Any possibilities for Justine to pass Kim and Venus by the French/Wimbledon?? - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 06:54 AM Thread Starter
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Any possibilities for Justine to pass Kim and Venus by the French/Wimbledon??

ranking experts... please help.
Thank you

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post #2 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 01:30 PM
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Nope. Justine has a ton of points to defend from now till the French Open.

She was:

finalist in Amelia Island
winner in Berlin
finalist in Rome

She can gain a lot of points at the French Open, but she has to defend semi-final points at Wimbledon.
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post #3 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:44 PM Thread Starter
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post #4 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:45 PM
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I she does well at the French she could though as she went out in the first round last year.

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post #5 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:47 PM
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no way

did u see her record in the lead up to RG last year??

if anything, Linzi will overtake her
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post #6 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:48 PM
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u missed quarters of hamburg (which is now cancelled)
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post #7 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 04:54 PM
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Yep she has a lot of points to defend going into the French. But she has nothing to defend at Roland Garros, so one or two good tourneys before Roland Garros and a good/great Roland Garros run, could possibly bring her close to that number 3 spot.

It all depends of course what Kim, Venus and even Lindsay produce till Roland Garros/Wimby.

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post #8 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 05:24 PM
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safe points till French (up to and excluding for seeding's sake)
Venus: 4325 (already > Henin's present point, consisting of 11))
Clijster: 4160 (full 17 tournament)
Henin: 3643+420-59=4004 pts......(present)
safe points: 4004-433-301-221+1+1+2=3053 pts.

thus in safe points......Henin needs to about 1300 pts to pass Venus
to be seeded 2nd assuming Venus and Kim dont play for a month,
6 weeks left, with a Fed Cup week,
so 5 weeks featuring Tier II, Tier IIB, 2 Tier I, and a Tier III
so total round points available
assuming she plays both Tier I (Rome+Berlin) =275*2=450
and Tier II Amelie Island=195
so 650 points in round points if she wins all 3,
750 quality points needed,
usually a Slam offers about 200-400 quality points if all seeds hold
and probably 150-300 for Tier II........depending on entries
so assuming 2 Tier I has all TOP 10 players,
except V and K
and the Tier II has all TOP 8 players,
except V and K
so obtained by beating Serena 3 times=300, in F
then beating #5 in the world 3 times=150 in SF
beating #10 3 times=126 in QF
total of about 500,
the rest of 200 is not hard to obtain

so assuming that Venus and Kim get injured till French OPEN,
and Serena will lose to Henin 3 times in a row,
and Henin wins 3 tournaments straight.........
yes she can...........
though highly unlikely.:P, but she can......
and she beats the best plays in there,
she still has a chance,

so yes.......
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post #9 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolio
safe points till French (up to and excluding for seeding's sake)
Venus: 4325 (already > Henin's present point, consisting of 11))
Clijster: 4160 (full 17 tournament)
Henin: 3643+420-59=4004 pts......(present)
safe points: 4004-433-301-221+1+1+2=3053 pts.

thus in safe points......Henin needs to about 1300 pts to pass Venus
to be seeded 2nd assuming Venus and Kim dont play for a month,
6 weeks left, with a Fed Cup week,
so 5 weeks featuring Tier II, Tier IIB, 2 Tier I, and a Tier III
so total round points available
assuming she plays both Tier I (Rome+Berlin) =275*2=450
and Tier II Amelie Island=195
so 650 points in round points if she wins all 3,
750 quality points needed,
usually a Slam offers about 200-400 quality points if all seeds hold
and probably 150-300 for Tier II........depending on entries
so assuming 2 Tier I has all TOP 10 players,
except V and K
and the Tier II has all TOP 8 players,
except V and K
so obtained by beating Serena 3 times=300, in F
then beating #5 in the world 3 times=150 in SF
beating #10 3 times=126 in QF
total of about 500,
the rest of 200 is not hard to obtain

so assuming that Venus and Kim get injured till French OPEN,
and Serena will lose to Henin 3 times in a row,
and Henin wins 3 tournaments straight.........
yes she can...........
though highly unlikely.:P, but she can......
and she beats the best plays in there,
she still has a chance,

so yes.......
That was very good coolio ... although you simnplified it a little bit (you forgot for example the 18th best tournaments, which usually diminishes the number of pts that p[layers can add to their toitals since they always have to do better than rheir 18th best tournaments to add ...).
Otherwise, I agree with everything but your conclusion which is :

NO SHE CAN'T be seeded #2 by the french!
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post #10 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 06:32 PM
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r u the joao from GoTennis and the WTA pred game??
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post #11 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 14th, 2003, 06:36 PM
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but we'll see what it looks like after the french!


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post #12 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 15th, 2003, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SerenaJWilliams
r u the joao from GoTennis and the WTA pred game??
hey, never say never.....
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post #13 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 16th, 2003, 02:02 AM
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She could if she wins Amelia ISland which I think she will, she if she does win it she will only be around 100 points behind Kim going into Berlin, when Kim's Hamburg points come off, yeah I know she has a lot to defend but if she has earnt those points before there is absolutley no reason she can't do it again actually I think she will win Berlin, but will be tough for her to win Rome as both Williams and Kim will be there.

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post #14 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 16th, 2003, 02:34 AM
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BY French? No chance at all. Not likely through Wimbledon unless Venus trips up.

You have to answer for Santino, Carlo.
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post #15 of 18 (permalink) Old Apr 16th, 2003, 03:28 AM
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it's very unlikely but possible.

Amelia Island's point have already come off, she is now abut 700 points behind Kim and Venus.

If Justine wins Amelia Island, can add about 300 points, reducing the difference to about 400.

Neither Venus, nor Kim are playing Warsaw. Kim will drop about 360 poins and Venus about 230. Justine will drop 59 so she could be about 100 points from Kim and about 200 from Venus.

IF she defends the point in Berlin and Rome. And Kim and Venus don't win, they are both likely to get about 200 points. Kim got to the semis in Rome but only got one point in Berlin, Venus didn't play Rome.

So, she could be around 300 points from Kim and 400 from Venus (or 400 and 500).

Even though Kim defends very little at RG, Justine defends nothing. If (and again big if) she wins RG she can add 1,000 points.

It's very difficult and very unlikely, but possible.
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