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post #241 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 04:56 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Originally Posted by theFutureisNow View Post
You should hedge big.

Djokovic always beats Nadal.
Wouldn't he be fairly low odds though ($1.40ish?), would it be worth it?
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post #242 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 05:18 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Originally Posted by Floor View Post
Wouldn't he be fairly low odds though ($1.40ish?), would it be worth it?
Let's suppose the EV from the Sharapova/Azarenka part of the bet is 2500.

I think that the chances of Djokovic winning is at least 80%. Do you really want to have an 80% chance of getting nothing?

Say you could find a 1.40/1 bet for Novak. If you bet 2000 on that then you get $500 dollars guaranteed, with an 80% chance at $800.

Assuming that these odds are anywhere close then I think the hedge option would be preferred by most people that don't have an extreme preference for risk.

}{KVITOVA}{MUGURUZA}{SHARAPOVA}{ MLADENOVIC}{LISICKI }{
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post #243 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 05:23 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Ok cheers, hopefully Muzza can somehow win tonight
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post #244 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 09:01 AM Thread Starter
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Won 70 on Kuznetsova/Zvonareva + Ito+Sugita
Betted 10 on Murray to win @ 40
Betted 100 on Djokovic to win 30
Betted 20 on Djokovic + a itf girl to win 45
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post #245 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 09:49 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Nadal @ 2.25.
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Originally Posted by rrfnpump View Post
You were saying?

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post #246 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:10 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

just took Nole @ 2,50
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post #247 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:10 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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You were saying?
Just ing at the 'experts' giving those bets. It was NID that Nadal would win. Safe money.

Taking Azarenka tomorrow 2-1.

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post #248 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:28 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Just ing at the 'experts' giving those bets. It was NID that Nadal would win. Safe money.
Sorry. I thought you were laughing at me making a stupid bet rather than at the ludicrous odds.

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post #249 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:44 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Sorry. I thought you were laughing at me making a stupid bet rather than at the ludicrous odds.
No. Laughing at the hilarious odds of Nadal. Acting like in men's tennis there are still surprises possible. The Grand Slams these days are so predictable way before its start. And bookies dont seem to realize. Good for us.

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post #250 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:53 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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SF: Djokovic d. Murray


The score right now hints that it's not a given yet. Depends on the next game.

Kvitova * Vaidisova * Garcia * Robson


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post #251 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:55 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

i think Nadal will win it no matter what
Nole wake up
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post #252 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:56 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

TB
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post #253 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:07 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

I think Mugray still won't win this
I might bet some huge money on Djoko now
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post #254 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:08 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Nole at 2.45
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post #255 of 5199 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:09 AM
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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I think Mugray still won't win this
I might bet some huge money on Djoko now
i doubt it
Murray still won this set altough broken when up a break,saved 3 SPs and broken while serving for it so no way he will lose now
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