Re: Bigger gap on clay- Serena vs Henin or Federer vs Nadal
Federer was far luckier at the 2009 French then Serena was at the 2002 French. Henin was mentaly fragile, not in her prime physically or technically either, and had gone 1-1 vs Serena on clay. She was at best 45% likely to beat Serena even if they met in the quarters that year (although I agree no way she would have lost to either Capriati or Venus if she did, barring a major 02 Charleston level choke). A much stronger Henin barely Serena the next year. The only match she came close to losing was the semifinal to Capriati. Federer in 2009, like all years, had roughly 0% chance to beat Nadal if they met at Roland Garros, or maybe 5% that year since Nadal was legitimately injured IMO. He nearly lost to Haas and Del Potro, probably should have lost both matches.