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post #1 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:29 PM Thread Starter
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2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

2012 Australian Open Favorites: Serena Williams Shortest Betting Odds
From Bleacher Report

The 2012 Australian Open draws will be released on January 13, 2012 and at that time tennis fans will assess the chances of their favorite players.

At present Serena Williams is the outright favorite to win the title in the betting markets as the American has won the title at Melbourne Park five times, a total that makes the Aussie her best Grand Slam event in terms of total singles titles.

However, for the 2012 Aussie, Williams is not a crushing favorite with the sports punters at this point, perhaps due to the fact that she has not consolidated her comeback from her post-Wimbledon 2010 injury with a title in a major. Williams fell in the fourth round of Wimbledon 2011 to Marion Bartoli and the American also fell short of winning the US Open title this past fall as she lost to maiden Grand Slam titlist Samantha Stosur.

You have to think that there is more Grand Slam singles glory in the future for Williams but whether that will be sooner or later remains to be seen.

Here are the betting odds for the top seven favorites for the 2012 Australian Open at this point:

Serena Williams: +275 (11/4) Sportingbet
Petra Kvitova: +400 (4/1) Paddy Power
Victoria Azarenka: +900 (9/1) Victor Chandler
Samantha Stosur: +1200 (12/1) Victor Chandler
Caroline Wozniacki: +1400 (14/1) Boylesports
Kim Clijsters: +1400 (14/1) William Hill
Maria Sharapova: +1600 (16/1) Victor Chandler

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post #2 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:30 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

From a punter's POV, Wozniacki is a good bet


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post #3 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:40 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

stosur

Alize Cornet- Agi Radwanska- Caro Wozniacki

Slava Shvedova- Bel Bencic- Alize Lim
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post #4 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:42 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Here's an in-depth analysis for the betting odds by Shane Lambert
(Bleacher Report)

Having not seen Clijsters play since Toronto it is hard to have confidence in the Belgian to win a Grand Slam as her ranking has dropped. The question mark isn't regarding her talent but just what to expect from her as she returns from injury after a very long layoff.

Sharapova has been fairly quiet since winning in Cincinnati and she has been disappointing in Melbourne for each of the last two seasons.

Sharapova lost to Maria Kirilenko at the 2010 Australian Open in the first round and the former world No. 1 could not defeat Andrea Petkovic in the fourth round this past season. The time off since withdrawing from the WTA championships certainly will have helped her recover from her ankle injury (although she has pulled out of WTA Brisbane), but with the disappointments from the last two seasons, it's hard to picture the Russian making the semifinals without a kind draw.

Besides Williams, Clijsters and Sharapova, none of the other players in the above list have ever made the final at Melbourne Park.

Kvitova's best performance was last season as she made the quarterfinal at the Australian Open. Her status as second favorite is no doubt a reflection of her title at Wimbledon and her play at the end of the 2011 season. Kvitova won the WTA Tour championship on the hard court surface in November and she has the tennis world's full attention right now. Kvitova is capable of playing anyone toe-to-toe and a Williams-Kvitova final could be a battle for the ages, a changing-of-the-guard type match.

Azarenka's deepest run at the Aussie came in 2010 when she lost to Williams in the quarters, a match the Belarusian had a huge lead in. As of yet, Azarenka has failed to make it to any Grand Slam final, the only player in the above list with that tag. While that does make her position as third favorite questionable, Azarenka did win two hard court titles in 2011. Additionally, she gave Kvitova a serious challenge in the championship match at the Tour Finals and that appears to have won her some backers.

However, the bottom line with Azarenka, in my view, is that her Slam results are worse than those of all her main competitors. The Belarusian only has a semifinal result from Wimbledon 2011 peaking through as a bright light in majors while everyone else in the above list has a much more impressive resume.

Stosur has done very little at Melbourne Park to warrant her status as fourth favorite, as her best results are fourth-round appearances in 2006 and 2010 respectively. She is the top-ranked Australian on tour but you have to wonder if that will hurt her more than help her at her country's biggest tennis tournament. As both the reigning US Open champion and the top-ranked Australian player, Stosur should be under more of a spotlight at Melbourne Park than she's ever been under before.

