How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw match - TennisForum.com

 
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post #1 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 03:25 AM Thread Starter
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How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw match

This year's Wimbledon qualifiers (in bold) are

Kurumi Nara vs Mariana Duque-Marino
Mirjana Lucic vs Victoria Azarenka
Monica Niculescu vs Gisela Dulko
Romina Oprandi vs Heather Watson
Kaia Kanepi vs Sammy Stosur
Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs Karolina Sprem
Shenay Perry vs Anastasia Yakimova
Anastasia Yakimova vs Shenay Perry
Andrea Hlavakova vs Noppawan Lercheewakarn
Nuria Llagostera Vives vs Vera Zvonereva
Eleni Daniilidou vs Aleksandra Wozniak
Greta Arn vs Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez

How would you rate their chances of winning their 1st match in the main draw?

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post #2 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 03:28 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Kurumi Nara 70% chance of winning
Mirjana Lucic 10% chance of winning
Monica Niculescu 50% chance of winning
Romina Oprandi 50% chance of winning
Kaia Kanepi 25% chance of winning
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 50% chance of winning
Shenay Perry 50% chance of winning
Andrea Hlavakova 60% chance of winning
Nuria Llagostera Vives 15% chance of winning
Eleni Daniilidou 75% chance of winning (I'm most confident in her)
Greta Arn 30% chance of winning

Pretty good odds, in my opinion, for a set of qualifiers.
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post #3 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 03:29 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Daniilidou, Nara, Hlavakova should win.

Mattek-Sands/Sprem is 50-50.

Lucic and Kanepi wins wouldn't surprise me.

Arn has very little chance.
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post #4 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 03:57 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

For me I would rate them in order of most likely to least likely to qualify as

Andrea Hlavakova - I'd give her a very good chance. She has played excellent in the qualies and Noppawan although a very good junior with a good record of success on grass she has yet to established herself in at pro level. 75%
Kurumi Nara - Kurumi got almost certainly the easiest draw of the winning qualifiers. This looks very winnable. 70%
Shenay Perry - Shenay played well in qualifying but still doesn't look to be back to anything like her best. I would still give her the edge over fellow qualifier Yakimova. 60%
Eleni Daniilidou - Eleni played outstanding in qualifying but she does have an opponent who has had solid results on grass the last couple of years. This match could go either way. 50%
Romina Oprandi - Romina draw a WC in Heather Watson. But Watson has played very well of late and she will have the support of the British public too. I would say Romina is a slight underdog here. 45%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands - Bethanie has been very good on grass in the past but while she qualified here she wasn't entirely convincing doing so. And Sprem has had a couple of good wins on grass so far this year and came close against Petrova too. I'd make Bethanie a slight underdog here. 45%
Anastasia Yakimova - Nastya played well in qualifying but her opponent who also qualified Perry does have a better pedigree on grass than her. I still think she is in with a 40% chance.
Kaia Kanepi - Probably only Lucic was more impressive in qualifying than Kaia, but she has a very formidable opponent in Stosur. It has been suggested by some that Stosur hasn't been that impressive this week but that is of course just relative to her ranking. She still made the semis of Eastbourne which isn't bad. I'd give Kaia a solid 35% chance at a win but no more.
Monica Niculescu - Tough draw for Monica but she did beat Dulko last year on hard. And which Dulko is an upset specialist she is also prone at times to being upset herself. Monica played near the top of her game in qualifying and is in with a 30% shot.
Mirjana Lucic - Mirjana is playing absolutely ferocious overpowering tennis. But she has drawn a player in Azarenka who also playing dominant tennis and at a higher level. Simply Mirjana could hardly have gotten a worse draw than this, aside from the Williams sisters. I can't give Mirjana better than a 25% chance despite how well she is playing.
Nuria Llagostera Vives - Nuria's opponent Zveronera is no where near her best but somehow I do find it hard to see the plucky Spanish girl winning this match. 20%
Greta Arn - Greta probably had the least impressive run of any of the qualifiers and she has one of the very toughest opponents Martinez Sanchez. I see very little chance for Greta at all unless Martinez Sanchez's neck acts up as it did at RG. 10%


Last edited by Shvedbarilescu; Jun 19th, 2010 at 04:03 AM.
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post #5 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 04:08 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

More likely to win: Nara,Mattek-Sands,Yakimova,Kanepi,Hlavackova,Oprandi
Least likely to win: Definitely Niculescu,Lucic, Arn,Daniliidou, NLV, and Perry

