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post #1 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 01:21 AM Thread Starter
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Volcana's QF analysis

Suarez vs Sharapova

Guile vs Power, brain vs braun, cliche vs metaphor, yada vs yada

Understanding of the game, variety of shots, point construction, all that goes to Suarez. But can she hit a winner past Sharapova without first having to pull her into the doubles alley?

Sharapova has a lot of disadvantages here, but the way she's hitting, all she had to do is to get Suarez two steps out of position. There's a HUGE disparity in abaility to generate pace here. For Suarez to win, she has to make Shaprapova miss some shots. Feed her enough slice that she hits into the net, or enough topspin that she's hitting balls over her head. Jam her to the body. I don't doubt Paola knows all this. I'm not at all sure she can do it.

One sure thing. Sharapova will win any duel of baseline power vs Suarez.

Mauresmo vs Dementieva

1) Amelie's back. She can strain it by over hitting at almost any time.

2) Elena's serve. She's caught a break here. Amelie isn't the service return monster that the Americans are. But Amelie will slice, slice, slice Elena's backhand, and not allow her to uncork her forehand on any regular basis. Dementieva doesn't have NO shot, but there's a clear favorite in this match.

Venus vs Anastasia (she screamed in vain)

Barring injury, Venus in straight sets. Both players weakest surface, but Venus has won multiple Tier I's on clay, and made the RG final. The ankle is what it is. Venus can always roll it again. Patience is a none issue here. Both of these players like to rally. Maykina won't let break opportunities pass her by. She might not break, but she'll know when to try.

At some point, Anastasia Myskina needs to get sick of being the 8th best player in the world, and beat one of The Seven. Here's another chance.

Serena vs JCap

1) Rome wasn't meaningless.

2) Serena's been playing on that knee for a week.

3) The crowd can basically boo and whistle every point, irrespective of who does what. They've treated both of them pretty badly in the last week.

4) I don't think it was an accident that Jenn beat Serena after firing her Dad as coach.

I think Serena will win, because she ultimately the better player. But I'm mindful of the fact that she wasn't better 10 days ago. You couldn't get me to bet on this match except by putting gun to my head.

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post #2 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 01:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volcana
Serena vs JCap
You couldn't get me to bet on this match except by putting gun to my head.
If you insist.....

I must say that I agree 101% with your analysis, Volcana. Of the four matches, Serena-Jen is the only one without a clear favorite. In fact, if it is Mauresmo-Sharapova in the semis, I wouldn't bet against Sharapova.

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post #3 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 02:40 AM
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Originally Posted by darrinbaker00
Of the four matches, Serena-Jen is the only one without a clear favorite.
This is a popular opinion round here... and really, it's one I completely disagree with. I'm 99% certain that Serena will take it. Capriati hasn't been a threat to win even Tier II titles for a couple of years, and one win over a listless Serena won't change that. Also, look at how she's been playing! Beygelzimer was 3-0 up in the decider, but choked. Peschke served for the first set, and choked. Bovina dictated the entirety of the match, but is brainless on the big points. Serena, on the other hand, has only been stretched by Kirilenko, who played better than all of Capriati's opponents combined.

Paola v Masha could definitely go either way, but Paola's the favourite. Given Amélie's history of nerves, there's no way I'm betting on her match. And Nastya is the most underrated player on these boards, no contest. Serena's the only 'favourite' I'm certain will get through.
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post #4 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sartrista7
This is a popular opinion round here... and really, it's one I completely disagree with. I'm 99% certain that Serena will take it. Capriati hasn't been a threat to win even Tier II titles for a couple of years, and one win over a listless Serena won't change that. Also, look at how she's been playing! Beygelzimer was 3-0 up in the decider, but choked. Peschke served for the first set, and choked. Bovina dictated the entirety of the match, but is brainless on the big points. Serena, on the other hand, has only been stretched by Kirilenko, who played better than all of Capriati's opponents combined.

Paola v Masha could definitely go either way, but Paola's the favourite. Given Amélie's history of nerves, there's no way I'm betting on her match. And Nastya is the most underrated player on these boards, no contest. Serena's the only 'favourite' I'm certain will get through.
Sharapova-Suarez: The only factor Sharapova has working against her, albeit a big factor, is inexperience; even Suarez would admit that Sharapova is the more talented of the two. This one's all up to Sharapova: if she plays to her level of talent, she'll win. If she plays to her level of experience, she'll lose.

