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post #1 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 12:07 AM Thread Starter
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An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

There are two 30 year olds in the top ten, and only one teenager in the top 32. A very heavy reversal from ten years ago. Seven of the top ten are 25 or older. But ... 16 of the top 32 are 23 or younger. Good? Bad?

Either way, I think it's deliberate. Before the AER, the average WTA player retired at 25. The idea wbeing it was to keep players from burning out, so they'd have longer careers. Now, every single player who'd be seeded in a slam today played a schedule within AER limits as a teen. (I'm not counting Dementieva and Henin, but I just looked up Henin, and her schedule as a teen was well within AER limits.)

Lok at the result. Half of the best players on the tour are over-25, instead of being retired.

You can argue whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's not an accident.

The Top Ten

.. .. XX .. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. XX
.. XX XX .. .. .. XX XX XX XX .. XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

The Top Twenty

.. .. .. .. XX .. .. XX .. XX .. ..
.. XX XX .. XX .. XX XX .. XX .. XX
XX XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX XX XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

The Top Thirty-Two

.. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. XX .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. XX XX .. XX .. ..
.. XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX .. XX
XX XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX XX XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

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post #2 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 12:14 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

There's definately a change. As recently as 2004, two teens won majors.
Now no teen is in the top 30.
I think there's much more depth.
Look at this AO. Top quarter had Caro, Fran, Justine, Sveta.
There's no easy section in that quarter.
2nd quarter had Venus, Li, Vika, Maria, Petkovic.

There's no soft section to sneak thru in modern draws

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post #3 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 12:47 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
There's definately a change. As recently as 2004, two teens won majors.
Now no teen is in the top 30.
I think there's much more depth.
Look at this AO. Top quarter had Caro, Fran, Justine, Sveta.
There's no easy section in that quarter.
2nd quarter had Venus, Li, Vika, Maria, Petkovic.

There's no soft section to sneak thru in modern draws
Well, Sharapova had to beat Davenport and Serena to "sneak thru" and win her Slam.

The thing is, the Belgians and the Williams Sisters retired/were injuried at the same time while the in-between generation (Golovin, Vaidisova, Krajicek) struggled a lot and the youngers girls weren't ready to cope with the pressure and the expectations which sent them into some ugly slumps.

It created a huge mess as the worst case scenario happened.
There's like a 10 years gap between the Old Guard and the New Generation as the In-Between failed to live up to their potential.
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post #4 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 12:52 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Sharapova started against a qualifier then Anne K, a WC. You're talking about the last 2 rounds, and Serena was not healthy. Lindsay got screwed by the rain up a set & a break. Still a great effort for a 17 year old, but easier early 2 rounds. Things broke right and Maria took advantage of it. Same for Sveta in NY

The inbetween generation is Sveta, Jelena, Maria, Vera. Thats in between 30 and 20

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post #5 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 01:41 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volcana View Post
There are two 30 year olds in the top ten, and only one teenager in the top 32. A very heavy reversal from ten years ago. Seven of the top ten are 25 or older. But ... 16 of the top 32 are 23 or younger. Good? Bad?

Either way, I think it's deliberate. Before the AER, the average WTA player retired at 25. The idea wbeing it was to keep players from burning out, so they'd have longer careers. Now, every single player who'd be seeded in a slam today played a schedule within AER limits as a teen. (I'm not counting Dementieva and Henin, but I just looked up Henin, and her schedule as a teen was well within AER limits.)

Lok at the result. Half of the best players on the tour are over-25, instead of being retired.

You can argue whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's not an accident.

The Top Ten

.. .. XX .. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. XX
.. XX XX .. .. .. XX XX XX XX .. XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

The Top Twenty

.. .. .. .. XX .. .. XX .. XX .. ..
.. XX XX .. XX .. XX XX .. XX .. XX
XX XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX XX XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

The Top Thirty-Two

.. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. .. .. .. XX .. ..
.. .. XX .. XX .. XX XX .. XX .. ..
.. XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX .. XX
XX XX XX .. XX .. XX XX XX XX XX XX
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Not convinced there's any relationship. 2000 is a changing of the guard time - if you looked back into the nineties the top 10 is almost certainly older. The top 10 players of 1990 to 2000 certainly didn't have short careers pre-AER limits either.
The simpler explanation of why the current top 10 is older, and why there are older players on the tour is that 2000 had jsut seen a generation go with Graf, there's now more incentive to stay, fewer good people coming up and making it and less competition.

