Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact) - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 07:40 PM Thread Starter
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Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

In january during Australian Open i have here research about new Plexicushion surface which they use since this season and compare official tournament stats with previous at Rebound Ace, and also with other slams. Today i doing same thing to check this summer popular theory about "New" Wimbledon Grass and like in Melbourne case - no sensational results... it's all pretty same.


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in mans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
Code:
MANS COMPETITION        Wi/08  Wi/07 USO/07  AO/08  RG/08
Matches Played            127    126    127    127    127
5 Set Matches              23     22     21     21     20
4 Set Matches              40     30     37     34     39
3 Set Matches              58     74     64     70     67
Sets Played               460    452    453    455    459
Tie Breaks Played          92     94     79     78     69
Total Games              4624   4554   4423   4400   4403
Winners                  9772   9908   6415   5809   5046
Return Games Won          760    772    963    991   1021
Server Points Won       18737  18409  17326  17224  17400
Unforced Errors          5917   6274   5844   5809       
Total Points            28449  28042  27413  27632  28050
First Serves In         17620  17992  16450  17003  17631
% 1st Serves In          61.9   64.2     60   61.5   62.9
Total Aces               2565   2399   2219   1963   1656
Total Double Faults       988    831   1044    906    758
1st Serve Pts Won       13087  13126  11762  11878  12094
% 1st Srv Pts Won        74.3     73   71.5   69.9   68.6
% 2nd Srv Pts Won        52.2   52.6   50.8   50.3   50.9


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in womans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
Code:
WOMANS COMPETITION      Wi/08  Wi/07 USO/07  AO/08  RG/08
Matches Played            126    127    127    127    127
3 Set Matches              44     36     25     36     43
2 Set Matches              82     91    102     90     84
Sets Played               296    290    279    288    297
Tie Breaks Played          34     22     17     23     26
Total Games              2838   2637   2463   2687   2690
Winners                  5545   5404   3061   3228   2141
Return Games Won          890    813    857   1022   1020
Server Points Won       10776   9939   9132   9755   9930
Unforced Errors          4985   5059   4014   4732       
Total Points            18585  17091  16176  17761  18095
First Serves In         11735  10889   9972  11162  11603
% 1st Serves In          63.1   63.7   61.6   62.8   64.1
Total Aces                686    727    582    534    515
Total Double Faults       884    828    803    909    831
1st Serve Pts Won        7585   7077   6278   6857   7084
% 1st Srv Pts Won        64.6     65     63   61.4   61.1
% 2nd Srv Pts Won        46.6   46.1     46   43.9   43.8

Speed/Bounces most related stats (in percentages) about court surface:
Code:
ATP GS tournaments
MANS COMPETITION      Wi/08    Wi/07  USO/07   AO/08   RG/08
Return Games Won      16.77%  17.31%  22.17%  22.93%  23.56%
Server Points Won     65.86%  65.65%   63.2%  62.33%  62.03%
Total Aces             9.02%   8.56%   8.09%    7.1%    5.9%
1st Serve Pts Won     74.27%  72.95%   71.5%  69.86%   68.6%


WTA GS tournaments
WOMANS COMPETITION    Wi/08    Wi/07  USO/07   AO/08   RG/08
Return Games Won      31.74%  31.09%  35.04%  38.36%  38.29%
Server Points Won     57.98%  58.15%  56.45%  54.92%  54.88%
Total Aces             3.69%   4.25%    3.6%   3.01%   2.85%
1st Serve Pts Won     64.64%  64.99%  62.96%  61.43%  61.05%

.

CONCLUSION: Speed/Bounce characteristics combination of Wimbledon grass is probably much different (slower) than in some of previous decades, but without any big and notable changes in comparation with previous Wimbledon 2007. Speed/Bounce combination which players still have at grass give them bigger advantage after serve than at US Open, and especialy than at AO or RG. Officials is again right. Like in Australian Open new surface case, when numbers confirm (whatever some of "experts" say) that no big difference at all in comparation with old Rebound Ace surface in terms of speed/bounce impacts on players game, only new Plexicushion surface is more secure for players health and better resistent on temperature changes. Here in Wimbledon 2008 acording to event statistics no serious indication that anything is changed (with grass) in comparation with previous season.

and I'm not even fan of Ana Ivanovic... just an objective observer who realize how perfect she is

AMAZING BELGRADE MIRACLE: In just three years (2008-2011) 5 different players born in same city reach world #1 in rankings and several GS titles and finals (WTA singles: Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic, ATP singles: Novak Djokovic, ATP doubles: Nenad Zimonjic and Daniel Nestor... with notable performances of Bojana Jovanovski, Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki which is also all three born in Belgrade)
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post #2 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 07:45 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Numbers lie all the time.