Serena-Capriati: Jen has been the less consistent of the two, but you can't deny that Serena stokes her competitive fire like no other player. Their last match wasn't an aberration because Jen won; it was an aberration because it only went two sets. I expect Serena to win, but If I were a betting man, I wouldn't touch that one.

Venus-Myskina: Myskina may have a better forehand, but that's about it. If Venus maintains her current level of play, she wins no worse than 6-4, 6-4.

Mauresmo-Dementieva: If ever there was a time for Mauresmo to get out to a fast start, this is it. If Dementieva gets a 2-0 or 3-0 lead in the first, Mauresmo might start gripping. If I'm Mauresmo's coach, I'd show her a tape of the NASDAQ-100 final and tell her to do what Serena did on Dementieva's serve.

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post #5 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darrinbaker00
Sharapova-Suarez: The only factor Sharapova has working against her, albeit a big factor, is inexperience; even Suarez would admit that Sharapova is the more talented of the two. This one's all up to Sharapova: if she plays to her level of talent, she'll win. If she plays to her level of experience, she'll lose.

Serena-Capriati: Jen has been the less consistent of the two, but you can't deny that Serena stokes her competitive fire like no other player. Their last match wasn't an aberration because Jen won; it was an aberration because it only went two sets. I expect Serena to win, but If I were a betting man, I wouldn't touch that one.

Venus-Myskina: Myskina may have a better forehand, but that's about it. If Venus maintains her current level of play, she wins no worse than 6-4, 6-4.

Mauresmo-Dementieva: If ever there was a time for Mauresmo to get out to a fast start, this is it. If Dementieva gets a 2-0 or 3-0 lead in the first, Mauresmo might start gripping. If I'm Mauresmo's coach, I'd show her a tape of the NASDAQ-100 final and tell her to do what Serena did on Dementieva's serve.
Masha is more talented than Paola like Kim Clijsters is more talented than Patty Schnyder. Paola has so many more shots at her disposal... but what Masha has is bigger than what Paola has. On any other surface, I'd go with Masha in straight sets... but Paola has the capability to annoy a set out of Masha, and Masha has shown a horrid tendency to collapse once that happens.

Nastya's big weapon is her backhand. Her forehand is technically better than Venus's, thus it's more consistent - but it's not as big. I refuse to contemplate this match as Nastya and Venus are both my faves

Lena D has a habit of winning matches she's not supposed to. She's had an insanely unpredictable year... even without Mauresmo's nerves, she could lose to her 0-6 0-6 or beat her in straights.

In other words... in every other QF, the result is dependent on how both players play. Whereas I can only see Serena losing if she shows up listless and uncaring like she did in Rome.
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post #6 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sartrista7
Serena, on the other hand, has only been stretched by Kirilenko, who played better than all of Capriati's opponents combined.
and that is where you are really wrong...
kirilenko did nothing special except keep the ball in play. and jenn is even better than kirilenko at that and also has many more weapons.
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post #7 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:26 AM
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and that is where you are really wrong...
kirilenko did nothing special except keep the ball in play. and jenn is even better than kirilenko at that and also has many more weapons.
Agreed.

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post #8 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:26 AM
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Originally Posted by sartrista7
Nastya's big weapon is her backhand. Her forehand is technically better than Venus's, thus it's more consistent - but it's not as big. I refuse to contemplate this match as Nastya and Venus are both my faves
Therein lies the problem: is Myskina's backhand (her #1 weapon) better than Venus' backhand (her #1 weapon)? I don't think so, and that's why I think Venus will have a relatively easy time.

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post #9 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:27 AM
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Wasn't Anastasia considered a clay-courter just a few years back?

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post #10 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:32 AM
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Therein lies the problem: is Myskina's backhand (her #1 weapon) better than Venus' backhand (her #1 weapon)? I don't think so, and that's why I think Venus will have a relatively easy time.
Hmm... it's arguable that Nastya's biggest weapons are her tactics and speed. But really, I'm splitting hairs; I think Venus will win in straights for the reasons you state, but I don't want to admit it because I really, really want Nastya to make her first Slam semi

(Kirilenko did a hell of a lot more than keep the ball in play, btw - her placement and shot selection up to 4-2 in the third was impeccable.)

