Maxim Gorky analyzes tennis - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 12:39 PM Thread Starter
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Maxim Gorky analyzes tennis

Divided TOTAL tournament by points because I feel it's a better measure of productivity. I toosed in a few jhigh ranked players so it was easier to see how well the lowere ranked players with few tournaments were doing. Remember, under this system, a five point difference is like a hundred points in the rankings. And outside the top fifty, 100 points can be ten, even twenty ranking spots.
Code:
rk ppt

09 168.86 Monica Seles           2364  14

          Okay, so no one ranked below her
          (but Chanda) is any threat at all.
          She's just there as a marker.

10  81.14 Jelena Dokic           2353  29

          Yeah she plays too much.  But 
          look at the gap between her 
          and Raymond.  She's certainly 
          on of the fifteen best players 
          in the world, even though she's
          not playing like top ten right now.

21  57.64 Lisa Raymond           1268  22

          She's making a run for a spot
          on the Olympic team.  (IMHO)

52  54.15 Myriam Casanova         704  13

          Here's the surprise to me.
          Not even top fifty, but 
          producing points like she
          should be SOLIDLY seeded
          in the Slams.  Like #25, #26.

98  52.57 Ashley Harkleroad       367  17  7

          The highest ranked American 
          under age 21.  Is the USTA 
          even capable of developing 
          players?

          Tennisconer had a typo.  Harlkeroad 
          has SEVEN tournaments, not
          seventeen.  I two-facedly worship 
          her feet. :)  Seriously, I know will 
          have to do a real write-up, since I nuked
          her using lame data as a source.  
          Ah penance.  Actually, it's the USTA I owe 
          the apology to, but I'm not sure about them.
  
47  49.73 Mary Pierce             746  15

          Concievably could be seeded at RG.
          If she had 17 tournaments and 
          continued to earn points at this 
          rate she's have about 845.
          Right now, that's #39.
          #38 if you assume the absence 
          of Hingis. 

20  48.42 Silvia Farina Elia     1356  28

          "... Catch me now I'm falling...."

40  46.22 Vera Zvonareva          832  18

          She's already 18.  The arc 
          of her career just isn't saying 
          'elite player'.

33  40.58 Iva Majoli              974  24

          This is with Charleston holding
          up her ranking.  Over a third of 
          her points.

69  39.76 Dinara Safina           517  13

          She's earning points like she 
          should be seeded at the Slams.
          Almost.  For a 16 years old,
          doing quite well.
          NOt Hingis-esque, but ....

44  37.29 Barbara Schett          783  21

          Same age as Capriati, Davenport
          Rubin etc.  Top ten a couple
          years ago.  Has she just stopped 
          caring?  Why is it that 
          every blonde who becomes 
          sex-symbol-of-the-month
          loses all form?

96  35.18 Lina Krasnoroutskaya    387  11

          See Zvonareva

53  33.19 Iroda Tulyaganova       697  21
54  30.72 Anna Kournikova         676  22

          See many, many, many other 
          threads


73  16.41 Klara Koukalova         476  29

          Hope she has 'top hundred'
          bonuses in her endorement 
          contracts.  At 16.41 points 
          per tournament, this may
          be a career high ranking.

Proud to be an American
Not blind. Not uninformed. We are party to atrocities. But the response of the world after 9/11 is worth noting. Even our most dire enemies offered aid. We should all be so lucky.

Last edited by Volcana; Feb 11th, 2003 at 11:57 PM.
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post #2 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 12:49 PM
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Lina K. missed a year with injuries, so she had to start from scratch. I think she has a chance to be an elite player, more than Vera Z.
But re: Vera, Ashley, some people develop later. I doubt they'll be grand slam winners, but see Danilidou, she was on no one's radar at 18, didn't make her first grand slam main draw till she was 19 I believe, now she's closing in on top 10.

Interesting numbers. Thanks.
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post #3 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 01:25 PM
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Great thread! (Lina ) BTW, no disrespect to MGM, but this confirms why the SUI Fed. "placed their bets" on Myriam a few years ago. I didn't want to admit Vera Z. being a disappointment, but "the Vera" will likely be Douchevina. See, V, this is EXACTLY why the "best 17" ranking method totally sux. It's a tool of the event owners who REALLY run the WTA (and ATP) to get the "names" playing everywhere (to have 17 events "cherry picked"). And it's NOT just Jeca with (31?) last year, the TYPICAL non-injured player had mid 20's in singles events. (Plus you get an outrage like "coach" Krizan getting Srebotnik doing dubs with her everywhere as well as singles )! Ever wonder why all these "wear and tear" injuries are so common?
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post #4 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 01:50 PM
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The top ten with this method is :