While she has proven that she can win seven matches in a slam, one fact that can't be ignored with Stosur is that she rarely finishes a tournament with such form as the form she displayed at the end of the 2011 US Open.

Stosur only won that one title last season, whether in WTA events or Grand Slam events. Despite being a mainstay in the top 20 since her run at the 2009 French Open, Stosur still only has three career titles to her credit. That is a piddly total for such a highly-ranked player and it proves that her best tennis generally abandons her when the pressure gets pumped up, with only the occasional counterexample.

Wozniacki is an interesting player and one that might be a little underrated in the above list. Many have been quick to argue that her No. 1 ranking remains unconsolidated without at least one Grand Slam title. However, even if that position is taken to be correct, a position that discounts the fact that the top ranking is about consistency as opposed to isolated tournament efforts,*Wozniacki's position as fifth favorite seems to underrate the Dane.

Wozniacki did make the semifinals last season, where she had Na Li against the ropes before she missed a match point in the second set before losing in three.

[]Points and counterpoints weighted, it's my opinion that the true top-seven favorites are as follows:

Petra Kvitova
Serena Williams
Caroline Wozniacki
Victoria Azarenka
Agniezska Radwanska
Maria Sharapova
Samantha Stosur


Radwanska, like Wozniacki, has been underrated as well, although the Polish player appears to be off a lot of fans' radars entirely. Keep in mind that Radwanska did make the quarters of the Aussie last season for the second time in her career, she picked up three hard court titles in the second half of 2011 (Carlsbad, Tokyo, and Beijing) and still just 22 years old, so you have to expect continued improvements from the Polish player.

In my opinion, a quarterfinal appearance is hers to lose provided she does not get a terrible draw and she has an outside chance at a semifinal spot.

In conclusion, the 2012 Australian Open will do five things in my opinion:

It promises to send last year's finalists, Kim Clijsters and Na Li, tumbling down the rankings, perhaps for good.*
It promises to show us what Serena Williams can do against increasingly younger and improving competition
It promises to make Petra Kvitova the top-ranked player in the world even if she does not win the title outright
It will show that Stosur is just a one-Slam wonder when it comes to the hard courts.*
And it will give current world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki a chance to silence her critics—something she has a reasonable chance of doing based on her play at the tournament last season.

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post #5 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:46 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Stefwhit View Post
Here's an in-depth analysis for the betting odds by Shane Lambert
(Bleacher Report)

Having not seen Clijsters play since Toronto it is hard to have confidence in the Belgian to win a Grand Slam as her ranking has dropped. The question mark isn't regarding her talent but just what to expect from her as she returns from injury after a very long layoff.

Sharapova has been fairly quiet since winning in Cincinnati and she has been disappointing in Melbourne for each of the last two seasons.

Sharapova lost to Maria Kirilenko at the 2010 Australian Open in the first round and the former world No. 1 could not defeat Andrea Petkovic in the fourth round this past season. The time off since withdrawing from the WTA championships certainly will have helped her recover from her ankle injury (although she has pulled out of WTA Brisbane), but with the disappointments from the last two seasons, it's hard to picture the Russian making the semifinals without a kind draw.

Besides Williams, Clijsters and Sharapova, none of the other players in the above list have ever made the final at Melbourne Park.

Kvitova's best performance was last season as she made the quarterfinal at the Australian Open. Her status as second favorite is no doubt a reflection of her title at Wimbledon and her play at the end of the 2011 season. Kvitova won the WTA Tour championship on the hard court surface in November and she has the tennis world's full attention right now. Kvitova is capable of playing anyone toe-to-toe and a Williams-Kvitova final could be a battle for the ages, a changing-of-the-guard type match.

Azarenka's deepest run at the Aussie came in 2010 when she lost to Williams in the quarters, a match the Belarusian had a huge lead in. As of yet, Azarenka has failed to make it to any Grand Slam final, the only player in the above list with that tag. While that does make her position as third favorite questionable, Azarenka did win two hard court titles in 2011. Additionally, she gave Kvitova a serious challenge in the championship match at the Tour Finals and that appears to have won her some backers.

However, the bottom line with Azarenka, in my view, is that her Slam results are worse than those of all her main competitors. The Belarusian only has a semifinal result from Wimbledon 2011 peaking through as a bright light in majors while everyone else in the above list has a much more impressive resume.