(Nastya says her favourite surface is clay, but she lies. She's too impatient for it.)
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post #11 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:34 AM
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i really like all these matches.

mauresmo v elena
it could go either way bc just as said above, elena can win any match, even when she isn't supposed to. she's an incredible fighter and can keep the pressure of winning a lot of long rallies lingering in momo's head. i like her chances if she wins the first game. but mauresmo should win this in three. there will be a rough patch for her though.

serena v jenn
has the makings of a good one. jenn has had tougher opponents easily, but that's not necessarily a good thing for her and her fitness. when you get right down to it, if jenn can't pressure serena on her serve, she has no chance. that being said, jenn has always found a way to keep things very close, and if she can hold her own serve when it matters, she can claim victory. jenn in 3.

myskina v venus
venus in two. she can win the short ones and the long ones and myskina won't have enough on her worst surface to beat venus tomorrow. she could serve really well and return really well (she rarely doesn't, but she would have to be clean and offensive).

sharapova v suarez
big game of maria should dominate all the short points. she really needs to concentrate on her second shot. she can't let paola get points where she makes the error early. suarez doesn't have enough firepower IMO to take more than a set. i don't see maria getting frustrated at the drop of a set. this is for a spot in the semifinals and she really wants it. she's grown a lot in a week, and this is just one more step that she should be able to take.
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post #12 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sartrista7
Hmm... it's arguable that Nastya's biggest weapons are her tactics and speed. But really, I'm splitting hairs; I think Venus will win in straights for the reasons you state, but I don't want to admit it because I really, really want Nastya to make her first Slam semi

(Kirilenko did a hell of a lot more than keep the ball in play, btw - her placement and shot selection up to 4-2 in the third was impeccable.)

(Nastya says her favourite surface is clay, but she lies. She's too impatient for it.)
As does Jen's when she is on, she paints the line like no one else. And she's moving better than Kirilenko was, not saying she was moving bad.
Lets face it, you cant compare a match between Kirilenko and Serena to one against Jen and Serena, no matter how hard you try. These two play a whole different level of womens tennis than any other 2 players on the tour right now. Period.

Come back EVENTUALLY Cappy!! Ok this clearly was written back in a day when I still had faith..


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post #13 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:36 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by darrinbaker00
Sharapova-Suarez: even Suarez would admit that Sharapova is the more talented of the two.
I don't agree with that. In many ways, this is a lesser version of Venus Williams vs Martina Hingis. Who would you call more 'talented' in that matchup? I know a lot of people on this board said 'Hingis' for years. (I grant you, I wasn't one of them.)

Superior mind is all Suarez here. She has the greater understanding of angles, the greater understanding of how to move an opponent around, the greater understanding of how to induce errors, of how to get to the net. And she has better volleys.

I've yet to see Sharapova induce an error from an opponent other than by hitting a ball too hard for the opponent to handle. Sharapova has a VERY large advantage in raw power in this matchup. But against the only seeded player she's faced so far, she had 34 UES vs 28 winners. You can make her miss, and she's playing someone who does know how to make other players miss.

Looking at it the other way, other than hitting harder, how is Sharapova MORE talented? Does she see angles better? Is she more accurate? Is she faster? Does she have better hands? Can she control slice or topspin better?

Outside of power, the talent advantage looks to lean very heavily toward Suarez.

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post #14 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:36 AM
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Originally Posted by jacs
Wasn't Anastasia considered a clay-courter just a few years back?
maybe before anyone had seen her play. she seems very hard court oriented to me. but i've only seen her play a few times.
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post #15 of 30 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2004, 03:37 AM
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I don't agree with that. In many ways, this is a lesser version of Venus Williams vs Martina Hingis. Who would you call more 'talented' in that matchup? I know a lot of people on this board said 'Hingis' for years. (I grant you, I wasn't one of them.)

Superior mind is all Suarez here. She has the greater understanding of angles, the greater understanding of how to move an opponent around, the greater understanding of how to induce errors, of how to get to the net. And she has better volleys.

I've yet to see Sharapova induce an error from an opponent other than by hitting a ball too hard for the opponent to handle. Sharapova has a VERY large advantage in raw power in this matchup. But against the only seeded player she's faced so far, she had 34 UES vs 28 winners. You can make her miss, and she's playing someone who does know how to make other players miss.

Looking at it the other way, other than hitting harder, how is Sharapova MORE talented? Does she see angles better? Is she more accurate? Is she faster? Does she have better hands? Can she control slice or topspin better?

Outside of power, the talent advantage looks to lean very heavily toward Suarez.

Gonna have to go with AGREED on that. She's been around a lot longer and on clay a lot longer.

Come back EVENTUALLY Cappy!! Ok this clearly was written back in a day when I still had faith..


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