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post #31 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 1st, 2012, 11:26 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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Uhhh I only mentioned the $10K because it was part of Friedsam's winning streak. I agree that results in $10K are pretty meaningless and to be honest I don't even really follow/look at $10K results period. But the fact that players are able to win multiple/back to back $25Ks as a 17/18 year old something to take notice of. You're telling me that Gasparyan winning three $25Ks in a row as a 17 year old is something to take lightly? Players like Kvitova and Kerber were tearing up the European $25K events in 2006/2007. It shows they're consistently winning matches at this level at a young age and it's definitely a good sign.

None of these players in discussion have really achieved anything of note on the WTA tour, with the exception of Muguruza Blanco who reached 4R of Miami (beating Zvonareva and Pennetta) and QF of Fes. Witthoeft had the win over Pironkova in Stuttgart. That's about it. So that's why you need to look at ITF results if you're trying to look at who might be a top player in 4-5 years time, because realistically the players aren't going to have decent WTA results until they're 18/19 years old and by then they're breaking Top 100 and everybody knows about them (like Stephens, Babos, Robson).

And just to reiterate I'm not saying that any of this suggests that all of these players will be great, but it's pretty much guaranteed that at least a few of the players I talked about will be Top 10. I mean, players don't just appear on the WTA tour out of nowhere. If a player from 1993/1994 was going to be any good, we would've most likely heard about them by now ("we" being tennis nerds). If you look at the top players now they all started off their careers with strong performances in $25Ks and such as teenagers and worked their way up. Even Sharapova played $10Ks and $25Ks. That's why I guess I kept talking about the $25K tournament wins, because junior results are much less relevant with this sort of thing. Of course it's equally guaranteed that a lot of these players will never achieve anything special, but I think that's something we both agree on.

I agree "flop" was a poor choice of word, that's why I put it in quotation marks. I didn't mean to be so harsh.
Oh yes, absolutely, looking at ITF results is the only way we can get any indication of who the stars of tomorrow are. Certainly they provide a much better indication for future success than do junior results. No disagreements there. But because we are dealing with humans there are always surprises and predicting stars of the future is not easy. There are always surprises. So we can get indications of which players have a good shot at a WTA level career but we can never get more than that.

It is not actually true that all of the top 10 excelled on the ITF circuit at an early age, although of course most did it's true. Sammy Stosur never won an ITF event and didn't reach the top 100 till she was 20. Sara Errani won one ITF event at the age of twenty which was also the age she reached the top 100. Li Na didn't reach the top 100 till she was 22, although she did win quite a few ITF titles in her teens, albeit mostly 10ks. None of these players however looked like they were heading for the top 10 as teenagers.

Tennis is always producing surprises and so often we see good results on the ITF circuit that lead no where while other players on the circuit will come from nowhere and emmerge from mediocre or worse results.

For example, Dinah Pfizenmaier at the age of 19 had played 19 ITF events and come away with 1 single 10k main draw win. I don't suppose at that point many people (outside of perhaps her immediate family) would have been predicting any sort of tennis future for her. But now one year later she is 140 and looking a good bet to be top 100 by the end of the year and likely to have a pretty decent career.

On the other hand, Magda Linette went 32-3 on the ITF circuit with 4 titles and two other finals during the summer of 2010. Yet today, 2 years on, she is only ranked 283. I suppose time hasn't run out on her but the likelihood of her having a career on the WTA tour certainly doesn't look anything like as promising as it did two years ago.

Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor, Margarita Gasparyan & Anna-Lena Friedsam are all on pretty good rolls right now. But really their results aren't that different to the results Magda Linette was getting a couple of years ago. These are girls that certainly warrant keeping an eye on but none has yet demonstrated an ability to regularly beat top 200 players, let alone top 100 players. These girls could all end up very successful or not. They do look promising but they have a long way to go.

In all honesty I am more inclinded to be encouraged when I see a young player demonstate that they can compete, even in competitive losing matches, against top 100, or better yet top 50, opponents, than I am players of 18 years old who are simply good at winning 25ks against players generally ranked outside the top 200. Have to say I like Alison Van Uytvanck's chances at establishing herself on the WTA tour more than I do players like Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor, Margarita Gasparyan & Anna-Lena Friedsam.

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post #32 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 1st, 2012, 11:33 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

If there's anything I find discouraging about the 94/95/96 generations, it's that practically all of them are generic slow baseline power players. Not to say there aren't players that differ but my favorites from this generation haven't had the most encouraging results as of yet.

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post #33 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 1st, 2012, 11:34 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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If there's anything I find discouraging about most of this new generation, it's that practically all of them are generic slow baseline power players.
Well, who's fault is that? The older generation is teaching it.