Stosur has done very little at Melbourne Park to warrant her status as fourth favorite, as her best results are fourth-round appearances in 2006 and 2010 respectively. She is the top-ranked Australian on tour but you have to wonder if that will hurt her more than help her at her country's biggest tennis tournament. As both the reigning US Open champion and the top-ranked Australian player, Stosur should be under more of a spotlight at Melbourne Park than she's ever been under before.

While she has proven that she can win seven matches in a slam, one fact that can't be ignored with Stosur is that she rarely finishes a tournament with such form as the form she displayed at the end of the 2011 US Open.

Stosur only won that one title last season, whether in WTA events or Grand Slam events. Despite being a mainstay in the top 20 since her run at the 2009 French Open, Stosur still only has three career titles to her credit. That is a piddly total for such a highly-ranked player and it proves that her best tennis generally abandons her when the pressure gets pumped up, with only the occasional counterexample.

Wozniacki is an interesting player and one that might be a little underrated in the above list. Many have been quick to argue that her No. 1 ranking remains unconsolidated without at least one Grand Slam title. However, even if that position is taken to be correct, a position that discounts the fact that the top ranking is about consistency as opposed to isolated tournament efforts,*Wozniacki's position as fifth favorite seems to underrate the Dane.

Wozniacki did make the semifinals last season, where she had Na Li against the ropes before she missed a match point in the second set before losing in three.

[b]Points and counterpoints weighted, it's my opinion that the true top-seven favorites are as follows:

Petra Kvitova
Serena Williams
Caroline Wozniacki
Victoria Azarenka
Agniezska Radwanska
Maria Sharapova
Samantha Stosur[\b]

Radwanska, like Wozniacki, has been underrated as well, although the Polish player appears to be off a lot of fans' radars entirely. Keep in mind that Radwanska did make the quarters of the Aussie last season for the second time in her career, she picked up three hard court titles in the second half of 2011 (Carlsbad, Tokyo, and Beijing) and still just 22 years old, so you have to expect continued improvements from the Polish player.

In my opinion, a quarterfinal appearance is hers to lose provided she does not get a terrible draw and she has an outside chance at a semifinal spot.

In conclusion, the 2012 Australian Open will do five things in my opinion:

It promises to send last year's finalists, Kim Clijsters and Na Li, tumbling down the rankings, perhaps for good.*
It promises to show us what Serena Williams can do against increasingly younger and improving competition
It promises to make Petra Kvitova the top-ranked player in the world even if she does not win the title outright
It will show that Stosur is just a one-Slam wonder when it comes to the hard courts.*
And it will give current world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki a chance to silence her critics—something she has a reasonable chance of doing based on her play at the tournament last season.
Mmmmhh. Interesting.

Shane Lambert, is actually one of those people that picked Kvitova to win Wimbledon before it started. But his website affiliation was from Crunch Sports Betting Service.

So maybe this was republished on Bleacher Report?
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post #6 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:55 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Since it's still early expect the betting odds to keep changing especially after the first couple of event have played out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Excelscior View Post
Mmmmhh. Interesting.

Shane Lambert, is actually one of those people that picked Kvitova to win Wimbledon before it started. But his website affiliation was from Crunch Sports Betting Service.

So maybe this was republished on Bleacher Report?
It's actually from my tennis app on my iPad and I have noticed most stories are republished. So yeah I'm sure it was republished

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post #7 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 09:58 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Stefwhit View Post
Since it's still early expect the betting odds to keep changing especially after the first couple of event have played out.



It's actually from my tennis app on my iPad and I have noticed most stories are republished. So yeah I'm sure it was republished
OK. Cool.

That's what I figured.

I was just trying to do you a favor. Cause no here respects Bleacher Report (though you weren't the OP using it), it seems. And someone may of pointed that out. But like I said, you weren't the OP, so maybe no one would of even noticed.
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post #8 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:03 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

How about Li? No one giving her a chance to go one better this time around? Despite her poor results since RG, it seems way more likely than Radwanska winning a slam.
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post #9 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:24 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Stefwhit View Post
Here's an in-depth analysis for the betting odds by Shane Lambert
(Bleacher Report)

Having not seen Clijsters play since Toronto it is hard to have confidence in the Belgian to win a Grand Slam as her ranking has dropped. The question mark isn't regarding her talent but just what to expect from her as she returns from injury after a very long layoff.

