Let's just wait and see. They haven't played a lot on these surfaces.
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