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post #34 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 1st, 2012, 11:35 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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I should also add, many of the players on this list would kill to be a "flop" like Zahlavova Strycova. A substantial number of these players won't even make the top 100. Meanwhile Strycova has already pocketed 2 million in prize money at 26 years old. As she is proving to be a fine doubles player I would expect that number to double or triple before her career finishes.
2 millions over 10years is barely 200k/year. Financially that is pretty close to the "flop". Of course its not just player´s fault earning less money, but many of them giving up the career because not earning much aka literally flopping.

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post #35 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 1st, 2012, 11:50 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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2 millions over 10years is barely 200k/year. Financially that is pretty close to the "flop". Of course its not just player´s fault earning less money, but many of them giving up the career because not earning much aka literally flopping.
Okay, she is not Sharapova.

But if have any understanding of the amount of money most of the tour earn you would appreciate 10 years of 200k a year isn't bad. Additionally her earning are improving all the time as her doubles career improves. This year she is on target to make 400k.

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post #36 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 2nd, 2012, 08:55 AM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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Okay, she is not Sharapova.

But if have any understanding of the amount of money most of the tour earn you would appreciate 10 years of 200k a year isn't bad. Additionally her earning are improving all the time as her doubles career improves. This year she is on target to make 400k.
(sidenote: 2M is not entirely true, other sources like playing Czech/German Leagues, maybe even sponsors... she earns bit more than just her WTA prize money.)

Taxes will take away ~50% of prize money instantly. Then pay travels, coaches... Maybe looks good money for a teacher, but 99% of youngsters not playing tennis to be next BZS. If you would ask juniors or their parents if they want that success & life, not that many would say yes. But when they get to there around 18-20yo, they have less career/life choices.
Thats why the "would kill to be BZS" part is exaggeration.


( and lol @ cheap shot on Maria. )

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post #37 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 11th, 2012, 04:36 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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I decided not to include Watson has she's already been passed by 93'ers Stephens and Babos and to me she's essentially a 2nd rate McHale.
I've only seen her play once. But she did just beat Stephens

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post #38 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 11th, 2012, 09:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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I've only seen her play once. But she did just beat Stephens
I've watched her a few times and aside from the Sharapova match I just am not impressed with her. She has a nice solid game, with a good attitude but.. that's it. Her matches against Azarenka and Radwanska this season have been embarrasingly one-sided. I can see her reaching Top 50 but that's it. Robson is the more promising Brit if she can improve her movement and serve.

Interestingly in the two weeks since I started this thread:

Larcher de Brito and Zheng have won matches at tour level, Khromacheva has beaten a Top 100 player, Beck has won a 50K event and Svitolina has reached Wimbledon junior finals, beaten by Eugenie Bouchard, who I didn't put in the original list since she's outside Top 300.

Still think this thread is a good "Where are they now?" one to look at for.
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post #39 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 09:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

The first player on the list, Muguruza-Blanco has made Top 100 after reaching final of 100K in Bucharest, beating two Top 100 players. Slightly stuttered recently but on the whole has backed up the form she showed at Miami and moved forward.

Who will be next to join her? not much else to report from the others, Omae has dropped out of Top 250 but Ivakhnenko, who recently qualified in Palermo, and Friedsham, who has won five tournaments this year, have made Top 250 and are now near the mark for Grand Slam qualifying.
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post #40 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 09:19 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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Many of them will inevitably break into the Top 100 in the next year or two, but I'm really not sure which of them (if any) will go onto be future champions or even Top 10 players. A lot of that 93 group are already starting to become stagnate in the Top 200.

All of those players are decent with good junior careers, but have a hell of a long way to go before being any kind of significant threat at WTA level. Some of them hint at it, but there's nobody on the list really who already screams of having a massive future.
not even Madison Keys? i'm hearing so many conflicting reports about her.

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post #41 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 09:57 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

Noone wrote about Ons Jabeur????
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post #42 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 10:14 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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In 5 years time, Vekic will be in the top 20 at least- she's sooo good and underrated
She is good, but I would not go as far as underrated
Francoise Abanda and Eugenie Bouchard are underrated

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Noone wrote about Ons Jabeur????
She is good but doesn't really have weapons IMO
She hasn't really had any good results except on clay, and even they have been few and far-between

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post #43 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 10:18 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

If McHale, Stephens, Robson and Watson could get far in Slams, the WTA would be safe for a while.

Most of its market is in the Western world and it's much easier to root for Western girls than random Eastern Europeans.
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post #44 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 23rd, 2012, 11:17 PM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

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If McHale, Stephens, Robson and Watson could get far in Slams, the WTA would be safe for a while.

Most of its market is in the Western world and it's much easier to root for Western girls than random Eastern Europeans.
Truth hurts but it's the reality.
Morrissey has been pretty much saying the same thing but for some reason he gets excoriated for it.

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post #45 of 443 (permalink) Old Jul 24th, 2012, 05:13 AM
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Re: Is the 1993-1996 generation about to breakthrough?

What breakthrough?
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