Time to put your heads on the chopping block (RE Serena).... - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 04:57 AM Thread Starter
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Time to put your heads on the chopping block (RE Serena)....

How many Grand Slam titles will Serena Williams win in her career?

This question may be pricklier than it appears on face value.
In recent history we have witnessed a number of players go on a brilliant and sometimes unprecedented tear and then fizzle out, be criminally interfered with or chronically injured. The plight of these four ladies in the past ten years proves that making long range predictions is fraught with risk, and even the safest #1 can meet her match at anytime. Each woman met a different nemesis, but in the end the result was the same.

After the Australian Open of 1993 who would have dared predict that Monica Seles, winner of 8 of the last 12 majors would win just 1 of the next 40? So dominant was she that a deranged Steffi Graf fan felt the only way to stop her was to stick a knife in her back. Sadly, it worked.

After the tour championships of 1996, who would have predicted that Graf, winner of the past 6 Grandslams that she had entered, would win only one more grandslam before retirement, and this would come almost 3 years after her 1996 US Open championship. Knee surgery and constant niggling injuries meant that Graf was fully fit for perhaps only two months in her post 1996 career.

After the Australian open of 1998 who would have predicted that Martina Hingis, winner of 4 of the last 5 majors, and runner up in the other, would win just 1 of the next 20, including a 16 grandslam losing streak and the prospect of never returning to the game. Hingis' confrontation of bigger hitting foes, her own demons and stubborness conspired to end her Grand Slam domination.

And after Lindsay Davenport had capped a glorious rejuvenation by winning her 3rd Grandslam in 6 tries at the Australian Open of 2000, who would have thought that she would have 0 grandlam wins in the next 12 majors. Not only did she have a dominant GS record at this time but she also had a 5 match winning streak over her nearest rival - without dropping a set. Two knee surgeries have meant that Davenport, has not yet - and probably will never - regain her relentless precision hitting from the back of court.

At this point in time, one of the above ladies is retired, another may be permanently sidelined and the two others have only outside chances of adding to their tallies. So after each experienced their time of domination (For Graf the aforementioned period was one of three distinct periods of domination) that reaped a collective 22 GS titles, the quartet have only 3 grandslams between them.

And now we come to Serena Williams. Winner of the past 4 majors. Undisputed World #1. With this history in mind is it wise to presume that plain sailing will allow Serena to rack up numbers well into double digit figures? Or will other factors conspire to prevent Serena from joining the all time greats such as Court, Navratilova, Evert and Graf?

It would be wise to factor in some injury time, the possibility of Serena's level slipping at some point and a rise in competition. Of course, how many grandslams these factors will cost her is purely opinion. Whatever number you pick, choose carefully, because you are stuck with it. And as we have seen in a number of prediction threads that have been dredged up recently, archives can be a bitch

Have fun

Last edited by {{{RoB}}}; Jan 27th, 2003 at 10:49 AM.
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post #2 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 05:03 AM
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I too feel slams will become harder to obtain. Venus, Clijsters, Justine, and other players will stepup to also win slams. But I see Serena averaging at least one slam a year for the next 5 or 6 years. I believe she will surpass ten at a minimum.

Beat'em down Ms Williams, beat'em down!

Victoria Duval - coming to a slam near you
Françoise Abanda definitely a future #1 --- Taylor Townsend devastation on the march
Venus and Serena ferocious grannies --- Kimiko Date Krumm great granny still doing her thing.
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post #3 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 05:08 AM
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You know we should do these more often, we should take a guess and check out years later who gets it right.

I'll take a stab... 14 slams

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post #4 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 05:10 AM
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It's an interesting question, because no one knows what the future holds. Obviously, I am a fan of tennis that believes had Monica NOT been stabbed, she would own more then 9 Slams, and Graf would not own 22. But that's how it happened.

I think the main thing in Serena's way is Venus. Granted Serena has beaten Venus 4 or 5 times in a row, but I believe if Venus and Serena were to play their A games ALL the time against each other, the H2H would be more even.

It's almost even now...I think tied 6-6, or Serena 6-5, something like that. But, IMO, they are even in talent. I still think there are many questions involving last year's victories for Serena, and I think the AO was a sign of good things to come.

Realistically, each match the girls play should be a three-set thriller, because they are so evenly matched. That being said, instead of the lop-sided H2H that we've seen [Venus dominates; Serena Dominates], it should be Venus wins; Serena wins; Serena wins; Venus wins;...ect. Very evenly balanced.

I think the other major factor is the length of the career. Venus will more then likely retire at the end of the 2005 season, when her Reebok contract is up. By that time, will a Kim Clijsters have won her first major? Henin? Davenport back to winning? Capriati?

I think these are major questions. I think if Venus gets her DESIRE back this year [HER desire, not her desire to see Serena do well--which was a big part of last year, IMO], I think Venus will win at least 2 Slams this year.

But I also sense that Serena will have the longer career. And she has 5 now, so I will say Serena will have 12
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post #5 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 06:30 AM
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On a hunch, 8.
I'll probably be at one extreme or the other; either within 1 or 2, or not even within 6.
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post #6 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 06:31 AM
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10-12, but spread over quite a few years.
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post #7 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 10:49 AM Thread Starter
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come on people
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post #8 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 10:56 AM
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Originally posted by {{{RoB}}}
come on people
I think they're all scared

Anyway, are you all serious? I thought I was underrating her with 14?
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post #9 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 11:23 AM
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That is a hard question. And 14 was a good pick. I figure the two of them combined for abut 24, so let's say 16 for Serena

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post #10 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 01:27 PM
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I think about 15, factoring in injuries and other things that may happen. So about ten more slams at the minimum for the rest of her career.
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post #11 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 01:35 PM
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I seriously cant see serena beating Venus at Wimbledon and Roland Garros as decisively as sh ehas this past year. So i agree i think serena will take at least one per year . Maybe 2. But i think Venus will definately pick it up and start to win also.serena will probably play 5 more years at least so i see her winning at least 2 a year on average. She should own AUSOPEN, USOPEN and win wmbledon and french every other year. So my guess is that she can take around 15 Grand slams plus or minus 3. But i also think that if one of the sisters gets close to breaking steffi's or martnina's record that they will play longer to over take it. just a feeling. So its atough call. But i think Venus said she would be satisfied with 12 grand slams and i think she will definately get around twelve. i see her taking Wimbledon at least 3 more times. Us open a couple more times. and she will win french open and AUSOPEN should serena fail to take it. I think of all the players, Venus seems more equipped to win the true grand slam, serena also, but Venus is less likely to suffer from bad nerves on the red clay stuff.

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post #12 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 01:41 PM
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The original post is extremely funny Rob, specially the "archives can be a bitch" part.

Hmmm, she has 5 now. I think she'll play for around another 5 years.

I say anywhere from 12-20 slams, so I'll pick 16.
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post #13 of 13 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2003, 11:10 PM Thread Starter
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Only 9 brave people so far
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