Originally posted by mmcdonald
Why will Henin fall?
She'll LOSE to Amelie
She'll LOSE to Monica
She'll LOSE to Hantuchova
She'll LOSE to Capriati
She'll LOSE to Davenport
Realistically, I'm not going to deny that Henin-Hardenne MIGHT lose to some of those players. However, to say that she WILL lose to them seems pretty premature.
And there's something else you need to take into consideration in this whole scenario -- timing. You don't lose points by losing to players ranked below you, you lose points by not doing as well in a tournament as you did the previous year, or if you lose to lesser competition than you did in the previous year.
Yes, Davenport, barring injury, will definitely close the gap between herself and the top five, however, most of the players ranked ahead of her will have some opportunity to gain points between now and Wimbledon.
Henin-Hardenne, and this has already been mentioned, can gain points at Miami and Roland Garros if she shows up and just wins one match. She's also, if I remember right, playing in Dubai and Charleston, tournaments she didn't compete in last year. If she plays all four of these events, that means four events, Tier II or higher, she can gain points, a lot of points if she does well. If she stays healthy and does respectably well in the tournaments where she has to defend big points, and with the entire clay-court season, it will be very difficult for Davenport to catch her. I'm not saying it can't be done, I just think Davenport's going to need help.
That being said, at this point, and barring injury, I don't see the top four changing between now and Wimbledon. I think that there's just too much of a gap between them and the rest of the field. Once again, I think that Davenport will close the gap greatly, but she's got to close a gap of 1236 points in about five months. That's going to be a challenge given her recent problems. Of course, the key phrases in all this are AT THIS POINT and BARRING INJURY. This is all just hypothesizing -- that's half the fun of it.