Thre's roughly a 300 point gap between .... - TennisForum.com
 
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post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:00 PM Thread Starter
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Thre's roughly a 300 point gap between ....

Ai Sugiyama
Chanda Rubin
Elena Dementieva

And

Nadia Petrova
Vera Zvonareva

Zvonareva just won Memphis, so she has cut into the gap a bit. Eventually, if only because of age, Z and P will pass Rubin. I think Sugiyama is a few years older than them as well. But will it happens this year? Will Z and/or P make the top ten this year? There are competent players ahead of them. Given health, those players likely won't come back to Z ands P. And Venus is behind them.

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post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volcana
Given health, those players likely won't come back to Z ands P.
I disagree. Firstly, "given health" is not something which can be used to predict anything on the WTA, especially not this year, and especially not as both Rubin and Dementieva had to withdraw from their last tournaments with various ailments. Secondly, Rubin and Sugiyama both have a load of points falling off in the coming few weeks; Petrova has nothing of consequence to defend until RG.

Thirdly, look at the form of all of those players this year. Sugiyama: Gold Coast title aside - and remember, Petrova was creaming her in the final until she got injured - she seems to have reverted to her pre-2003 form. Rubin: hasn't really played well since Eastbourne, certainly not at the level she got into the top 10 with, and is currently injured again. Dementieva: it may be because she's retooling her serve (I do so sincerely hope, anyway), but she's already had two losses to non-top 100 players and currently boasts a less-than-impressive 3-4 record.

Zvonareva, on the other hand, has just won a title and is dealing pretty smartly with those ranked beneath her - I can't see her failing to defend too many points this season (especially bearing in mind that she's ranked where she is primarily because of consistent QF finishes throughout the year). Petrova is injured, but as I said, she has literally nothing to defend until RG.

It's very probable that Petrova and Zvonareva will have made up the gap by RG.
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post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:30 PM
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I guess now there're just about 100 points between Lena & Vera! Not a huge gap! And Elena has Amelia Island to defend!

Let's say I hope they both will be in Top 10!

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post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:34 PM Thread Starter
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That's why I said 'given health'.

If Petrova hadn't gotten hurt, she might be inthe topten now, not Dementieva. But the health situation is so messed upthis year, it almost renders all prediction meaningless. To even examine the question, I had to remove health from the picture.

Sugiyama won't fal below 2000, IMHO, so Petrova and Zvonanreva will have to go get her.

Clay season is coming, Paola Suarez is right behind them. If she's gonna make the top ten, she's going to do it in the spring. And Venus is defending very little this spring as well.

167 Petrova
183 V Williams
496 Zvonareva

Yes Venus is 600 points behind, but she only has six tournaments. Petrova and Zvonareva have 22 and 23 respectively. IF (and it's a big if) Venus can play four tournaments before RG, she do nothing but add points from three of them. She averages over 200 points per tournament. Good bye 600 point gap.

The odds favor Petrova to the top ten. Zvonareva is more problematic, because she defends so many points.

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post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:35 PM
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I think they hjave a chance, but whenm Farina, Maleeva and Schnyder continue thgeir good run, they could pass them, too. Espacially Farina and Maleeva have to defend nothing until RG:

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post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 04:45 PM
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Zvonareva will be Top 10 next week. Sugiyama is losing tons of points next week.

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post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ys
Zvonareva will be Top 10 next week. Sugiyama is losing tons of points next week.
that's correct, this is already speculated before Vera won the title, and even without the title she could hav gotten into top 10 next week. Ai is the one racing to top 10 this week.
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post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 05:30 PM
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Vera will be top ten this year, if not this month. Ai is going to lose a boatload of points from Scottsdale, and she better pray for good results in Dubai. Very solid QF points to defend, but with her ranking where it is now, she should be able to ride her seeding to every QF she wants.

Nadia could make the top 10 before RG, but after that she'll have a hell of a time defending the SF points at RG. I think she might have a brief period in the top 10, but not for long.

Before we start talking about Venus coming bac kinto the top 10, she's going to have to show some of her stuff, and soon. She'll need to win more than two matches in a tournament, and then we can talk. She really doesn't have anything to defend though. 4r Miami being the only thing in the near future, followed by F points at Warsaw. RG 4r and then Wimby points, but then it's all in her hands. I don't think she'll make the top 10 before Wimby, but she could if she steps up her game. After Wimby, I think she's a lock for top 10. Zero to defend, but she's gotta paly more than she does.

