Evaluating Blue Chips - TennisForum.com

 
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post #1 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 10th, 2011, 10:31 PM Thread Starter
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Evaluating Blue Chips

We all know that blue chips don't always pan out. After each season, I want to start evaluating whether or not blue chips were worth their touted value.

Class of 2010: Freshman Year

Worth their Value
K. Ahn (NJ)
A. Cercone (FL)
N. Gibbs (CA)
R. Kahan (CT)

Promising Value
L. Smyth (CA)
B. Bolender (FL)
M. Macfarlane (UT)

Average Value
K. Christian (CA)
B. Niu (OR)

Limited Value
K. Fuller (GA)
N. Hamilton (IL)
H. Mar (IL)
M. Belaya (FL)
L. Kimbell (TX)
A. Clay (GA)
B. Seideman (NY)* Hard to evaluate since plays in Ivy League

Not Worth their Value
E. Begley (TX)
C. Dolehide (IL)
A. Jerjomina (FL)
C. Peretz (NJ)
A. Anghelescu (GA)

Should be Blue Chips
B. Boren (CA)
O. Janowicz (FL)
A. Leatu (CO)
K. Rizzolo (FL)
S. Critser (CA)* Mainly for the indoor season
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post #2 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 10th, 2011, 10:51 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Belaya was a better striker than Cercone. Just that Cercone outlasted her and was a bit fitter

And Christian and Fuller are outstanding doubles players, Hamilton and Kimbell too for that matter. I like Clay too. Dunno about the difference between Bolender, Critser and Niu either
And Smyth...too bad she wasn't exposed to the National stage..would've been a good chance to judge her abilities.

Boren and Cako are from a different class;

Last edited by fantic; Jun 10th, 2011 at 11:14 PM.
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post #3 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 10th, 2011, 11:14 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Interesting topic. Thanks for starting this thread.
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post #4 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 10th, 2011, 11:17 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

1 (1) Lauren Embree FL 12
2 (2) Jacqueline Cako WA 6
3 (3) Allie Will FL 3

4 (4) Stephanie Hoffpauir CA 11
5 (5) Mallory Burdette GA 16
6 (6) Kate Turvy OH 10

7 (9) Gina Suarez FL 10
8 (7) Arianna Colffer CA 9
9 (8) Tayler Davis CA 4
10 (10) Sophie Chang CA 4
11 (11) Hana Tomljanovic FL 4
12 (12) Brynn Boren CA 17
13 (14) Erin Vierra MA 3
14 (13) Zoe De Bruycker CA 3
15 (17) Elizabeth Kilborn GA 3
16 (16) Cierra Gaytan-Leach CA 9
17 (15) Fidan Manashirov CA 7
18 (18) Catherine Isip CA 6
19 (19) Kristin Norton NY 3

20 (20) Rachael White IL 4
21 (22) Christin Newman NC 3
22 (21) Kelsey Sundaram TX 9
23 (23) Emma Levy NJ 8
24 (24) Gabrielle Steele OH 6
25 (25) Malika Rose FL 12
26 (26) Olga Khmylev NY 4
27 (28) Taylor Fournier KS 10
28 (27) Misia Krasowski IL 6
29 (30) Kelly Barry IL 14
30 (29) Hannah Berner NY 5
31 (32) Maria Fuccillo MD 9
32 (31) Elizabeth Epstein IL 3

bolded are blue chips, from tennisrecruiting.net
Tan, Lao are absent.
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post #5 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 10th, 2011, 11:54 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Tennisace I think it would be nice to list next to their names the teams these blue chip players were on and also list their national ranking if they had one.
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post #6 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 11th, 2011, 12:17 AM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Edit, I should have looked for myself, on Fantic's list class of 2009, and the last numbers are the number of tournaments played, according to the tenniscruiting.net archive.

But, I am still confused at what the archived tennisrecruiting list represents. Is it a snapshot from a certain point of time. Why are some players not included, and other players have only limited results represented?

