Justine earned 420 points for winning Charleston, but since she had 221 to defend from Amelia Island last year, she only gained 209, a little less than half of her total from Berlin. She has to defend 734 points from Rome and Berlin, plus 59 points from Hamburg.
An interesting note: right now, Hamburg is Justine's 17th highest point total, so if she can earn more than 59 points at Amelia Island this year (She has to reach the quarterfinals at AI without facing the lowest ranked player in her section of the draw for that to happen.), those Hamburg points will no longer count towards her total.
If she wins Amelia Island, she can gain as many as 342 points. With that plus the points she gained from Charleston (209), she would have gained 551 points, meaning she will need to earn 183 points in Rome and Berlin to defend all of last year's points (551+183=731). That would pretty much mean reaching the quarterfinals of one and the semis of the other, which is extremely doable for her. (It's also possible that she could earn 183 points by reaching the quarterfinals of both events, depending on the strength of the draw)
If she can defend those points (and I think she can, especially after she beat Serena the way she did), and win Amelia Island, she will have (roughly) 4184 points, which (right now) would be 371 points out of third place and 401 points out of second.
Note: Kim currently has 4585 points, but subtract the 361 points she earned in Hamburg, and she would have 4224. If Justine wins Amelia Island, playing the highest ranked players she can face, she will have 4184 (If I did my math right.). That means that coming into Berlin, they will be within 40 points of each other. Kim can gain points, though, because I think she lost in the second round there last year, but they could be within a couple hundred points of each other going into Roland Garros.
Another note: I noticed that some people in General Messages were concerned about Justine's schedule. If she wins Amelia Island and reaches the semifinals of Berlin (depending on quality points), she could withdraw from Rome if she wanted to be extra fresh for Roland Garros, and she wouldn't drop below her current points total (I don't think so, anyway).
So what do all of these numbers mean? It all means that Justine has a decent chance of being ranked second going into Wimbledon this year. She's very confident, and if she can stay healthy and keep her level of play up, she can get there without too much trouble, and without many points to defend during the U.S. hard court season, she could hang onto that ranking for a while. I hope she does it.
Last edited by caseyl45; Apr 15th, 2003 at 05:25 AM.