Indeed you could argue that the effect of the AER regime has been to create players with too little match experience to compete and that the current top 10 is actually the result of many newcomers failing to stay at the top if they do make it , a missing generation of players from Dokic to Lucic who might otherwise make the top of the game now even older and a crop of early retirees from Hingis to Myskina and an on/off Kim and Justine. There seems more missing talent from the top 10 since the AER rules changed than there was before it.
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post #6 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 01:44 AM Thread Starter
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

The cohort born between 1979 and 1983 had a LOT of good players. Serena, Venus, Henin, Hingis, Clijsters, Mauresmo. It actually makes you realize that Myskina and Schiavone were incredibly unlucky in the timing of their birth. If you aren't one of the five best players in a birth grouping, you don't usually get a slam in tennis.

If you look at the 'in-between', they have six slams (Sharapova, Kuznetsova, Ivanovic) and they're all still active. That age group could still wind up winning a proportional number of slams. Especially giventhe indication that players will be successful to older ages.

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post #7 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 01:55 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

You have to look at the game too. It's become more physical. And a lot more mental-influenced as well. And they travel more, with less cohesive tour calendars.

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post #8 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 02:00 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

We have to see where these young players are in 10 years.
I think Caroline is playing well early in this SF
Give them until age 25 or so before we make definitive judgements

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post #9 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 02:09 AM Thread Starter
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Quote:
Originally Posted by fammmmedspin View Post
Not convinced there's any relationship. 2000 is a changing of the guard time - if you looked back into the nineties the top 10 is almost certainly older.
They are not

Quote:
Originally Posted by fammmmedspin View Post
The top 10 players of 1990 to 2000 certainly didn't have short careers pre-AER limits either.
Given that the WTA concerns itself with ALL the players, not just the top ten, I have to conceded that possibility.

I plan to run the relevant ages and check. If you want to do it first,here's a useful link.

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post #10 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 27th, 2011, 02:13 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Somebody should post similar charts for 10 and 20 years ago for comparison. Would be interesting to see the difference, which I expect would be significant.

Here's the year-end rankings for 2000 and 1990 if anyone wants to make a graph comparing them to now:

http://www.wtatour.com/SEWTATour-Arc...meric_2000.pdf
http://www.wtatour.com/SEWTATour-Arc...meric_1990.pdf

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post #11 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 28th, 2011, 03:20 AM Thread Starter
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Quote:
Originally Posted by fammmmedspin View Post
Not convinced there's any relationship. 2000 is a changing of the guard time - if you looked back into the nineties the top 10 is almost certainly older.
Actually, it's younger. Check 1995 (And of course, withing the next five years come Hingis, Williams2X, Kournikova, Mauresmo, Clijsters, Henin, Dementieva .... so the top ten never gets much older.


2010

.. .. .. XX .. .. .. .. XX .. .. .. XX
.. .. XX XX .. .. .. XX XX XX XX .. XX
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

1995

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. XX .. .. .. XX XX XX .. .. .. ..
XX .. XX XX .. XX XX XX XX .. .. .. ..
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30


26 - 02 Oct, 69 Novotna
26 - Jun 14, 69 Graf
25 - 16 May, 70 Sabatini
25 - 28 Sep, 70 Date
24 - Dec 18, 71 ASV
24 - 19 Aug, 71 Fernandez, M J
23 - 16 Apr, 72 Conchi
21 - 04 Dec, 74 Huber
20 - 15 Jan, 75 Pierce
20 - Apr 01, 75 Maleeva. Magdalena
18 - Aug 12, 77 Majoli

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Last edited by Volcana; Jan 28th, 2011 at 03:27 AM.
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post #12 of 12 (permalink) Old Jan 28th, 2011, 09:08 AM
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Re: An age analysis of the players who would be seeded in a slam today

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony. View Post
You have to look at the game too. It's become more physical. And a lot more mental-influenced as well. And they travel more, with less cohesive tour calendars.
this.
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