Last edited by 2nd_serve; Jun 11th, 2011 at 12:39 AM.
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post #7 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 11th, 2011, 05:26 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2nd_serve View Post
Edit, I should have looked for myself, on Fantic's list class of 2009, and the last numbers are the number of tournaments played, according to the tenniscruiting.net archive.

But, I am still confused at what the archived tennisrecruiting list represents. Is it a snapshot from a certain point of time. Why are some players not included, and other players have only limited results represented?
Unfortunately using tennis recruiting as a tool is not always the best way to figure a blue chips value. So many blue chip players that were classified blue chip thru-out most of their junior career can change after the player commits to a college and will quit playing a lot of the junior tournaments and because of that they are downgraded to a 5-star player. Two of the new Michigan recruits coming in this year is a perfect example when they were downgraded and Critser from last year. One of the recruits this year was a top ten player most of her career and with playing fewer tournaments, she was dropped to a 5-star player. Michigan was the second highest recruiting class in the fall and with the downgrades they dropped them to four! TennisRecruiting might be the best system out there right now but they have some flaws in their system as well!
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post #8 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 11th, 2011, 05:44 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnytennis View Post
Unfortunately using tennis recruiting as a tool is not always the best way to figure a blue chips value. So many blue chip players that were classified blue chip thru-out most of their junior career can change after the player commits to a college and will quit playing a lot of the junior tournaments and because of that they are downgraded to a 5-star player. Two of the new Michigan recruits coming in this year is a perfect example when they were downgraded and Critser from last year. One of the recruits this year was a top ten player most of her career and with playing fewer tournaments, she was dropped to a 5-star player. Michigan was the second highest recruiting class in the fall and with the downgrades they dropped them to four! TennisRecruiting might be the best system out there right now but they have some flaws in their system as well!
Thanks for illuminating with specifics something I suspected. Good post.
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post #9 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 11th, 2011, 06:53 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

I'm taken back by the labels you are assigning to these players.........unbelievable lack of feeling in my opinion.
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post #10 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 14th, 2011, 11:24 AM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

How about adding high profile foreign players to the list.

Not Worth their Value
Klaudia Malenovska (Slovakia) - Long Beach St.

This was a player who:
- Had a WTA ranking high of 575.
- An ex-pro having turned 21 her freshman year
- Had a 6-3,6-1 win over 2010 NCAA champion Chelsey Gullickson in a $25K tourney
- Had not 1 but 2 wins over Julia Cohen in the juniors
- Cost LBS thousands in lawyer fees to appeal after being declared ineligible by NCAA

After sitting on her butt serving NCAA penalties during her freshman year Malenovska made her debut this past season. According to Form, Malenovska ran out of gas a couple times in matches, which is code for being out of shape. With all her credentials Malenovska hasn't won Big West Player of the Year, hasn't played in the NCAA singles tournament and didn't even play #1 singles on her own team. Now Malenovska is sitting on her butt again injured.

A player with Malenovska's resume going into a mid-major conference like the Big West had higher expectations coming in than the Miami Heat had coming into this NBA season. The great Hannah Grady couldn't even win 1 set in the NCAA singles tournament. The only player in Long Beach St. history to ever win a match in the NCAA singles tournament was 25 year old senior Jing Chen. Having a win over 2010 NCAA singles champ Chelsey Gullickson, Malenovska was expected to surpass Grady and at least win a match in the NCAA singles tourney, but so far Malenovska's been a bigger bust than LeBron James was against Dallas.

Last edited by gouci; Jun 14th, 2011 at 11:39 AM.
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post #11 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 14th, 2011, 02:49 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

I'm impressed with how much you know!
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post #12 of 12 (permalink) Old Jun 14th, 2011, 06:19 PM
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Re: Evaluating Blue Chips

I don't think it's fair to say Hanna Mar had limited value. She just didn't make the singles lineup because Duke had four seniors. I think she'll turn out to be a fine player. She won all her singles matches this year as I remember, and did pretty well in doubles.

Romney/Ryan 2012
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