Will Serena overtake Chrissy for number one before the end of the 2004 season? - TennisForum.com
View Poll Results: Will Serena overtake Christine for number one by the end of this season?
Yes 18 26.47%
No 50 73.53%
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post #1 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:05 PM Thread Starter
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Will Serena overtake Chrissy for number one before the end of the 2004 season?

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Last edited by monicAnna; Apr 3rd, 2004 at 11:19 PM.
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post #2 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
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There's no poll...

And no, unless Christine gets injured and doesn't at least reach SF's and F's every week... Serena has no shot, even if she dominates.
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post #3 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
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Yes.

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post #4 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
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Yes, if her injuries are behind her yes, I do see it.

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post #5 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:07 PM
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If she stays healthy then yes

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post #6 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:11 PM
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People, don't forget that Christine has a 1750 point lead this year on Serena after Miami...

That's a lot.

Even if Serena wins the 3 remaining slams, and Christine only reaches the Semis in them... Christine would still be ranked ahead of Serena, with our messed up ranking system. Combine that with the fact that Christine will play more tournaments during the rest of the year.
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post #7 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoOlMaNsTeVeN
If she stays healthy then yes
I agree with you!
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post #8 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:12 PM
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No, I don't think so. As said before, Justine already has about 1750 points It'll be really hard to overtake Justine's spot, unless she gets injured of course!
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post #9 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:13 PM
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like Leenah said..Serena will have to win about every tournament she enters, and hoping Justine won't win too many titles or get to slamfinals..

No I don't see it happening..may be after AO 2005
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post #10 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brαm
No, I don't think so. As said before, Justine already has about 1750 points It'll be really hard to overtake Justine's spot, unless she gets injured of course!
Thats a good point! I forgot about the point difference. It will be very tough for Serena to gain that many points. But it is possible!
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post #11 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:31 PM
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Nah....the gap is too big. Next year maybe....

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post #12 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyrocket
Thats a good point! I forgot about the point difference. It will be very tough for Serena to gain that many points. But it is possible!
The points are all about Maths. Justine is ahead by all her points gained this year and is likely to play 19-20 tournaments. Serena on her usual schedule might play another 8? She already has maximum points for wimbledon in her ranking so that won't help her ranking much. Even if Serena wins all of her tournaments Justine if she stays fit will win some of hers and probably do well in the others. About the only thing serena has on her side is that she gets Justine's quality points if she ever beats her. Early next year if then is probably Serena's best hope for number 1unless Justine is injured. Put another way, Justine is winning more than she used to and Serena's schedule used to mean that Justine got close in the rankings because she played and won more in a year anyway. It was close before Justine's improvement, now it might be even more difficult. Even if Serena can play better than Justine when they meet - which is uncertain - serena may have to play a lot more if she wants to be number 1 again. Problem is playing more might mean winning less though.
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post #13 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:17 PM
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I don't know whether she will or not but she does have a shot. Only the best 17 tournaments will count at the end of the year. So, Rena just needs 16 more.

In fact, Chrissy already has 5: 1 GS win, 1 Tier1 win, 2 Tier2 wins and 1 Tier2 SF. Impressive, isn't it?
Rena will have to match her in those 5 performances, then do better than her (over all) in the other 12. Not an easy feat, but possible.
There are 3 GS's left, 7 Tier1's, 10 Tier2's and WTC, that's 21 good tourneys to choose 16 out of. If Chrissy starts faltering and Rena keeps on rumbling, the latter might not even need all 16 tourneys. Two GS wins alone can go a long way.

Realistically, I don't see Rena playing more than 14 additional tourneys. She will have to make them all count

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post #14 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:20 PM
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It depends. Serena doesn't play a full schedule and she has a vulnerable and delicate body. If she were to play a full schedule, then I would say YES very firmly, but seeing that she won't...it'll be hard for her to catch up to Christine by the end of this year.

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post #15 of 27 (permalink) Old Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TennisPower
I don't know whether she will or not but she does have a shot. Only the best 17 tournaments will count at the end of the year. So, Rena just needs 16 more.

In fact, Chrissy already has 5: 1 GS win, 1 Tier1 win, 2 Tier2 wins and 1 Tier2 SF. Impressive, isn't it?
Rena will have to match her in those 5 performances, then do better than her (over all) in the other 12. Not an easy feat, but possible.
There are 3 GS's left, 7 Tier1's, 10 Tier2's and WTC, that's 21 good tourneys to choose 16 out of. If Chrissy starts faltering and Rena keeps on rumbling, the latter might not even need all 16 tourneys. Two GS wins alone can go a long way.

Realistically, I don't see Rena playing more than 14 additional tourneys. She will have to make them all count
Serena already has a Wimbledon win in her ranking and a FO SF so she can only pick up so many points there even if she does do better . Justine is probably only going to play another 14 tournaments this year but the likelyhood of Serena playing 16 tournaments (or even 14) is so remote that you can discount it. Serena's best bet is to target Justine's tournaments to get her quality points and stop Justine winning but that would not only mean playing more but playing much more outside the USA, playing Venus's tournaments and having to beat her again, and playing more before GS - none of which serena has done before. It might not work anyway as Justine might win, Justine might learn to avoid Serena or Kim might come through and beat both of them to number 1 as they neutralise eachother by sharing wins.
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