What constitutes a 'weak' draw? - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:24 PM Thread Starter
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What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

Obviously, that depends on the level of the tournament. For discussion purposes, let's stick to Tier I's and GS tournaments. This thread is (obviously) prompted by the IW draw. IW has 15 of the top 20 players, but only 2 of the top 5. That's kind of unusual. Whether that's 'weak' or 'strong' depends, I think, for most folks on this board, on whether or not their fave is playing. If she's playing, it's strong, if she's not, it's weak.

However, let's pretend we're all objective, and say it's a matter of how you think about the tour.

Some people think the tour goes 20+ deep in players who are a threat to any given match. In rank order, more or less; Sharapova, Henin, Mauresmo, Kuznetsova, Clijsters, Hingis, Petrova, Jankovic, Dementieva, Vaidisova, Chakvetadze, Safina, Schnyder, Ivanovic, Serena, Peer, Li Na, Hantuchova, Golovin, Safarova, Groenefeld, Msykina, Venus. And they focus on the percentage of those players who are present.

The other school of thought is, the tour has maybe less than half a dozen who are threats to win any big tournament. Sharapova, Henin, Mauresmo, Clijsters and Serena. (I leave out Venus, even though I personally believe she's one of that half dozen, because one Tier III title with only one win over a top twenty player just not enough to say 'I'm back, and better than ever'.)

If you subscribe to that theory, then whether or not a Tier I or GS tournament is 'weak' is a matter of how many of the elite players are present. By that model, IW is quite weak, having only one of the five current 'big-timers'.

You could also use percentage of GS singles titlelists. On the surface, this favors IW, since the top three seeds have all won GS singles titles. However, how many active GS singles titelists are on the tour right now? Nine. (This does not count Davenport, Capriati or Seles.) Three of nine GS singles winners isn't so hot. But, to be realistic, let's say GS singles winners, in the top ten, who won a GS title in the last four or five years. Okay, four or five is pretty generous, but it's still a short list.

Sharapova, Henin, Mauresmo, Kuznetsova and Clijsters.

NOTE: Mary Pierce actually won her last GS singles title more recently than Hingis. Wierd, huh?

So, can I measure the strength of a tournament solely on the presence or absence of those five players?

Well, the whole discussion is moot, but in the abstract, it's an interesting question. In the early 80's, was a tournament automatically 'strong' if Evert and Navratilova both showed up?

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post #2 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:28 PM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

There are many things it depends on and it takes into account your personal views on players. This week I see Maria top seed [in my head I'm thinking this name should be followed by another star player, ie predicting what sort of final to expect] then I read Svetta [then I wouldnt count on her getting to the final so I have doubt, the draw breaks down in my head] then I think semis, i see Martina #3...then I shut down. Weak draw. I wouldnt waste anymore time. I'll assume Peer and Safarova will come through so the tennis is okay. I'll route for LiNa, pour myself a long drink and call back to the tournment in about a week or so to see what's happening...

I was practicing with Venus in Florida, and she was just killing me. I'm kind of glad she didn't make it, for my sake (laughter). You can't sleep on her because she's playing unbelievable. I got to take my chance now while she's out because when she's coming back, she's really playing like she's playing with no fear and she's practicing really hard. Yeah, she's playing unbelievable. > Serena Williams AO '07
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post #3 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:30 PM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

As far big tournaments go (not slams), to me a strong draw includes players who are top 10 and have won at least 1 Tier I title, maybe more. There are actually more people who have won big tournaments (not slams) apart from the ones you listed. Hingis, Kuznetsova, Petrova would be included. So neither the first, nor the second list. Although maybe a Tier I title is a bit excessive. But at least good results in Tier 1s or Slams.




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post #4 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:36 PM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

Wrong approach.

A draw is always weak or strong only in relation to other(s) draw(s).

In this case, the IW draw is "weak" or "strong" depending on what you compare it with:

I) Miami or the Grand Slams
II) other TIs like the PPO, Rome, San Diego, Moscow...

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post #5 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:43 PM Thread Starter
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

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Originally Posted by Corswandt View Post
Wrong approach.