Elena will sink like a rock if she keeps playing like she is now. There is no way in hell she's defending Amelia Island, so she can say good bye to the top 10.

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post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 06:31 PM
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Poor Elena.
Elena Dementieva will need to pick up her game, she played so well at the end of last season and now she's beginning to play like crap again. She needs to pick it up during the remaining hardcourt events leading into the Clay season. Elena lost in the 1R of Miami (or am I mistaking her for someone else) so a good showing there could help her out a bit.
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post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 08:17 PM
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post #11 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 08:50 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ys
Zvonareva will be Top 10 next week. Sugiyama is losing tons of points next week.
Oh that's right. Ai won Scottsdale last year didn't she?

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post #12 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 08:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sartrista7
I disagree. Firstly, "given health" is not something which can be used to predict anything on the WTA, especially not this year, and especially not as both Rubin and Dementieva had to withdraw from their last tournaments with various ailments. Secondly, Rubin and Sugiyama both have a load of points falling off in the coming few weeks; Petrova has nothing of consequence to defend until RG.

Thirdly, look at the form of all of those players this year. Sugiyama: Gold Coast title aside - and remember, Petrova was creaming her in the final until she got injured - she seems to have reverted to her pre-2003 form. Rubin: hasn't really played well since Eastbourne, certainly not at the level she got into the top 10 with, and is currently injured again. Dementieva: it may be because she's retooling her serve (I do so sincerely hope, anyway), but she's already had two losses to non-top 100 players and currently boasts a less-than-impressive 3-4 record.

Zvonareva, on the other hand, has just won a title and is dealing pretty smartly with those ranked beneath her - I can't see her failing to defend too many points this season (especially bearing in mind that she's ranked where she is primarily because of consistent QF finishes throughout the year). Petrova is injured, but as I said, she has literally nothing to defend until RG.

It's very probable that Petrova and Zvonareva will have made up the gap by RG.
What the fuck are you talking about Rubin hasn't played well since Eastbourne? She reached 3 finals in the end of the year. She almost beat Justine at Sydney repeated her 4th round performance at the AUSSIE and made the SF's again at the Tokyo Tournament. Chanda has no points to defend until Scottsdale where she lost 2nd round. So think again Sartrista!

If anything Dementieva will be bye-bye. Zvonareva and Petrova won't reach the Top 10 because they both have some major stuff at the RG to defend. They can maybe get in at 10 and 9 but after RG its bye bye to them.
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post #13 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 08:57 PM
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Yes, Ai won Scottsdale

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post #14 of 14 (permalink) Old Feb 22nd, 2004, 09:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plear
What the fuck are you talking about Rubin hasn't played well since Eastbourne? She reached 3 finals in the end of the year. She almost beat Justine at Sydney repeated her 4th round performance at the AUSSIE and made the SF's again at the Tokyo Tournament. Chanda has no points to defend until Scottsdale where she lost 2nd round. So think again Sartrista!

If anything Dementieva will be bye-bye. Zvonareva and Petrova won't reach the Top 10 because they both have some major stuff at the RG to defend. They can maybe get in at 10 and 9 but after RG its bye bye to them.
Oh, do calm down, you silly little boy. Let's look at the results, shall we?

Wimbledon - wide open draw to the QF, loses somewhat tamely to Farina Elia
San Diego - QF, loses to Davenport, beats no one special
US Open - loses 1R to Vento-Kabchi
Bali and Shanghai - beats up on scrubs to get to two finals, folds against Dementieva in both
Filderstadt and Zurich - wins one match, loses two
Luxembourg - beats up on scrubs again to reach final (though I note that the QF score is Rubin def Molik 5-7 5-4 ret.), folds against Clijsters
-win against Mauresmo at the YEC is very good, but choke against Dementieva is... not
-takes JHH to three at Sydney, but JHH never hit top form in Australia at all; worth noting that Watson (!!!) took Rubin to a tiebreak in 1R
-Myskina is probably a better player than Rubin, but Rubin's game plan by the end of that AO match was woeful
-gets taken to three tight sets by Morigami in Tokyo, advances to SF when Venus pulls out

It's obviously not a slump of Dokic-esque proportions... but neither is it a particularly inspiring run, and if you think that's Chanda at her best...

Chanda may well fall out of the top 10 after Key Biscayne, when her SF points and JHH-beating bonus points fall off.
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