Have looked at the amount of points current top 32 players shall be defending over the clay season (up until the end of the FO) to give an idea of who may take a slip in the rankings or have a chance to climb. Might be useful for those of you who, like me, forgot who did well outside of the biggest events.
Those defending the most points a.(in terms of actual points)
b.(in terms of percentage of points to be defended)
1. Lepchenko (38%)
2. Sharapova (34%)
3. Errani (34%)
4. Safarova (33%)
5. Stosur (30%)
6. Venus (30%)
7. CSN (29%)
8. Cibulkova (27%). POOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Those defending the least (in terms of percentage of points to be defended):
1. Flipkens 0%
2. Bartoli 1%!!
3. Paszek 2.5% (That much!!!)
4. Wozniacki 2.5%
5. Jankovic 5%
6. Kirilenko 8%
7. Vinci 8%
8. Barthel 8%
Note i have stripped out points that are below players 17th event and added players 17th results back into their totals. Bit of a rough and ready assessment.
Other key points:
I'd say all of top ten should remain there after the FO other than Stosur who is vulnerable.
Stosur, Nadia, Bartoli, Kirilenko, Vinci in best positions to take the number 10 spot.
A big result, or several, could help Aga leapfrog Maria but looks unlikely.
Venus, Safarova, CSN biggest potential fallers
URad and Barthel could be biggest climbers.
Zakopalova has a chance of sneaking into the top 20 before the french.
Top 18 down to Jankovic look pretty safe. Flipkens, Makarova, URad, Paszek and Barthel best placed to sneak into slots 19 and 20 after the french.
Who will stop her? Giving her current seeding she will defend most of her points to stay in Top8 even if she fails to defend all her points, she still will be in top10
if her foot/heel is better she could do well this clay season- she did so well last year having not played before and probably shouldnt have played during!
I don't want to sound rude but in the context of this thread: you are cheering for Maria's fall...
I am quite hoping that Li can go at least 1 spot with extremely good results. The top 3 will most likely be the same 3 players but the order of 2 and 3 would most likely be Azarenka and Sharapova, respectively.
Even if Maria doesn't defend her titles but has deep runs everywhere, she will remain firmly in the Top 3. There's no one else to challenge those spots
What other results players have in their back pocket will also be an issue - not just the clay points.
Wapanoba is counting all her results, whereas Sara and most others have extra that can come in (although Vika and Serena have very little extra to count)
Take out 470 points for Wapanoba's Stuttgart win and her ranking drops by 470. However, take out 560 points for Sara's wins from Budapest and Barcelona, and her ranking drops from 5405 to 5270 (135 drop), as other results can be counted (plus her poor Rome result does not count on her ranking).
Give Wapanoba the worst clay season possible and she loses all 3620 points.
Give Sara the worst possible clay season and her ranking will drop by about 1600 (not 2110) - mostly due to the 1400 RG semi points.
Similarly, Petra would stand to drop by about 1110 points maximum (rather than 1405) and Aga by about 960 (rather than 1281).
Hopefully, Sharapova can defend some of her big clay wins...she has been playing well as of late.
As for the people who will win and gain the most, the answer is the same that it has been ... oh for the last ten years now. Sereta y Nadal.
and all of these rising....
Those defending the least (in terms of percentage of points to be defended):
1. Flipkens 0%
2. URadwanska 1%!!
3. Bartoli 1%!!
4. Paszek 2.5% (That much!!!)
5. Wozniacki 2.5%
6. Jankovic 5%
7. Kirilenko 8%
8. Vinci 8%
Surely Ula has more than 1% of her points to defend on clay, she reached Brussels QF as a qualifier which gave her 140 points, then proceeded to win one match at Roland Garros. 240 points in total, and last I checked she does not have 24000 points in the rankings.
Wow, I knew Flipkens was away for a long time, but I didn't realise that she STILL has a free run to pick up points. It makes her current ranking even more impressive considering she has no clay points on it too. She has a great shot at cracking top 20 and maybe even higher.
Those defending the least (in terms of percentage of points to be defended):
1. Flipkens 0%
2. URadwanska 1%!!
3. Bartoli 1%!!
4. Paszek 2.5% (That much!!!)
5. Wozniacki 2.5%
6. Jankovic 5%
7. Kirilenko 8%
8. Vinci 8%
Actually, the numbers are pretty close. Out of curiosity, I looked at Bartoli and her numbers are skewed because she plays so much. She has 6 1 or 5 pointers, but is 7 or 8 tournaments over. Ula's stats are even stranger, because her 5 pointers are Wimbledon and US Open. Also, her ranking was so low this time last year that she was playing ITF. And played 29 tournaments the last 12 months.