They lie when they say there has been no significant change in service and return games won, but what those numbers don't tell you is:
-Who is winning and losing these games. Are traditional clay courters having more success?
-The mental side of this. It's clearly affecting the players because they are complaining about it, even if you don't see it in the numbers.
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post #3 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 07:55 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures

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post #4 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 08:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by alwayshingis View Post
Numbers lie all the time.

They lie when they say there has been no significant change in service and return games won, but what those numbers don't tell you is:
-Who is winning and losing these games. Are traditional clay courters having more success?
-The mental side of this. It's clearly affecting the players because they are complaining about it, even if you don't see it in the numbers.
More numbers - less chances for mistake, and this research is based on more than 200.000 single points from last 5 slams in both (ATP and WTA) competitions. After i see this results, for me no more mistery:

Wim/08 = Wim/07 > USO/07 > AO/08 > RG/08

in terms of Speed/Bounce "ADVANTAGE" influence.

and I'm not even fan of Ana Ivanovic... just an objective observer who realize how perfect she is

AMAZING BELGRADE MIRACLE: In just three years (2008-2011) 5 different players born in same city reach world #1 in rankings and several GS titles and finals (WTA singles: Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic, ATP singles: Novak Djokovic, ATP doubles: Nenad Zimonjic and Daniel Nestor... with notable performances of Bojana Jovanovski, Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki which is also all three born in Belgrade)
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post #5 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 08:04 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cp6uja View Post
In january during Australian Open i have here research about new Plexicushion surface which they use since this season and compare official tournament stats with previous at Rebound Ace, and also with other slams. Today i doing same thing to check this summer popular theory about "New" Wimbledon Grass and like in Melbourne case - no sensational results... it's all pretty same.


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in mans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
Code:
MANS COMPETITION        Wi/08  Wi/07 USO/07  AO/08  RG/08
Matches Played            127    126    127    127    127
5 Set Matches              23     22     21     21     20
4 Set Matches              40     30     37     34     39
3 Set Matches              58     74     64     70     67
Sets Played               460    452    453    455    459
Tie Breaks Played          92     94     79     78     69
Total Games              4624   4554   4423   4400   4403
Winners                  9772   9908   6415   5809   5046
Return Games Won          760    772    963    991   1021
Server Points Won       18737  18409  17326  17224  17400
Unforced Errors          5917   6274   5844   5809       
Total Points            28449  28042  27413  27632  28050
First Serves In         17620  17992  16450  17003  17631
% 1st Serves In          61.9   64.2     60   61.5   62.9
Total Aces               2565   2399   2219   1963   1656
Total Double Faults       988    831   1044    906    758
1st Serve Pts Won       13087  13126  11762  11878  12094
% 1st Srv Pts Won        74.3     73   71.5   69.9   68.6
% 2nd Srv Pts Won        52.2   52.6   50.8   50.3   50.9


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in womans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
Code:
WOMANS COMPETITION      Wi/08  Wi/07 USO/07  AO/08  RG/08
Matches Played            126    127    127    127    127
3 Set Matches              44     36     25     36     43
2 Set Matches              82     91    102     90     84
Sets Played               296    290    279    288    297
Tie Breaks Played          34     22     17     23     26
Total Games              2838   2637   2463   2687   2690
Winners                  5545   5404   3061   3228   2141
Return Games Won          890    813    857   1022   1020
Server Points Won       10776   9939   9132   9755   9930
Unforced Errors          4985   5059   4014   4732       
Total Points            18585  17091  16176  17761  18095
First Serves In         11735  10889   9972  11162  11603
% 1st Serves In          63.1   63.7   61.6   62.8   64.1
Total Aces                686    727    582    534    515
Total Double Faults       884    828    803    909    831
1st Serve Pts Won        7585   7077   6278   6857   7084
% 1st Srv Pts Won        64.6     65     63   61.4   61.1
% 2nd Srv Pts Won        46.6   46.1     46   43.9   43.8

