Numba 2 seed.....
my brother figured these out for the French. I say its not accurate, but its a very well "gestimate" on what the rankings could end up looking like, i posted it on ESPN board as well.
here are some calulations for you to figure...
Venus 4839 -284 (Amelie Island F won)
Venus 4555- 230 (Hamburg F loss)
Venus 4325 (if she plays no more tournies, this will be her total going into RG)
Venus has 4325 pts, w/out adding J/S or ROME which there she has NO POINTS TO DEFEND. She will just rack in the points there. Say she wins J/S, she should get about the same amount of pts like Amelie Island, so just add like 250 pts, that gives her around 4575 pts. (obviously if she won she would get more than 250 pts) Then say she does semis or Finals in rome, well semis she will get around 200 pts (like Kim did), and finals aorund 300 pts (like Justine did) So she could leave Rome with about 4775 or 4885 pts.
Kim 4585 -361 (Hamburg F Won)
Kim 4224 -1 (Berlin 1r Loss)
Kim 4223 -200 (Rome SF Loss)
Kim plans on playing only 2 tournies Berlin/Rome. She hasn't picked up any so far to really replace Hamburg. She may, she may not. Take note, she is taking a month off, which means she should start playing again around May 1st.
Now looking at Kim. After Rome off she has 4224 pts. Remember Kim is number 3 now, so she won't be able to get all those quality pts. Say she gets like semis in Berlin, well Jennifer Cappy only got 190 so add that for Kim, she has 4414, then say she does equal her semi final appearnce for ROME, she definetly won't get 200 pts, seeing she will be number 3. Jennifer was number 1 seed, only got 169 pts, being number 1 2 or 3 seed, you don't get that many quality points. So add about 170 pts to kims total 4584, this takes kim back to basically where she started off going into the clay court season. B/c She has more points to defend than Venus, and b/c she is seeded higher, you must consider that she won't be getting all those "huge" quality points, and it will be the major factor i think with her ranking. Venus on the other hand, she can basically equal her performance b/c she will be seed the same. But note, she is just adding points, where kim, for now is more so having to defend points. As you can see, Venus only got 284 pts for winning Amelie Island, she was the number 1 seed. Top Seeds don't get that many quality poits. With that said, if Kim does pick up a tournie Venus again will have around 4775 or 4885 pts, which is around 190-300pt differential between her and kim depending on how venus does in those tournies. Kim Will have to pick up another tournie if she wants to have any contention in the number 2 spot. Having played so much already. And sighting fatiuge earlier. I doubt she will want to play 3 clay tournies going into the French. She will just want to take a break.
So far Venus is like 322 safe pts ahead of Kim. (right now) Say Kim were to pick up Amelie Island, venus was the number 1 seed there, Kim wound be numbe 1 seed and Venus won only accumulating 284 pts last year. I say that is about the most Kim would get. Venus would still be ahead in the rankings.
Again consider the fact that Im saying Venus/Kim could do well in all these tournies, semis, finals or wins. They might not do that, but this is what im basing it on, if they were to do it. Serena/Venus/Kim all have gotten better. I think they will continue to show the similar results on the clay just like on the hardcourts.
Follow Me! @CedricEarl