1 WILLIAMS, SERENA
2 WILLIAMS, VENUS
3 DAVENPORT, LINDSAY
4 MAURESMO, AMELIE
5 CLIJSTERS, KIM
6 SELES, MONICA
7 CAPRIATI, JENNIFER
8 HENIN-HARDENNE, JUSTINE
9 RUBIN, CHANDA
10 HANTUCHOVA, DANIELA

Only Dokic is out, replaced by Chanda Rubin.
Obviously you can't be atop player without "productivity". But the method doesn't take into account an important issue which is CONSISTENCY.
A ranking that would interest me is an "elo"-type ranking based only on head to heads without distinction of the tournament. It would probably give something similar with the quality points ranking, indeed.
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post #5 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 02:05 PM Thread Starter
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mishar - you're correct about slow development of course. I always try to remember Martina Navratilova didn't win her first GS til she was 23. But for MOST players, their peak years are either late teens to early twenties, or late twenties. But even the real good players peaking in their late twenties are usually peaking aroudn #15 - #5. And I can't recall a GS winner doing that. (Novotna is just weird.) But Testud and Halard-Decugis, for example, but became top ten players rather late in their careers.

Lin K's injury have been unfortunate in more ways than one. Besides retarding her development, Serena and Kim both REALLY racheted up their games. They are a lot less likely to be eliminated from a tournament before LK would meet them, and now it's a sure loss for her. In 2001, both of them were good for a poor result or two, and a much lower ranked player, like Lina K, would reap the points. Or not have to play them since they lost early. Ain't hap'n now. Points are dear.

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post #6 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 06:16 PM Thread Starter
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Oh c'mon guys! I know it's an obscure literary reference but someone must have caught it. Brian Stewart, take your time. Let someone else answer.

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post #7 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 07:03 PM
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great analysis

thats definately the real top 10

as for Zvonareva, give her a year or two before you draw conclusions as in the BIG matches, she is able to come up with the goods
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post #8 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 07:57 PM Thread Starter
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Nicolás - Not the book I was referring to, but you've pegged the author.

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post #9 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 10:17 PM
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Perhaps, you meant the book "At the bottom", which AFAIK, was published in West under very strange name "The Lower Depths". That would be my best guess..

"..just knowing that as long as i choose life, there is hope."

Je ne suis pas charlie

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post #10 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 11:24 PM
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Volcana,
I agree about Jelena. If she somehow manages not to lose interest in her matches all the time, I think she definetly belongs in top ten.

Well, Maxim Gorky is one of my fave authors (His autobiography "My childhood", IMO, is amongst the top ten best books of I have ever read), but I am at a loss how/in what way this thread is related to him.
:ashamed:
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post #11 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 11th, 2003, 11:50 PM Thread Starter
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Nicely done ys! "The Lower Depths", it is! We talk about the top five all the time. It can get old.

Proud to be an American
Not blind. Not uninformed. We are party to atrocities. But the response of the world after 9/11 is worth noting. Even our most dire enemies offered aid. We should all be so lucky.
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post #12 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 12th, 2003, 12:33 AM
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I love his "Conversations with Tolstoy"

I'm not sure why you think you're mistaken Volcana. Ashley has played 17 tournaments, I believe.
And I'm not proposing that she is any great shakes, but she is the 4th youngest girl in the top 100. (Only Kusnetsova, Casanova and Safina are younger.)
And while I agree that if a player is going to have a major impact on the game, they're usually in the top 10 before they turn 18, there are plenty of good top 20-30 players who are not in the top 60 before they turn 18.

Such as:
Mauresmo
Myskina
Hantuchova
Stevenson
Danilidou
Coetzer
Suarez
Sugiyama
tanasugarn
Shaughnessey
Farina
Raymond
Dechy
Panova

In other words, not most of the "superstars" but some pretty good players. So it's a little early to dismiss Harckleroad altogether.
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post #13 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 12th, 2003, 02:21 AM Thread Starter
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Oh the hell with it. I predict Ashley Harleroad wins the US Open this year! I don't know what the hell is going on!

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post #14 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 12th, 2003, 02:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Volcana
Oh the hell with it. I predict Ashley Harleroad wins the US Open this year! I don't know what the hell is going on!
"Spice Girls II" final - Britney vs. Sharky!
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post #15 of 16 (permalink) Old Feb 12th, 2003, 03:27 AM
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Well, I wouldn't go that far!

She's no grand slam champion, but I'm not sure her performance is a reason for despair. Though it is too bad she's the best under-20 player the US seems to have right now.
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