I dont think Mary can reach No.1. after Melbourne. Both have no or little (Mary has just 2 points) to defend. So if Kim doesnt play and Mary does, and Mary does well, then Mary can close the gap in the rankings.
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I'm nor sure how the ranking work without quality points but Lindsay and Kim were miles ahead of everyone else before they were taken off. If that's still the case Mary won't be number 1 just by winning the oz open. But I would give her a great chance of winning the oz open though. If Kim withdraws from the oz open I would think Lindsay will keep it until her points are replaced in Toyko.