Speed/Bounces most related stats (in percentages) about court surface:
Code:
ATP GS tournaments
MANS COMPETITION      Wi/08    Wi/07  USO/07   AO/08   RG/08
Return Games Won      16.77%  17.31%  22.17%  22.93%  23.56%
Server Points Won     65.86%  65.65%   63.2%  62.33%  62.03%
Total Aces             9.02%   8.56%   8.09%    7.1%    5.9%
1st Serve Pts Won     74.27%  72.95%   71.5%  69.86%   68.6%


WTA GS tournaments
WOMANS COMPETITION    Wi/08    Wi/07  USO/07   AO/08   RG/08
Return Games Won      31.74%  31.09%  35.04%  38.36%  38.29%
Server Points Won     57.98%  58.15%  56.45%  54.92%  54.88%
Total Aces             3.69%   4.25%    3.6%   3.01%   2.85%
1st Serve Pts Won     64.64%  64.99%  62.96%  61.43%  61.05%

.

CONCLUSION: Speed/Bounce characteristics combination of Wimbledon grass is probably much different (slower) than in some of previous decades, but without any big and notable changes in comparation with previous Wimbledon 2007. Speed/Bounce combination which players still have at grass give them bigger advantage after serve than at US Open, and especialy than at AO or RG. Officials is again right. Like in Australian Open new surface case, when numbers confirm (whatever some of "experts" say) that no big difference at all in comparation with old Rebound Ace surface in terms of speed/bounce impacts on players game, only new Plexicushion surface is more secure for players health and better resistent on temperature changes. Here in Wimbledon 2008 acording to event statistics no serious indication that anything is changed (with grass) in comparation with previous season.
You provide a lot of very good stats. These particular stats are however of limited use. They do not reflect how the effectiveness of slice has dwindled on grass over the last 5 to 10 years. They do not reflect how much more difficult it is to come to the net either. They simply reflect that it is still slightly easier to hold serve at Wimbledon than in the other slams. I think most of us would already know that, because although the grass has slowed down a lot and is certainly playing slower than at the US Open, even on perfect 100% rye grass the bounce is never going to be as true as on a hard court and hence it will always be a little bit, just a little bit, harder to receive. This doesn't however in any way suggest the speed of the court is faster than the US Open.

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post #6 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 08:05 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

I appreciate your work Srbija, but this is not about Wimby 2007 but rather about 2001 and previous ones. 2007 grass is pretty much the same as the 2008 one, you don't need to be a genius to figure that out. This whole issue is more about the style of play than about numbers.

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Last edited by Lunaris; Jul 14th, 2008 at 08:11 PM.
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoiledEgg View Post
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures
Where did you get these numbers from?

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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunaris View Post
I appreciate your work Srbija, but this is not about Wimby 2007 but rather about 2001 and previous ones. 2007 grass is pretty much the same as the 2008 one, you don't need to be a genius to figure that out. This whole issue is more about the style of play than about numbers.
Well said.


Does this mean than Ana will win the Golden Slam and win 23 Slams?
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post #9 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 08:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoiledEgg View Post
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures
This just means that "Wim/03 > Wim/08" and nothing else. Whatever is changes of ball speed or bounces, Wimbledon grass speed/bounce combination is still clearly way better advantage for player to hit ace, winner or hold they serve than at any other surface (including USO hardcourts).

and I'm not even fan of Ana Ivanovic... just an objective observer who realize how perfect she is

AMAZING BELGRADE MIRACLE: In just three years (2008-2011) 5 different players born in same city reach world #1 in rankings and several GS titles and finals (WTA singles: Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic, ATP singles: Novak Djokovic, ATP doubles: Nenad Zimonjic and Daniel Nestor... with notable performances of Bojana Jovanovski, Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki which is also all three born in Belgrade)
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post #10 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 08:40 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

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Originally Posted by AndreConrad View Post
Where did you get these numbers from?
Hawkeye- they did it during BBC coverage at Wimby

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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

These stats were made by a Fedtard
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post #12 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 09:05 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoiledEgg View Post
Hawkeye- they did it during BBC coverage at Wimby
Yeah, I saw that. They did a very good graphical illustration of the different path that the ball takes compared to a few years ago. There is a noticeable difference.

