Analysis of the Chase race ( and how could Arantxa think she can still qualify ?! ) - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 12:07 PM Thread Starter
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Analysis of the Chase race ( and how could Arantxa think she can still qualify ?! )

Now that Wimbledon is over and the last but 2 weeks on clay are just about to take place, some remarks ...

1 3.936 Serena Williams
2 3.136 Venus Williams (that´s a surprising gap!)
3 2.759 Jennifer Capriati
4 2.345 Monica Seles
5 2.313 Justine Henin
6 1.994 Martina Hingis

definetly qualified

7 1.743 Amelie Mauresmo
8 1.587 Daniela Hantuchova
9 1.547 Jelena Dokic

almost qualified

10 1.400 Kim Clijsters
11 1.345 Silvia Farina

supposed to qualify

12 1.110 Anastasja Myskina
13 1.084 Anna Smashnova
14 1.030 Elena Dementiewa

Elena Dementiewa surely to qualify, it looks
like Myskina is capable of that too

15 971 Anne Kremer
17 919 Nathalie Dechy
21 853 Chanda Rubin

Thinking of how many points Chanda made the last
weeks she´s definetly a top16 contender to watch

774 Magdalena Maleeva
675 Mary Pierce
653 Meghann Shaughnessy
594 Amanda Coetzer
565 Anna Kournikova
481 Arantxa Sanchez
0 Lindsay Davenport

What I want to discuss it that, according to this list, we have 12-13 players qualified for the Chase in some way, and up to 10 rather legendary or popular girls fighting for a top16seed. For Lindsay, coming from 0, it will be a ride to the top if she makes it, Arantxa announced to play lower events just to get in, but are there enough to equal solid performances by Pierce or Maleeva in higher-ranked events - they don´t remain at 675 or 774, they´ll improve too. Arantxa said that her plans are concentrated on that Chase aim but is it realistic with the hardcourts deleted from her schedule and the indoor season coming up where she never played that well and is surrounded by top players ?! I think the only way to keep her chances is to go to Asia after NY and play all those 4-5 lower tier-events - but if Seles goes that way too, how to handle that ?!
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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 12:59 PM
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Lindsay is going to have a tough time...

VENUS
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Lindsay Jelena Maria

Mary : Monica : Svetlana : Sania : Jennifer : Amelie
Roddick : Grosjean : David : Djokovic
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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:15 PM Thread Starter
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WR, if you think of a Grand Slams quarterfinal worth 250 points or whatever, adding 2-3 solid hardcourt performances, Lindsay should be in the region of 700 points only due to 4-5 events at least.

Add then 2-3 indoor events this fall, that should make her a contender for the Chase definetly.
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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:15 PM
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lol... but starting with 0 doesn't help... makes it very daunting...

VENUS
Serena
Lindsay Jelena Maria

Mary : Monica : Svetlana : Sania : Jennifer : Amelie
Roddick : Grosjean : David : Djokovic
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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:18 PM Thread Starter
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Hi WR! I doubt though that she would have to qualify - isn´t there a rule that assured Anna or Anke of a spot last year which later was refused because Anke qualified the legal way ?
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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:22 PM
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Really? I'm not sure about that... hopefully Lindsay can qualify legally though...

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Lindsay Jelena Maria

Mary : Monica : Svetlana : Sania : Jennifer : Amelie
Roddick : Grosjean : David : Djokovic
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:23 PM
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The Top 15 are guaranteed entries

the WTA reserves the right to nominate a 16th entrant as a WC.

Almost sure that Kim and Silvia will also be there barring any disasters.

Good luck to my favs

AZARENKA

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Cetkovska*Svitolina*
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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 01:55 PM
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I feel almost positive that the top 11 will qualify (Williams through Farina) and that Lindsay will qualify (or at least get a wild card).
So it seems to me there are four open spots, more or less.
I would guess that Myskina, Dementieva, Rubin will take three of them.

By the way, Chris, I don't think Monica will play a full schedule in Asia. The Shanghai open is the same week as the Tier II in Brazil, where she is already committed to play. She might at most play one or two of the Japanese events, but I'm not sure, after she's played so much this year, she just might take the rest of the fall off. We'll see.
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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 02:39 PM Thread Starter
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I think Monica loved the Princess Cup in the past. I know about the scheduling problem for her with Bahia and Tokyo apart from that September 11th tragedy so I think the future is wide open between Tokyo and Bahia. Where in the world did I tell that she´ll play ALL of the Asian events ?!

I think in a couple of interviews she even talked about that and made the WTA responsible because they have events in Germany and she has no chance to play in fall apart from somewhere in Asia

I think that we´ve 12 assured and if you think of Myskina, Dementiewa and Rubin almost assured there is only the option of Lindsay as 16th and the race would be over.

This is what I was about to say. With Lindsay fighting to come back, this race is just a with or without Lindsay-option
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 02:41 PM
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LOL

It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile, winning's winning

*Schett Seles Schnyder Rubin Suarez Pierce*
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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 03:36 PM
 
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Can ASV qualify for the doubles ?
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post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 03:57 PM Thread Starter
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I think she hasn´t even to qualify really from what she achieved with Hantuchova this year.

I think that they´ll definetly do well in the US Open and if Arantxa participates in 1-2 more indoor events with her or even at Montreal, they are qualified - as far as I would say
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 04:24 PM
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Hi Chris!

My point was only that I think there would still be many events in Asia for Arantxa without meeting Monica. Monica is definitely defending her title in Brazil. I don't know if she's playing Princess Cup -- Yonex usually requires her to go, I think, though she did play at Pan Pacific this year, maybe that's enough? It would also be a lot of tennis US OPen and then two straight weeks of tennis in two different continents! So maybe she'll play Brazil and then take a week and then defend her title at the Tier III event in Tokyo.
I didn't know that she ever explicitly referred to the Germany issue in explaining her decision to play in Asia. (And I have read practically every interview with her ) But if she did, I'd love to know where. I think that was more speculation on this board.
She has played in Moscow since the stabbing, as well as exhibitions in Zurich and Austria, so I know she could play in these countries.
But she has played so much this year maybe she'll take a long break after Brazil?

As for the race, I think there are eleven assured (Williams through Farina) and then Davenport makes 12. In fact, the current top 12 players (with Testud subtracted). So then there are four openings. I think Myskina Dementieva and Rubin are reasonable because they all seem to be in good form, and they like faster courts best (as opposed to Smashnova, Schnyder, Suarez, Fernandez, Majoli)

For the 16th spot, it seems to be wide-open. Kremer and Dechy are both having solid years. I am putting early money on Eleni Danilidou. She is 23rd on the list right now -- but she played so well on grass, I think she might be able to keep it up.

Of course a brilliant run of form from Maleeva, kournikova, Pierce, Tammy or even Arantxa could send them to LA easily.
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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 04:32 PM
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hey mishar Iva has won 4 indoor titles hehe

Anyway, will Monica have to defend those titles in Asia? Isn't there a rule or something that says new champions have to defend their title Not sure though...

Well, anything can happen, but as has been said I can see the Top 11 making it through. Look for Myskina and Rubin to possibly join them too.
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post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old Jul 15th, 2002, 04:41 PM
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NO there is not a rule. Martina Hingis won Doha and Dubai last year for the first time, but did not participate in them this year. I think that the top 15 legal qualifiers will be:
Williams through Farina Elia, Rubin, Davenport, Myskina, Dementieva, with a wild card going to Kournikova who will be around 20 at the time.

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