......
......

[]Points and counterpoints weighted, it's my opinion that the true top-seven favorites are as follows:

Petra Kvitova
Serena Williams
Caroline Wozniacki
Victoria Azarenka
Agniezska Radwanska
Maria Sharapova
Samantha Stosur

......
......

In my opinion, a quarterfinal appearance is hers to lose provided she does not get a terrible draw and she has an outside chance at a semifinal spot.

In conclusion, the 2012 Australian Open will do five things in my opinion:

It promises to send last year's finalists, Kim Clijsters and Na Li, tumbling down the rankings, perhaps for good.*
It promises to show us what Serena Williams can do against increasingly younger and improving competition
It promises to make Petra Kvitova the top-ranked player in the world even if she does not win the title outright
It will show that Stosur is just a one-Slam wonder when it comes to the hard courts.*
And it will give current world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki a chance to silence her critics—something she has a reasonable chance of doing based on her play at the tournament last season.
I think Shane Lambert is very dismissive of Kim. His assessment of Kim was fairly brief and he states it isn't her talent but because she's been out for a long time. But then he says AO will send her tumbling down the rankings perhaps for good.

He doesn't even list her at #7 or even add her as #8 for AO.

Caroline Wozniacki

Chris Evert, Steffi Graf, Kim Clijsters
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post #10 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:30 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

I'd agree with those three as favorites and I'd put Clijsters as #4.
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post #11 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:30 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

we will all know more in brisbane and sydney. i guess the question mark over kim is will she stay injury free? she was set to play the us open this year before the injury in toronto finished her year. if she plays brisbane and makes semis of better i expect her to end up as one of the top 3 favourites with the bookies. right now it is a wait and see thing.

as for the rest serena goes without saying, but vika is no way a favourite over most of the top 10, i see caro winning on the slow-ish hardcourts of the oz open before vika ever does.

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post #12 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:36 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

It's funny; Serena remained the same, and everyone else's odds seemed to grow lower/better.

Petra's actually down to 3:1 (or 7:2) now.
Azarenka's at 7
Stosur's at 9
Wozniaki, Sharapova and Clijsters are all at 12

Obviously these things will fluctuate. But that's what they are at the moment.

Obviously, Shane's outlook is a little different than these odds. Lol
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post #13 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:38 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy01 View Post
we will all know more in brisbane and sydney. i guess the question mark over kim is will she stay injury free? she was set to play the us open this year before the injury in toronto finished her year. if she plays brisbane and makes semis of better i expect her to end up as one of the top 3 favourites with the bookies. right now it is a wait and see thing.

as for the rest serena goes without saying, but vika is no way a favourite over most of the top 10, i see caro winning on the slow-ish hardcourts of the oz open before vika ever does.
Well, he did separate the REAL odds, from his ACTUAL picks and opinions. And he does have Wozniaki a better pick than Azarenka.

Obviously, play in the warm up tournaments can alter these perceptions.
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post #14 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:50 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy01 View Post
we will all know more in brisbane and sydney. i guess the question mark over kim is will she stay injury free? she was set to play the us open this year before the injury in toronto finished her year. if she plays brisbane and makes semis of better i expect her to end up as one of the top 3 favourites with the bookies. right now it is a wait and see thing.

as for the rest serena goes without saying, but vika is no way a favourite over most of the top 10, i see caro winning on the slow-ish hardcourts of the oz open before vika ever does.
Let's consider Azarenka's play at the last three very meaningful tournaments:
Wimbledon- tough 3-set loss to eventual champion Kvitova
US Open- tough 2-set loss to eventual finalist Serena
YEC- tough 3-set loss in final to Kvitova

Compare to Wozniacki.

Yes, Aza's odds should be higher of winning this one.
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post #15 of 51 (permalink) Old Dec 27th, 2011, 10:52 PM
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Re: 2012 Betting Odds (Oz): Serena, Kvitova, Azarenka lead

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