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post #13 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 09:08 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoiledEgg View Post
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures
Point being, it is not affecting that much.

Go cry over Fed some more.

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post #14 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 14th, 2008, 11:16 PM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cp6uja View Post
This just means that "Wim/03 > Wim/08" and nothing else. Whatever is changes of ball speed or bounces, Wimbledon grass speed/bounce combination is still clearly way better advantage for player to hit ace, winner or hold they serve than at any other surface (including USO hardcourts).
I've written it somewhere else: It doesn't have to mean Wim03 > Wim08! It was only one (!) measurement and are we sure that we had the same temperature at both days?

I think your numbers are telling more! And look at the finalists... of course they can play on every surface but they prefer faster courts!
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post #15 of 19 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2008, 01:05 AM
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Re: Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)

about fed's serve :

before passing the net :



after :



and when the ball is bouncing :




you can see that the ball bounces higher and is less fast than the one in 2003 (10 mph less ! )



this is not really the grass who has been slowed, but they changed the balls I think.

(all the credits at agassi.bb-fr.com , a french board )

A topic about Wimbledon's new grass ? Perfect ! I don't understand some things... let's go

(Out of subject : the people who think if Nadal has won, it was because of grass which had been slowed... you should make a comparison between Wimbledon's grass in 2001 (for example) and the one's from 2005, this is pretty more shocking than the parallel 2003-2008. )

We are not on MTF, but on WTaworld (hem I mean tennisforum ), so what are the effects ?

Venus has won in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2008... although she has won "only" two US Open...

Justine and Ana (last Roland Garros' champions) could/can succeed on grass but failed/fails against players who outplayed and outpowered them (I didn't see the whole match of Ana against Zheng but Zheng's game was so accurate and speedy) whereas the Williams still win there...
Ana has a big serve but she is far better in FO than in Wimbledon.. Let's see these stats, those who serve really well are advantaged by grass ... though Ana is better in Paris.

Do the stats really upset Wimbledon in terms of resultats (in WTA)? I don't think so... some people (not necessary here) speak about Navratilova's era for example for saying she would be overwhelmed by the big babes but lot of people say also grass becomes like clay, and the big babes don't really succeed on clay, do they? ... Let's put in this way : Serena lost in third round against Srebotnik at French Open but reached the final in All England Club Lawn... How do you explain this?

Last year, against Nadal in final, Federer hit nearly 50 aces and serve winners... this year, nearly 25 aces and more serves winners and I think Nadal is one of the best returners . Though the exchanges between both players were longer than usual (I mean , in 2001, they lasted .. what 10 hits ? now 30 ) but we should remember only about that?

The real matter for WTA is the game-wise, its technicals skills... So many exchanges wasted by an UE In ATP, Federer has the BEST game, the most completed and Nadal doesn't have an uni-dimensional game he is quite complete also.

At French Open, the ball bounces high (like in Wimbledon ATM) and takes more and more effects (slide, etc...) [Nadal didn't make an only double-fault during the whole tournament or one.. but still ), I would say "Okay, you are right" if we only stared at Nadal and Federer but what can we say about women?

Quote:
2006 : Nadal def. Federer -- Henin def. Kuznetsova
Federer def. Nadal - Mauresmo def. Henin

2007 : Nadal def. Federer -- Henin def. Ivanovic
Federer def. Nadal -- Venus def. Bartoli (who have previously defeated Ivanovic and Henin)

2008 : Nadal def. Federer -- Ivanovic def. Safina
Nadal def. Federer -- Venus def. Serena
Where were in BOTH ladies' events : Kuznetsova ? Mauresmo ? Bartoli ? Venus ? Serena ? Safina?

Also I want to add... What about Nicole Vaidisova? According to Cp6uja's stats, AO and RG have the slower courts and everybody knows Nicole Vaidisova's biggest weapon is her serve. And her biggest achievements at the moment in Slams were semi-finalist in Melbourne and Paris...

Elina Svitolina will PEAK in 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by Break My Career View Post
Did you see that final? Mirnyi was absolutely useless, paralyzed by nerves and he kept feeding Bryan easy volleys with his BH return. Robson played a very good first set but became equally useless after that. So basically it was Murray vs Azarenka, and Vika won believe it or not.
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