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post #6 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 04:29 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Kurumi Nara 50%
Mirjana Lucic 25%
Monica Niculescu 25%
Romina Oprandi 40%
Kaia Kanepi 60%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 50%
Shenay Perry 40%
Anastasia Yakimova 60%
Andrea Hlavakova 60%
Nuria Llagostera Vives 5%
Eleni Daniilidou 85%
Greta Arn 15%

In my opinion
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post #7 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 04:35 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Nara, Perry, Hlavakova, and Daniilidou will win, IMO
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post #8 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 04:38 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Kurumi Nara 51% - it could be very close but I belive she'll come through.
Mirjana Lucic 10% - she won't win, but it could go to three sets or two tight sets.
Monica Niculescu 20% - Upset Dulko is waiting for Penetta in 2r.
Romina Oprandi 50% - she's probabably the slight underdog, but Watson is a real question mark.
Kaia Kanepi 70% - I'd give her a really good chance.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 65% - Grass is a good surface for Beth.
Shenay Perry 55% - slight edge over Yakimova.
Andrea Hlavakova 45% - Noppawan has a good chance.
Nuria Llagostera Vives 10% - small chance of an upset here, but I don't see it happening.
Eleni Daniilidou 80% - Eleni has a real chance of winning here.
Greta Arn 5% - I don't see it happening.

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post #9 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 04:40 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

It is funny to think that Nuria's best win ever was her win over #11 ranked Zvonareva in Miami a few years ago

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post #10 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 05:45 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Queen Bethanie, Eleni, Naynay and Kanepi hopefully will come through.

I could give a crap about the rest.

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post #11 of 11 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2010, 06:03 AM
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Re: How do you rate this year's Wimbledon qualifiers chances of winning a main draw m

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shvedbarilescu View Post
For me I would rate them in order of most likely to least likely to qualify as

Andrea Hlavakova - I'd give her a very good chance. She has played excellent in the qualies and Noppawan although a very good junior with a good record of success on grass she has yet to established herself in at pro level. 75%
Kurumi Nara - Kurumi got almost certainly the easiest draw of the winning qualifiers. This looks very winnable. 70%
Shenay Perry - Shenay played well in qualifying but still doesn't look to be back to anything like her best. I would still give her the edge over fellow qualifier Yakimova. 60%
Eleni Daniilidou - Eleni played outstanding in qualifying but she does have an opponent who has had solid results on grass the last couple of years. This match could go either way. 50%
Romina Oprandi - Romina draw a WC in Heather Watson. But Watson has played very well of late and she will have the support of the British public too. I would say Romina is a slight underdog here. 45%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands - Bethanie has been very good on grass in the past but while she qualified here she wasn't entirely convincing doing so. And Sprem has had a couple of good wins on grass so far this year and came close against Petrova too. I'd make Bethanie a slight underdog here. 45%
Anastasia Yakimova - Nastya played well in qualifying but her opponent who also qualified Perry does have a better pedigree on grass than her. I still think she is in with a 40% chance.
Kaia Kanepi - Probably only Lucic was more impressive in qualifying than Kaia, but she has a very formidable opponent in Stosur. It has been suggested by some that Stosur hasn't been that impressive this week but that is of course just relative to her ranking. She still made the semis of Eastbourne which isn't bad. I'd give Kaia a solid 35% chance at a win but no more.
Monica Niculescu - Tough draw for Monica but she did beat Dulko last year on hard. And which Dulko is an upset specialist she is also prone at times to being upset herself. Monica played near the top of her game in qualifying and is in with a 30% shot.
Mirjana Lucic - Mirjana is playing absolutely ferocious overpowering tennis. But she has drawn a player in Azarenka who also playing dominant tennis and at a higher level. Simply Mirjana could hardly have gotten a worse draw than this, aside from the Williams sisters. I can't give Mirjana better than a 25% chance despite how well she is playing.
Nuria Llagostera Vives - Nuria's opponent Zveronera is no where near her best but somehow I do find it hard to see the plucky Spanish girl winning this match. 20%
Greta Arn - Greta probably had the least impressive run of any of the qualifiers and she has one of the very toughest opponents Martinez Sanchez. I see very little chance for Greta at all unless Martinez Sanchez's neck acts up as it did at RG. 10%
Pretty fair assessment. I'd give Kanepi a somewhat better chance as she really impressed me in qualifying (surprised me as I remember watching her lose to Martina Mueller on grass a few years ago!) I'd be surprised if Perry didn't win. I thought she played very well against Beltrame, her serve in particular was excellent.

The player I'd really like to see win a match is Kurumi Nara, and agree she's got very good chances.
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