A draw is always weak or strong only in relation to other(s) draw(s).
I don't think that's true. It's actually perfectly possible to have a year when ALL the Tier I's have weak draws. Injuries can do that, or just wierd scheduling by the players.

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Originally Posted by Corswandt View Post
In this case, the IW draw is "weak" or "strong" depending on what you compare it with:

I) Miami or the Grand Slams
II) other TIs like the PPO, Rome, San Diego, Moscow...
Exactly the approach I was trying to avoid. I'm looking for an objective measure, not a comparative one.

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post #6 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 5th, 2007, 11:49 PM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

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Originally Posted by Volcana View Post
I don't think that's true. It's actually perfectly possible to have a year when ALL the Tier I's have weak draws. Injuries can do that, or just wierd scheduling by the players.
But then the fields of those TIs would be considered weak because in previous seasons there had been stronger ones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volcana
Exactly the approach I was trying to avoid. I'm looking for an objective measure, not a comparative one.
"Objective" and "comparative" aren't real opposites. The words you're looking for are "absolute" and "relative".

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post #7 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:26 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

A strong draw is a tourney with some kind of depth. A tourney turned strong when lots of contenders could win it all. A weak draw is a tourney with lots of divas. Nobody wants to be a witness of players withdrawals or complainings rents.

you can call it a deep draw when you're totally sure that every main draw entries would be playing with guts, NOT with Hardware.

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Last edited by Dementieva Guts; Mar 6th, 2007 at 12:41 AM.
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post #8 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

A weak draw is the when the quality of play is poor, ala, errors and choking. not just when seeds are absent. a draw can be weak even if the top players are entered if they play poorly.

Last edited by jjames69; Mar 6th, 2007 at 12:37 AM.
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post #9 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

When the winner is a foregone conclusion, it is generally a weak field (unless federer is in the draw) There are a few challnegers in the draw, but come sunday weeek, maria will be holding the trophy.

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post #10 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:36 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjames69 View Post
A weak draw is the when the quality of play is poor, ala, errors and choking. not just when seeds are absent.
I agree with that as well. A strong draw is only as good as the quality of play.




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post #11 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:44 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjames69 View Post
A weak draw is the when the quality of play is poor, ala, errors and choking. not just when seeds are absent. a draw can be weak even if the top players are entered if they play poorly.
that makes no sense. That doesn't mean the draw was weak. It just means the quality of play in the tournament was not good. That's such a wierd way to look at a draw. Quality of play is not linked to the strength of a draw. To me a weak draw is a draw where the quality of players is poor. Meaning a draw where there are few top, proven players.
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post #12 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:46 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

Parts of this draw are very difficult. Peer plays Safarova in the round of 32. The winner probably plays Chakvetadze. That would be a good section of any major.

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post #13 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 12:53 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

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Originally Posted by manatee View Post
that makes no sense. That doesn't mean the draw was weak. It just means the quality of play in the tournament was not good. That's such a wierd way to look at a draw. Quality of play is not linked to the strength of a draw. To me a weak draw is a draw where the quality of players is poor. Meaning a draw where there are few top, proven players.

sure take serenas draw at the AO for example. she played an off form sharapova, off form jankovic(a real errorfest), and peer and vaidisova both showed their youth by choking.

therefore the draw was weak. serena played one good match and won the tournament

and it will make miami even more interesting.

Last edited by jjames69; Mar 6th, 2007 at 01:00 AM.
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post #14 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

A weak draw is when a player you can't stand (Sharapova and Hingis in my case) wins a tournament.

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post #15 of 31 (permalink) Old Mar 6th, 2007, 02:05 AM
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Re: What constitutes a 'weak' draw?

hmmm, I think it's a strong draw.

Obviously not everyone is in CALI, but especially the top half has MOSTLY potentially, very juicy matches!

Venus Ana Caro Sloane
Timea Aga Masha Bencic Kristyna Keys Dani
Sania Vika Nicole Petko Simona Broady Robi CiCi Mladenovic Garcia JJ Errani Duval


Martina Hingis Forever!!!
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